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Thread: UPDATE: Reds & Homer Bailey agree on 6 yr / $105 Million Contract

  1. #61
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I have a really, really hard time believe the Reds will let Latos get out of Cincinnati.

    Cueto will likely be the odd man out, which is okay, you can't pay everyone. Leake they can probably get at an affordable rate.
    And I'm okay with that because I don't think Cueto is a good long term investment. As much as I love the guy.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Not picking apart those guys...

    But those might qualify as "perfect risks" to some (not me). Nothing more.

    I would say that no one in that 5 MM or less boat is a perfect solution for anything. Not a lottery ticket as some like to say, but more like a flip of the coin.
    I would have settled for imperfect solutions.

  4. #63
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    THe imperfect is better than nothing.
    Not really.

    The imperfect could be wasted payroll dollars that may have been spent more prudently.

    But in typical Redszone fashion, you will dispute that. (Just following your lead )

  5. #64
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I keep wondering about Stephen Drew, too. He's still out there. Would he make sense? I have to think a Bailey extension and a Stephen Drew for the top of the lineup would stoke folks around here up again.
    I like Drew, but even now he will cost more than the Reds are willing to spend. That doesn't even start to factor in the compensation pick you'd have to relinquish. If the money is there and I'm willing to give up a comp pick (which I'm not), I would sign Santana rather than Drew and then deal Cueto or Leake for a bat that is better, younger and pre-arb.

  6. #65
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    This has not happened yet.

    If it does, I doubt they extend Latos.
    If Latos (and his reps) are open to getting a deal done at something in the neighborhood of what Homer is rumored to be considering, I think they could probably afford it. There's a lot more cash coming into the coffers in 2015 and beyond.

    I think there's a fairly strong chance that some of this money is being brought to bear in Homer's case. I'm guessing that (if this does go down) he's probably not going to be paid much more than the S10-11M he was going to make in arb anyway with most of the deal back-loaded to avoid salary crunch this season.

    If they can get Latos signed as well, then I think the smart thing to do would be deal at least two of Cueto, Leake and Chapman for younger (cheaper) more reliable bats. Some of that would go toward the Bailey/Latos deal with more coming from expiring deals for Ludwick, Broxton, Marshall and possibly even moving Phillips. My issue with Bailey was never could they afford to sign him and another veteran starter. My doubts were with whether they could persuade Homer to sign without testing the market. I didn't think they could, hopefully Walt has managed it. Great news for the Reds if he has.

    The reset (and more can come from the media windfalls (and other new revenue streams that will become available soon).

    Build around Votto and Bruce on offense and Latos and Bailey and go young at as many sports as possible and the Reds should be fine. The Reds need a rule where no the only eight-figure yearly salaries they deal out are at the top of the rotation, in the middle of the order and( if their OBP ability is high enough) possibly a top of the order table-setter.

    The key is continually stirring in young talent to compliment the eight-figure studs.

  7. #66
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    And I'm okay with that because I don't think Cueto is a good long term investment. As much as I love the guy.
    If Latos can't be signed, then I would be OK with extending Jonny, but for no more than 3 years plus an option at the very most, something along the lines of 3yrs/$45M with a $16M option year and an $2M buyout. No more.

    Leake would have to be willing to sign for a bargain for me to keep him beyond next season.

  8. #67
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I can't imagine Latos will get close to Kershaw money. He's good, but he's not that good.
    Yet. He's still only 26. About to hit his prime years.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Looking two years down the road, starting pitching is the least of our worries. Assuming they can keep Leake in Cincinnati (and I can't see how they don't) if Latos and Cueto aren't here we are still looking at a rotation of Bailey, Cingrani, Stephenson, Leake, another prospect (Traveiso? Corcino?) or a free agent to round it out.

    That's still some good, budget friendly, pitching.

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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    If Latos can't be signed, then I would be OK with extending Jonny, but for no more than 3 years plus an option at the very most, something along the lines of 3yrs/$45M with a $16M option year and an $2M buyout. No more.

    Leake would have to be willing to sign for a bargain for me to keep him beyond next season.
    Not every pitcher is to have potential #1 stuff or throw 95 mph. Leake is still young, looks like he's started putting it together and is already pretty damn good.

    He'll be a 200 IP 3.5 ERA guy. He's had a few rough years but nothing disastrous, especially for a guy coming to the majors straight out of college. That's extremely hard to do. Even more so when you're not lighting up the radar gun. The kid has composure and the exact tools necessary to pitch a lot of innings at a decent level for a long time. I wouldn't hesitate to give him a deal when the time comes.

    Unless you work security at Macy's, what's not to love?

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  13. #70
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    I think he's probably more likely to be a 3.75-4.00 guy, but that's still not horrible.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.

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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    Not every pitcher is to have potential #1 stuff or throw 95 mph. Leake is still young, looks like he's started putting it together and is already pretty damn good.

    He'll be a 200 IP 3.5 ERA guy. He's had a few rough years but nothing disastrous, especially for a guy coming to the majors straight out of college. That's extremely hard to do. Even more so when you're not lighting up the radar gun. The kid has composure and the exact tools necessary to pitch a lot of innings at a decent level for a long time. I wouldn't hesitate to give him a deal when the time comes.

    Unless you work security at Macy's, what's not to love?
    Not saying there is no scenario where I would keep Leake, but if Latos or Cueto won't re-up and join Homer I think I might look at signing or acquiring a higher-ceiling arm than Leake's (although maybe he develops a higher ceiling in the next two years). Leake could probably be had for somewhere in the $8-10M range, but it those kind of contracts - for good but not great players that hamstring the budget and should be very limited.

    I'd deal him next season for more controllable talent. Same for guys like Frazier, Cozart and Mesaroco as they near their walk years unless they blow up. And Chapman if he's still in the pen.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 02-17-2014 at 03:53 AM.

  16. #72
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    Not every pitcher is to have potential #1 stuff or throw 95 mph. Leake is still young, looks like he's started putting it together and is already pretty damn good.

    He'll be a 200 IP 3.5 ERA guy. He's had a few rough years but nothing disastrous, especially for a guy coming to the majors straight out of college. That's extremely hard to do. Even more so when you're not lighting up the radar gun. The kid has composure and the exact tools necessary to pitch a lot of innings at a decent level for a long time. I wouldn't hesitate to give him a deal when the time comes.
    I could've sworn you were describing Bronson Arroyo here. And that is very much a compliment to Mr. Leake.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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  18. #73
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    Leake is (hopefully) the next Arroyo.

    I just do not see the Reds keeping Latos if they extend Homer, and I am OK with that.

    If they get this done I will be so happy, Homer needs to be a Red for a long time and go down as one of the greatest SPs in Reds history. ::
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 02-17-2014 at 07:16 AM.

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  20. #74
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m



    Nothing more need be said.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  21. #75
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    Re: Bailey and Reds nearing deal- 6y/100m

    This is 100 million that could have gone towards Latos. i wish the Reds had focused on Latos first and not Homer. This is going to end up as an reason that cannot resign Latos.


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