I think there's a fairly strong chance that some of this money is being brought to bear in Homer's case. I'm guessing that (if this does go down) he's probably not going to be paid much more than the S10-11M he was going to make in arb anyway with most of the deal back-loaded to avoid salary crunch this season.
If they can get Latos signed as well, then I think the smart thing to do would be deal at least two of Cueto, Leake and Chapman for younger (cheaper) more reliable bats. Some of that would go toward the Bailey/Latos deal with more coming from expiring deals for Ludwick, Broxton, Marshall and possibly even moving Phillips. My issue with Bailey was never could they afford to sign him and another veteran starter. My doubts were with whether they could persuade Homer to sign without testing the market. I didn't think they could, hopefully Walt has managed it. Great news for the Reds if he has.
The reset (and more can come from the media windfalls (and other new revenue streams that will become available soon).
Build around Votto and Bruce on offense and Latos and Bailey and go young at as many sports as possible and the Reds should be fine. The Reds need a rule where no the only eight-figure yearly salaries they deal out are at the top of the rotation, in the middle of the order and( if their OBP ability is high enough) possibly a top of the order table-setter.
The key is continually stirring in young talent to compliment the eight-figure studs.
Leake would have to be willing to sign for a bargain for me to keep him beyond next season.
Looking two years down the road, starting pitching is the least of our worries. Assuming they can keep Leake in Cincinnati (and I can't see how they don't) if Latos and Cueto aren't here we are still looking at a rotation of Bailey, Cingrani, Stephenson, Leake, another prospect (Traveiso? Corcino?) or a free agent to round it out.
That's still some good, budget friendly, pitching.
He'll be a 200 IP 3.5 ERA guy. He's had a few rough years but nothing disastrous, especially for a guy coming to the majors straight out of college. That's extremely hard to do. Even more so when you're not lighting up the radar gun. The kid has composure and the exact tools necessary to pitch a lot of innings at a decent level for a long time. I wouldn't hesitate to give him a deal when the time comes.
Unless you work security at Macy's, what's not to love?
I think he's probably more likely to be a 3.75-4.00 guy, but that's still not horrible.
numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.
Mike Honcho (02-17-2014)
I'd deal him next season for more controllable talent. Same for guys like Frazier, Cozart and Mesaroco as they near their walk years unless they blow up. And Chapman if he's still in the pen.
Last edited by corkedbat; 02-17-2014 at 03:53 AM.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
wlf WV (02-17-2014)
Leake is (hopefully) the next Arroyo.
I just do not see the Reds keeping Latos if they extend Homer, and I am OK with that.
If they get this done I will be so happy, Homer needs to be a Red for a long time and go down as one of the greatest SPs in Reds history. ::
Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 02-17-2014 at 07:16 AM.
Nothing more need be said.
99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
Bailey CYA winner
Hamilton ROY & GG
This is 100 million that could have gone towards Latos. i wish the Reds had focused on Latos first and not Homer. This is going to end up as an reason that cannot resign Latos.