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Thread: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

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    2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-...ule-projected/
    I pulled all the schedules off of MLB.com and put them into a spreadsheet. I gathered all the team-by-team projected WARs, as of the moment, and normalized them so that the sum came out to 1,000. For each team, I subsequently calculated the projected average 2014 WAR of their opponents. Here are the results, split by league, with the AL on the left and with the NL on the right, outlined in red for some reason.


    The Orioles have the toughest schedule overall, with an average projected opponent WAR of 35.6. The Tigers have the easiest schedule in the American League, with an average projected opponent WAR of 32.9. The Padres have the toughest schedule in the National League, with an average projected opponent WAR of 33.6. The Nationals have the easiest schedule overall, with an average projected opponent WAR of 30.4.

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    David Cubbedge (03-12-2014)

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Whichever projection system Sullivan is using has a pretty clear AL/NL fault line.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Whichever projection system Sullivan is using has a pretty clear AL/NL fault line.
    There's gotta be a way to "normalize" this because the main difference is the AL has one extra batter that skews all the stats.

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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    That graph is a little misleading. The scaling makes it look like the Orioles schedule is 10 times more difficult than the Nationals schedule.

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    Member villain612's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Poor Astros just can't catch a break.
    "I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball"

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    That graph is a little misleading. The scaling makes it look like the Orioles schedule is 10 times more difficult than the Nationals schedule.
    No, you just didn't read the axis. The graph begins at 30, not at 0.

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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    SOS will change with each game. Reds had one of the easiest schedules at the beginning of the season and, without checking, I believe they ended up around average.

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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    I would imagine any team that plays the Astros 18 times will have a much easier schedule than someone who does not play them at all. That would be about the only glaring difference in anyones schedule.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, you just didn't read the axis. The graph begins at 30, not at 0.
    I did read the axis. I know it starts at 30. Intuitively, both axes should start at 0. When they don't, the impression you get when glancing at it misleading. I don't like graphs that use that tactic. They're often used to further some sort of agenda rather presenting data in an unbiased format because most people don't do anything more than glance.

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    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    I did read the axis. I know it starts at 30. Intuitively, both axes should start at 0. When they don't, the impression you get when glancing at it misleading. I don't like graphs that use that tactic. They're often used to further some sort of agenda rather presenting data in an unbiased format because most people don't do anything more than glance.
    I'd add that using units like team logos is bad when not starting at the origin.
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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Strengths of Schedule, Projected

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    I would imagine any team that plays the Astros 18 times will have a much easier schedule than someone who does not play them at all. That would be about the only glaring difference in anyones schedule.
    That's why the Astros' schedule is so hard. They don't play the Astros!
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    757690 (03-12-2014), cumberlandreds (03-13-2014), Red in Chicago (03-12-2014), tomnuetten (03-13-2014)


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