I figured that since the season begins in less than a week, we might as well start this thread. Plus, the ORG has one posted, so why not join in on the fun?
I predict that the Reds finish 85-77, just missing the second Wild Card spot.
I figured that since the season begins in less than a week, we might as well start this thread. Plus, the ORG has one posted, so why not join in on the fun?
I predict that the Reds finish 85-77, just missing the second Wild Card spot.
This team seems to do better as the underdog. I'll be positive and pick them to go 93-69 winning the NL Central.
On a player note, I predict 40 homers from Bruce, Votto drives in 100 runs again, and Billy Hamilton has an OBP of .330.
Reds get off to a slow start due to some injuries with the pitching staff, but made a summer rally, go 89-73 and make the Wild Card round, where they win, but lose to the Dodgers in the Divisional Round.
87-75 is my guess. No playoff bid.
I just have a bad feeling about the season.
Okay, I am going to take the optimistic route, and say the Reds take the Central with a record of 95-67. Also, I will add that Hamilton's OBP will be close to .390, with Bruce breaking the 100 RBI barrier once again, plus Luddy will equal his 2012 performance.
The recent injuries have dampened some of my enthusiasm as well and spring training hasn't really excited me very much, since the games that I have seen have not been games where Votto or Phillips have looked good. There's lots of question marks for this year in terms of Chapman, how the bullpen will fare early on, if Hoover can be a potential closer for the club, how many times will Hamilton get himself on base, how Ludwick will do, how the Reds respond to a new manager, etc. Still, I think this team can contend so I went the optimistic track, but you are correct in that this season could also turn out to be a disaster if certain things don't go right.Originally Posted by LexRedsFan
The magic 8-ball is being shaken, and I see the Reds finishing 86-76, and falling short of a 90 win season for the first time in two years. Bryan Price will not receive the criticism that Baker did but will get a pass on not reaching the playoffs, let alone the second round of the playoffs.
OFFENSE
Billy Hamilton hits .254 with a .325 obp. He steals 57 bases, scores 86 runs, and plays a gold glove caliber defense.
Brandon Phillips hits .278 with a .305 obp. Phillips steals 12 bases, hits 15 home runs and drives in 69 runs. Again playing gold-glove defense.
Joey Votto hits .310 with an obp of.400 and a ops of .900, but once again fails to get 80 RBI's and defends his approach to hitting that three hole hitter does not have to drive in runs.
Jay Bruce hits .270 with 32 home runs and 94 rbi's, but has a HORRIFIC July slump. 25% of his entire offensive production will be in a three week span in May.
Ryan Ludwick plays in 125 games. He has one 15-day DL Ludwick hits .264 with 17 home runs and 63 rbis.
Todd Frazier fails to prove himself as an everyday third baseman, he hits .245 with 12 homeruns and 56 rbi. Frazier will be replaced in 2015.
Zach Cozart hits .275 with ten homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. He plays a nice quiet shortstop, and will solidify his role with the Reds for the next three years.
Devin Mesaroco hits .235 and will split time with Brayan Pena by August. The Reds will miss a quality pitch caller like Hanigan.
STARTERS
Mat Latos will have 30 starts this year and will finish 15-11 with a 3.56 era. He will refuse any long-term deal and his next team will be the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Home Bailey will have 30 starts, finish with 200+ innings and will be the ace of this staff as he nails down a 18-8 record.
Mike Leake will have 34 starts this season and he will lead the Reds in innings pitched, take over the Arroyo role and will have 3 quality outings for every 1 bad one.
Leake will be this years hard luck starter.
Johnny Cueto will have 20 starts this season, and will be on and off with injuries. The Reds will be considering to let him go after his contract expires.
Tony Cingrani will have 30 starts this season, but his era will be well over 4.00 as his lack of any off-speed pitches will haunt him. Closer discussion will begin.
Other starters picking up remaining starts--Stephenson is not ready, and the Reds resort to their AAA castoffs who will ultimately cost the Reds their 90 win season.
Bullpen
Broxton and Marshall repeat their injuries from 2013 and will be inconsistently available again throughout 2014. Much like Masset, Bray, and Madsen--the Reds Medical and Training staff will not be held accountable for fixing the Reds 8th inning set-up men.
Aroldis Chapman will begin pitching again in June, and after a few early set-backs, he will be in top closers form by July. Because the Reds will be without Cueto and Ludwick in July and Bruce will be hitting .167 for the entire month, the Reds will be 9 games out of first and The Reds will entertain offers for Chapman at the deadline. Chapman and Neftali Soto will be traded for a AA/AAA third baseman, who will be groomed to take Frazier's job in 2015.
LeCure will be the same steady presence he has always been, but will be forced to start in August as all other options have failed.
Simon will be the long reliever after failing to impress as a spot starter.
JJ Hoover has a decent two month run as the closer for the Reds prior to Chapman coming back, and will be one of the reasons the Reds trade Chapman at the deadline.
All other relievers will be eaten by Jumbo Diaz.
That is the 2014 Reds season.
Don't agree with everything, but love the thought and detail. Biggest miss is Hamilton. He'll be 40 points of OBP lower. I agree with a lot though.
Jumbo Diaz eating Logan Ondrusek could be a draw to sell a bunch of tickets. I'd pay to see it.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I could see the reds being a sub 500 team but I could also see them winning the second wild card spot with a big year by Bruce and Votto and getting healthy right in time. Pittsburgh will be hurt a bit by losing Burnett but ultimately I think Cole and Tailon take over that rotation and they give the Cardinals a solid run at the division. Either way the Reds window is just about closed it will be the Cards and Pirates battling for the division over the next 5 years until the Cubs are ready to compete again.
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