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Thread: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

  1. #1
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    The time is approaching for Bruce to get a new deal, if it's going to happen IMO. It's been discussed sparsely in various threads, but there's been no definitive thread for it. He'll be only 30 when he reaches free agency.

    Jay's agent remarked this offseason, and last offseason the same remarks. That Jay would like nothing more than to sign a contract that sees him finish his career in Cincinnati. (Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...oyo-johan.html)

    He was interested in doing this two years ago (Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...tension-1.html)

    I am at the point where I am settled and comfortable with the player Bruce is, which is a very high-end player, just short of being the superstar we all hoped for.

    I also feel like in a year like the one we're about to have - one that will be successful but again fall short of winning a postseason series - it will be enjoyable to watch Bruce continue his career milestones. He's a guy I enjoy going to the park to watch play on an every-day basis.

    I want to see the Reds lock up Bruce for his career as they've done with Votto. Do you see it happening? Why or why not?
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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Id love to see it happen but not sure they have another $100-120MM lying around in addition to $ for Lagos, Cueto, or Leake. However, ownership has proven me wrong before and I hope they do again.

    Matt
    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    I woke up this morning after having a dream that the Reds re-signed Bailey to a 5-yr $100MM deal. I hope I'm wrong.

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    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Well, Walt did say the new TV money will kick in next year. Latos may be more urgent, but Bruce has to be a priority, too. Obviously, Walt's focusing on keeping the talent. I think it will get done.

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    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    I'm not sure if they will as of now. I think it'll be very dependent on the outcome of Hamilton, Winker, Ervin, and YRod. If enough of them pan out to be solid players, Bruce could be dealt for help elsewhere on the team while keeping the offense cheap in order to pay for the pitching. If those guys don't pan out, then I think it'd be more likely that Bruce is extended.

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    If we are going to spend another $100-120M, I would rather spend it on Bruce than Latos or Cueto. Mostly, because I feel position players are safer investments than pitchers. Let's break them out.

    Bruce is 26

    2014 27 Cincinnati Reds $10,000,000
    2015 28 Cincinnati Reds $12,000,000
    2016 29 Cincinnati Reds $12,500,000
    2017 30 Cincinnati Reds $13,000,000 Team Option, $1M Buyout

    Latos is 26

    2014 26 Cincinnati Reds $7,250,000
    Earliest Arb Eligible: 2015, Earliest Free Agent: 2016

    Cueto is 28

    2014 28 Cincinnati Reds $10,000,000
    2015 29 Cincinnati Reds $10,000,000 Team Option, $800k Buyout
    Earliest Free Agent: 2015

    Cueto is a free agent first, then Latos, then Bruce. Choo just signed a deal for an AAV of ~$18.5M. How many years would you tack on to Bruce's deal? and at what cost?

    I think I'd give Bruce the option around $70M to add 4 years (AAV $17.5M) [Changes current deal to 8 years $14.7M], or something around $57-60M (AAV $19-20) for 3 years [Changes current deal to 7 years $15.4M].

    Those numbers are probably conservative (Bruce likely gets much more the closer he gets to FA if he stays his current self or improves), but there is no rush at this point for the Reds to go much higher. They have the leverage at this point. If Bruce stays healthy over the next 4 seasons, he will more than outplay the dollars the Reds are on the hook for.

    Cueto and Latos who I'd love to extend I think present more risk in health and dollars to the Reds.


    **All that said, I think we should sign all three of them after Bob wins the Powerball**

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    Ghosts of 1990 (02-20-2014)

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    I will say that an extension for Bruce looms in my mind as well. I think if they ever wanted to do one, it could likely be completed in short order. The cost would only have to be going up the further they get away from the extension that Longoria signed, within weeks of when we first heard that Bruce wanted one.

    It should be noted, that the strength of the Reds farm system would have to be in the OF, and that estimated arrivals of those outfielders would coincide with Bruce approaching free agency. With a possibility of Hamilton in CF, with Winker in LF, and Ervin perhaps the heir in RF, coupled with the likes of Yorman and LaMarre as depth options, maybe the team feels Bruce would be more valuable to the team in 2016-2017, as a trade commodity.

    If the team is waiting to see how Bruce progresses before giving him an extension, then they are really either risking him pricing his way out of town, if he takes a step forward, or saying what he currently is, is not worth an extension.

    Personally, I don't feel that the Reds other potential extension candidates effect Bruce's situation, as a new contract for Bruce would start up in 2018, and could perhaps be backloaded to where the money he would be making would likely only run concurrently with the last years of any deal for a pitcher.

    One other factor that could be a holdup, is that Bruce's current deal is extremely similar to Justin Upton and Andrew McCutcheon's deals, and perhaps the Reds would like to see what kind of offers that they may extend for, to see how they would relate to Bruce.

    If it was me, I would love to see Bruce and the Reds come to an agreement, sooner rather than later.

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    I think we should have given Bruce the LT deal when he was Asking for it a year or two ago...
    Could have gotten him on the (relative) cheap, no way we get a guy cheaper then when HE asks for an extension and saying he wanted to retire a Red which basically indicates a hometown discount.
    He can only get more expensive if he has a breakout year - heck he's already made 2 All Star games - and with him hitting 4th now that's almost a foregone conclusion that his numbers will increase.

    I didn't see the downside then - don't see it now.
    He can only price himself out of town now. He can be an even better trade chip with a bargain contract.
    Something else must be going on and I'm not sure what it is.
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Reds can wait on this one 2 or 3 years at that time we'll know what we have in Winkler, Ervin, Hamilton, and Yorman all who project to be MLB players. The next key is to get Latos wrapped up long term, then address Mes, Cozart, and Frazier in two years...

    John Sickels ranks all these guys this year. This is his ranking system.

    Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.


    Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

    2) Billy Hamilton, OF, Grade B+: Normally I am a skeptic about speed players, but Hamilton is off-the-charts on that tool and I think there is more in the bat than he showed last year. At worst he should be something like Vince Coleman. If he can get on-base at a remotely-adequate clip, his speed will be incredibly disruptive.

    3) Phillip Ervin, OF, Grade B+: A more balanced, complete player than Hamilton with 20/20 potential to go with on-base ability. I’d like to see him at higher levels but he should be a valuable investment in a long-term fantasy league and a solid regular outfielder.

    4) Jesse Winker, OF, Grade B+: Good power and on-base ability stood out in Low-A, met or exceeded all expectations for a supplemental first-rounder. A future outfield of Hamilton in center, Ervin and Winker on the corners would be extremely intriguing if they live up to their potential.

    9) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: Remains more potential than production but has made some progress over the last year. Contact remains troublesome but the tools remain interesting and he’s still just 21.

    The thing about Yorman is he is in AA, but is younger than Ervin who is two levels below him...

  15. #9
    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    When is Chapman eligible for the big money?

    This organization has some tough decisions to make.
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    The Reds dropped the ball here. Bruce asked for a LTD a while back, presumably for a reasonable price before the explosion in contracts, and Walt refused. Maybe he didn't have the resources, but bad move. Reds will undoubtedly pay more now than they would have before.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 02-21-2014 at 12:20 AM.

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    I forget about Chapman. Honestly, he'd be low priority for me unless he decides he'll start. He's fun to watch, but it's frustrating to wonder how valuable he could be in the rotation. I think he may be more valuable as a trade chip than as a keeper.

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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Is it ok to let the current contract play out a bit? I guess maybe it has. I am getting old, seems like just yesterday he signed the six year deal his is currently on.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Dude is under contract for three more years with a team friendly option for a fourth.

    Little early to start working on the next contract.
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    The Reds dropped the ball here. Bruce asked for a LTD a while back, presumably for a reasonable price before the explosion in contracts, and Walt refused. Maybe he didn't have the resources, but bad move. Reds will undoubtedly pay more now than they would have before.
    itīs a gamble and easy to judge in retroperspectice. If you wait and see what bruce (and the of prospects) produce it could cost them big money (if bruce performs great and the prospects donīt )

    on the other side you can evaluate what you get from bruce even longer without the risk of overpayment in an early contract. if bruce has a down year heīll be cheaper again...
    it is a gamble and not fair to criticize the organisation in retroperspective

  25. #15
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Do you see the Reds signing Bruce to a long-term extension?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Dude is under contract for three more years with a team friendly option for a fourth.

    Little early to start working on the next contract.
    So maybe I am NOT as old as all that. Or I am. In any event...this.

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