2014 NFL Draft

[Kingspoint]

A thread titled "NFL 2013" doesn't seem appropriate for discussing the 2014 NFL draft, so I'm starting a new one.

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Here's what it comes down to with all of these Quarterbacks...

A roomful of well-paid adult males will collectively decide to gamble their livelihoods on QB who's not ready and may never be. In May, it'll be fascinating to see which group shoves their chips into the middle of the table first.


Perhaps someone can start a "2014 NFL" thread.

[Kingspoint]

From Rotoworld w/ Rotoworld comments:

Vikings coach Mike Zimmer grilled Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel over his "flags" in a meeting a day after his pro day workout.

"We asked him all kinds of questions. We went to dinner with him the night after (his pro day). We talked to him at the combine. There are some flags that come up," Zimmer said. "All of the things that happened out in Los Angeles, the commercials and all that stuff. The position of quarterback in the NFL is such an important position and the reason these guys need to be a totally football-minded guy is the pressure of the position and being the face of an NFL team and doing everything right." Manziel is likely ticketed for the top 10, and Minnesota, which owns the No. 8 pick, has been a popular destination for the Aggies' star in mock drafts. It remains to be seen if he'll still be on the board on that point, and it's possible that Zimmer's tepid comments regarding Manziel are a smokescreen to mask the club's interest in him.

Source: NFL.com

[Kingspoint]

Mario-Rijo's early mock draft...

Done a 1st round mock on another board recently I wanted to tweak & then run past you guys and see what you all think.....keep in mind it's early and I haven't done all my normal research yet so it's a work in progress & your input will be much appreciated.

#1 - Texans - QB Blake Bortles
#2 - Rams - WR Sammy Watkins
#3 - Jags - DE Jadeveon Clowney
#4 - Browns - OLB Khalil Mack
#5 - Raiders - OT Greg Robinson
#6 - Falcons - OLB Anthony Barr
#7 - Bucs - TE Eric Ebron
#8 - Vikings - QB Teddy Bridgewater
#9 - Buffalo - OT Jake Matthews
#10 - Lions - CB Justin Gilbert
#11 - Titans - S Calvin Pryor
#12 - N.Y.G - LB CJ Mosley
#13 - Rams - S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
#14 - Bears - DT Aaron Donald
#15 - Steelers - CB Darqueze Dennard
#16 - Dallas - DE Kony Ealy
#17 - Ravens - OT Taylor Lewan
#18 - N.Y.J - WR Mike Evans
#19 - Miami - DT Tim Jernigan
#20 - Arizona - OT Cyrus Kouandjio
#21 - G.B. - OL Zack Martin
#22 - Eagles - CB Bradley Roby
#23 - Chiefs - WR Odell Beckham Jr.
#24 - Bengals - OL Joel Bitonio
#25 - Chargers - CB Bashaud Breeland
#26 - Browns (From Indy) - QB Derek Carr
#27 - Saints - DE Dee Ford
#28 - Panthers - WR Marquise Lee
#29 - Patriots - NT Louis Nix III
#31 - 49ers - OLB Ryan Shazier
#30 - Broncos - OLB Jerry Attaochu
#32 - Seahawks - WR Kelvin Benjamin

(3 more 2nd rounders of interest here)

#34 - Redskins - WR Brandin Cooks - *Skins 1st selection
#39 - Jags - QB Johnny Manziel - *Manziel intrigue
#59 - Colts - OC/OG Marcus Martin - *Colts 1st selection
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 03-25-2014 at 09:06 AM.

[JaxRed]

I think the Jags would be ok with that scenario.....

[mdccclxix]

Looks to be a strong LB draft, I think it might be time to go back to the well for a stud LB to replace Maluga or otherwise upgrade the position group. A LB good in coverage is all this Bengals defense was missing the last 3 years. They have depth on the D line, depth at CB (I believe in Kirkpatrick), they don't have much quality depth at LB. That said, I will not hate if they get a good CB or DE in the first round. You can't have too many of them. I also like the idea of drafting an OL, maybe a top rated center. In fact, I think that's the weakest spot on offense year after year.

Bengals needs:
1) Center
2) LB
3) OL depth
4) CB depth/kick returner
5) DE depth
6) WR/kick returner

[bucksfan2]

Looks to be a strong LB draft, I think it might be time to go back to the well for a stud LB to replace Maluga or otherwise upgrade the position group. A LB good in coverage is all this Bengals defense was missing the last 3 years. They have depth on the D line, depth at CB (I believe in Kirkpatrick), they don't have much quality depth at LB. That said, I will not hate if they get a good CB or DE in the first round. You can't have too many of them. I also like the idea of drafting an OL, maybe a top rated center. In fact, I think that's the weakest spot on offense year after year.

Bengals needs:
1) Center
2) LB
3) OL depth
4) CB depth/kick returner
5) DE depth
6) WR/kick returner

Can't get on board with this. Center may be a need but I don't consider it the most pressing and hope they don't use an early pick on one. You just don't get value there. IMO LB is one of their strongest positions with Burfict and Rey being good players and Maualuga being adequate. Although if Shazier is there and they take him I would be happy (little bias here). OL depth is always important but I sure wouldn't put it ahead of CB. My list would be...
1) CB
2) S
3) OL
4) DE
5) RB
6) C

The Bengals in the past have "overdrafted" for DE depth. Guys like Dunlap and Hunt were taken in the 2nd when there were more pressing needs. I wouldn't mind if they took the BPA that wasn't a need if they felt that player would be an impact player. I would be upset if they went OL, QB, WR, or RB in the first, not needs and not positions you get great value in.

[Caveat Emperor]

I have a really tough time believing that Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater (possibly even Carr) make it out of the top-15 or so picks.

There are too many QB-needy teams to pass on the opportunity, especially given the rookie wage scales that all but ensure that a holdout won't happen and set the development process back.

Unless you get incredibly lucky with a journeyman/career backup, you're pretty much drawing dead from Week 1 in the NFL if you don't have a QB that can win you games.

[IslandRed]

I have a really tough time believing that Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater (possibly even Carr) make it out of the top-15 or so picks.

There are too many QB-needy teams to pass on the opportunity, especially given the rookie wage scales that all but ensure that a holdout won't happen and set the development process back.

Unless you get incredibly lucky with a journeyman/career backup, you're pretty much drawing dead from Week 1 in the NFL if you don't have a QB that can win you games.

It's not just the rookie wage scale. It used to be a truism that QBs needed to sit a year or two, even the highly drafted ones. With the rare exceptions e.g. Marino, if a QB did play as a rookie, it was understood it was to going to go badly at first. Now, if they have it in them to succeed they succeed sooner rather than later.* So that's another point in favor of rolling the dice.

* I'm not sure why this is. My favorite theory is the one that says NFL defenses have become so complex and good at disguising that it's become impossible to teach reading defenses in paint-by-numbers fashion. It's almost become like playing point guard (or video games), where a guy has to be able to visually process complex info and get the right answer in real time the first time. After that, the physical attributes play into it, but ultimately a QB's brain can either keep up or it can't.

[WrongVerb]

If anyone is interested, here's a pretty good draft simulator for your entertainment. The premium service is $5 and allows trades and a few other things. Pretty cool.

[Kingspoint]

* I'm not sure why this is. My favorite theory is the one that says NFL defenses have become so complex and good at disguising that it's become impossible to teach reading defenses in paint-by-numbers fashion. It's almost become like playing point guard (or video games), where a guy has to be able to visually process complex info and get the right answer in real time the first time. After that, the physical attributes play into it, but ultimately a QB's brain can either keep up or it can't.

QB's used to get crushed by opposing players. That's not a situation you want to put a rookie QB into. The results are usually permanent damage to their mental ability to play QB in the NFL. Marino was the exception because he got rid of the ball sooner than anybody in the NFL. He didn't get hit because of it. He had other attributes, but his ability to get rid of the ball fast was the most important one for being able to play as a Rookie back in 1983(?).

Now, Defenses can't touch a QB, they can't touch a Receiver after five yards. They can't hit a Receiver in certain areas or at certain moments. QB's can dump a ball when they're scrambling and not take a sack under most conditions. QB's can run and take off and still not get hit as long as they slide feet first. All of this makes it much, much easier for a Rookie QB to succeed. While Defenses are much more complicated to read, the coddling of QB's and WR's far make up for the difference.

There's also 32 teams, many more than there were back in the 70's when QB's generally sat 3-4 years before getting a chance to start a game. There simply isn't enough quality QB's to be legitimate starters for 32 teams, no matter how easy the NFL tries to make it for them. There's always now at least half a dozen teams in desperate need of a QB, so the dice are always going to be rolled and the chips are always going to be shoved all-in (drafting a 3rd-round QB in the 1st Round and a 4th/5th Round QB in the 2nd Round).


I don't think Bortles is much of a risk, but when it means passing up a Clowney, Watkins, Mack and Robinson then it truly is a risk vs the likelihood of what one gets with the other four.

But, Manziel? Huge risk. Mike Zimmer's from Texas. Football is serious business in that State. Here's something from Zimmer on Manziel...

From Rotoworld w/ Rotoworld comments:

Vikings coach Mike Zimmer grilled Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel over his "flags" in a meeting a day after his pro day workout. "We asked him all kinds of questions. We went to dinner with him the night after (his pro day). We talked to him at the combine. There are some flags that come up," Zimmer said. "All of the things that happened out in Los Angeles, the commercials and all that stuff. The position of quarterback in the NFL is such an important position and the reason these guys need to be a totally football-minded guy is the pressure of the position and being the face of an NFL team and doing everything right." Manziel is likely ticketed for the top 10, and Minnesota, which owns the No. 8 pick, has been a popular destination for the Aggies' star in mock drafts. It remains to be seen if he'll still be on the board on that point, and it's possible that Zimmer's tepid comments regarding Manziel are a smokescreen to mask the club's interest in him.

Source: NFL.com


Bridgewater? I like him better than Manziel.

Carr? I don't think he'll ever become a decent starter in the NFL. I think his ceiling is career backup, and I don't think he's that good. I don't see Carr in the league eight years from now. That's not a 1st/2nd/3rd Round QB. That's someone you take in the 6th or later.

Thankfully, because of the rookie scale, teams don't have to waste a large percentage of a team's cap space on a potential flop, handcuffing a franchise's fans for years, such as Stafford in Detroit (Detroit obviously has other issues, but with Ford dead, maybe they can move on).

[Caveat Emperor]

The modern NFL offenses are enormous, complex, giant machines of route combinations, hot reads, progressions, blocking assignments and endless arrays of formations. The level of complexity is such that the only real way to learn is by doing. Now, thanks to advances in camera work, digital technology, and mass-storage, mistakes on the field can be diagnosed almost immediately and corrected in the film room on Monday -- a process that used to be labor intensive (building the coaching film) can now be accomplished in a matter of seconds (or even on the fly during a game). It makes starting a rookie in the NFL a lot easier (and lot more of a learning + playing process) than it was even a decade or two ago.

Plus, you have to remember who these rookies are competing against in most situations. Most rookies get drafted by teams that have massive issues at QB -- you look at the top 8 picks, and here are the projected starters:

1. HOU - Case Keenum
2. STL - Sam Bradford
3. JAX - Chad Henne
4. CLE - Brian Hoyer
5. OAK - Matt Schaub
6. ATL - Matt Ryan
7. TB - Josh McCown
8. MIN - Christian Ponder / Matt Cassell

Outside of Matt Ryan (and MAYBE Sam Bradford), that's a pile of awful right there. A rookie with any modicum of talent should have no problem unseating any of these guys as starters -- and in the odd event that the vet remains the starter, most of these guys are almost surefire bets to be playing poorly enough to lose their jobs by midseason anyway. Why let these guys wait? If the idea is to mentor your young QB, do you really want him learning by watching bums like Josh McCown and Chad Henne play?

[Kingspoint]

If the idea is to mentor your young QB, do you really want him learning by watching bums like Josh McCown and Chad Henne play?

No. It'd be best if they were behind a decent QB. When there were a lot fewer franchises, most teams had established QB's, so the waiting time of 3-4 years made more sense. As you pointed out, there are just too many QB-needy teams every year.

Of those teams you listed, and you can include #9 Buffalo in that mix, these same teams were on this list last season. So, one year of drafting QB's in the 1st and 2nd round by these teams did not solve their problems. And, when does Arizona replace Palmer, Cincinnati replace Dalton, if he doesn't work out, the Jets need a QB, and Denver and New England are two years from needing a new QB.

There's simply a constant need for QB's in the league with 32 teams competing for the limited resources.

[bucksfan2]

In regards to Bridgewater there is something that I don't like about him but just can't place it. In the games I saw him play he looks like a finesse QB. He reminds me of a guy who can make the pretty deep throw but doesn't do well when the pocket is collapsing. He has the ability to get outside the pocket and make things happen with his legs, but not like a Manziel. Maybe a Jeff Blake or even a taller and more athletic Chris Leak.

[Ohayou]

If anyone is interested, here's a pretty good draft simulator for your entertainment. The premium service is $5 and allows trades and a few other things. Pretty cool.

Here's what I came up with:

R1, 24 - CB Jason Verrett TCU
R2, 55 - OT Billy Turner North Dakota State
R3, 88 - RB Carlos Hyde Ohio State
R4, 123 - DE Will Clarke West Virginia
R5, 164 - QB Tom Savage Pittsburgh
R6, 199 - WR Kevin Norwood Alabama
R6, 212 - CB Aaron Colvin Oklahoma
R7, 239 - S Alden Darby Arizona State
R7, 252 - OLB Jonathan Brown Illinois

[WrongVerb]

Here's one of mine (with some trades mixed in)

31
CB KYLE FULLER
VIRGINIA TECH

55
RB CARLOS HYDE
OHIO STATE

95
C WESTON RICHBURG
COLORADO STATE

114
DT ANTHONY JOHNSON
LSU

123
WR MARTAVIUS BRYANT
CLEMSON

148
G ANTHONY STEEN
ALABAMA

164
DE KAREEM MARTIN
NORTH CAROLINA

199
TE JACOB PEDERSEN
WISCONSIN

212
CB VICTOR HAMPTON
SOUTH CAROLINA

252
QB JEFF MATTHEWS
CORNELL