Joey Votto on 'Intentional Talk' Yesterday

[jordan_tm]

Can't say that I've ever seen Joey quite like this before. Entertaining, nonetheless...

[suiz]

Cooooooool!

[Tracy Jones]

You know what would be great?

If Votto started driving the ball again like he was before that fateful slide into 3rd base in early July 2012.

That would make me really happy.

[klw]

Great! I wish there were a thousand gif's of this.

[jfleur87]

You know what would be great?

If Votto started driving the ball again like he was before that fateful slide into 3rd base in early July 2012.

That would make me really happy.

You must be fun at parties.

Joey will be Joey. Think we have to accept it. He hit 24 HRs in a down year (if you only consider RBIs in your estimation). Not many players will hit over 30 this year. Only 3 NL players hit 30 or more in 2013.

Only thing I want Joey to do is be more aggressive in RBI situations (i.e., today with Billy on 3rd to start the game).

[Tracy Jones]

You must be fun at parties.

Joey will be Joey. Think we have to accept it. He hit 24 HRs in a down year (if you only consider RBIs in your estimation). Not many players will hit over 30 this year. Only 3 NL players hit 30 or more in 2013.

Only thing I want Joey to do is be more aggressive in RBI situations (i.e., today with Billy on 3rd to start the game).

Fun at parties? Talking about Votto not being what he was pre-injury or should be considering his contract is some sort of buzzkill to you?

Ok.

You're right about the RBI situations. He's paid to be a middle of the order hammer in this lineup, and frankly ever since he hurt his knee, he hasn't been that.

[Kai Slater]

That was pretty funny there. I know Joey was coming out of his shell a bit with his call-in spots on WLW, but this takes it to another level. It looks like he's relaxed and having fun with the game. Here's to a great season from Joey.

[Larry Schuler]

He's Mark Grace in a Reds uniform.

He's John Olerud with an even harder head.

He's Hal Morris in a Mountie uniform.

He's James Lonely holding a $6 latte.

He's Sean Casey with a weaker hug.

He's Lyle Overbay from over the Great Lakes bay.

He's the anti-Chris Denorfia.

He's a punching judy hitter who dreamt he was an MVP and he loved it.

[KYExtemper]

There isn't a lot of "protection" for Joey in the current lineup either. Bruce shows signs of consistency from time to time behind him, but struggles against left handed pitching and Brandon Phillips has had some struggles as well. Having a leadoff guy not getting on base consistently is also giving him problems in getting solid pitches to hit.

[Tracy Jones]

He's Mark Grace in a Reds uniform.

He's John Olerud with an even harder head.

He's Hal Morris in a Mountie uniform.

He's James Lonely holding a $6 latte.

He's Sean Casey with a weaker hug.

He's Lyle Overbay from over the Great Lakes bay.

He's the anti-Chris Denorfia.

He's a punching judy hitter who dreamt he was an MVP and he loved it.

The important word is in bold. Justin Morneau was once an MVP too.

Look, Votto is obviously still a very good player in his current form. However, he's also currently not the player the Reds payed for 2 years ago, or the player the Reds need him to be with the way the team is currently constructed.

Do you think they'd have the inconsistencies they have on offense if Votto was say...like Miguel Cabrera? Or what Votto was from 2010-mid 2012? I don't.

He's not paid to merely get on base. He's paid to slug .550-.600, and that's what this lineup needs him to do in order to be consistent and successful.

[Don Votto]

Look, I am sure someone on here will give me and I guess Tracy Jones (love your show) some stats about OPS, rc, WAR, OPS++ squared--or some other inane Saber stat that is how we ogre-like fans cannot appreciate or love Votto... but the fact is, Tracy is right.

I appreciate Votto and the player he is--but baseball history is replete with GREAT players who lose their power, lose their slugging--whether it is injuries, or just age, or something in the water--pre 1998--this was the inevitable fate of players--

A few cases in point....
I was a kid that grew up in the 1980's I loved watching Mattingly, Will Clark, Dale Murphy, Eric Davis, (but Lord some of the mid 1980's Cincinnati teams with studs like Wayne Krenchiki, Paul Householder, Duane Walker, and Nick Esasky were sometimes UNBEARABLE to stomach.--(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1986 TRACY JONES, of course.)

But, anyways, I am getting off topic...
If you would have told me in 1987 that a 26 year-old Don Mattingly would NEVER hit more than 25 home runs in a season again or NEVER have a slugging percentage higher than .828, (after 3 straight .300+, 30hr, 100rbi seasons--I would have laughed all day long--

If you would have told me in 1987 that a 31 year old Dale Murphy (who in the previous six years averaged .290, 35+, 100+ RBI (1986 sucked) AND a 2 time MVP) would fail to hit 25 home runs, and only once approach a .270 seasonal batting average for the rest of his career --I would have laughed and mocked you all day long.

If you would have told me in 1989 that a 29 year old Eric Davis (coming off a three year span where he averaged 33 home runs, 33 stolen bases, 98 rbis and around a .285 average per season) would play sporadically for the rest of his career--have a few bright moments, but never come close to the player he was at 27-28-29, I would have laughed all day long.

If you would have told me in 1991 that a 27 year old Will Clark (coming off a five year span where he averaged 25 hr's 100+ rbi's, and had an OPS+ average score of 150) would, for the remainder of his career hit 20+ home runs only two more times, I would have laughed and mocked you all day long.

The point being-- there is precedent for a player to hit a high point in his mid-late 20's, and have a solid career afterwards, but never attain their old form. However, the fan romanticizes and believes that the player that performed those incredible feats is going to rekindle something, when perhaps--that part of their game is gone.

I am not writing Votto off--but, I am just saying--I have seen it happen too many times before--that's all.

[RedTeamGo!]

Look, I am sure someone on here will give me and I guess Tracy Jones (love your show) some stats about OPS, rc, WAR, OPS++ squared--or some other inane Saber stat that is how we ogre-like fans cannot appreciate or love Votto... but the fact is, Tracy is right.

"Look, I am sure someone will prove us wrong with facts, but the fact is Tracy is right...because RBI!!"

[CoachBombay]

You do realize that if Votto were to replicate the numbers he had last year for the remainder of his contract he would go down as the greatest offensive player the Reds have ever had and be a first ballot hall of famer? Maybe we should focus on the 4-5 guys on the roster that cant hit. You can say what you want about Votto not driving in runs not doing this not doing that. But he still hit something like .290 with runners in scoring position last year in his "down year" And if you were a pitcher, you know the Reds lineup is weak, so you are not going to let Votto beat you and you arent going to give him much to hit

[Don Votto]

RedTeamGo! and CoachBombay--

I am not sure if you two actually read my entire post--I do realize it was a bit lengthy, but the key point I was attempting to make is that there are careers when a great hitter or a slugger (for whatever reason) loses their power, and thus their effectiveness--and they are not the player they were earlier in their career. But WE AS FANS cannot or will not accept that their abilities have tarnished. (I thought I made it simple enough with citing Mattingly, Murphy, Clark, and Davis--but apparently not.)

I believe what Tracy Jones is saying is that since Votto's knee injury, he is NOT the hitter he once was.

Votto said it himself on Sportstalk with Lance McAlister, when asked about the 2013 season--he said physically he felt he had age 5 to 10 years overnight, and his bat was uncharacteristically slow. That, for most of the season, he could not square the ball through the middle, but instead could hit it down the left-field line.

I will give you stats that, to me, definitely show that Votto's power is NOT NEARLY as close to what it was from 2009 to 2012 (pre-injury)

Furthermore, his loss of power greatly diminishes his RBI performance--and it is this power loss (and NOT the people hitting around him) that is cause for concern as well as one of the main reasons why Votto's RBI total's have dropped since post-injury 2012.

To me, I am not so quick to jump at the conclusion that Votto's walk rate establishes that he is being pitched around, but I believe it to be a change in his approach to the plate. In my opinion only if Votto were TRULY being pitched around, his strikeout percentage (because pitchers walk him at a higher rate) would decreased throughout his career, but he is staying at close to 19% from 2009-2013.

Also, Votto's 4-5 hitters (and their numbers at least) are pretty much consistent throughout his career. I don't think pitchers/scouts/MLB woke up after Votto's 2011 and said, you know for four years Votto has had No protection, so now, let's make a conscience effort and walk him 5% more of the time.

Votto's set-up men have been HISTORICALLY bad, with the exception of 2013.
(see below)

And yet, with those set-up men in front of Votto and average support behind him (if he had played in 162 games every year from 2009-before injury 2012) would have had his lowest RBI output of 99 RBI.

Instead--after Votto's injury, because of his lack of power since the injury RBI totals have fallen by 25%
And, I don't need to remind anyone that last year, Votto had Choo hitting in front of him (which was a superior upgrade to ANYTHING Votto had from 2009-2012--and meanwhile, had his average 4/5 hitters behind him (with little variance from year to year)

Coach Bombay-- I like Joey Votto--I really do. But, if Votto has six more years of 2013 (and to me it will be less as he ages) Cooperstown is not a certainty.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, and that 2013 is an anomaly, but Votto will be 31 before this season is over, and perhaps his 12% XBH per plate appearance are behind him. And, if that is the case, and if his XBH% keeps sliding down... then 20-25 million per season until 2023 is awfully hard to swallow.

Year	Games	Total XBH	WALKS	STRIKEOUTS	XBH% PER PA	WALKS% PER PA	STRIKEOUT% PER PA
2009	131	64	70	106	544	12%	13%	19%
2010	150	75	91	125	648	12%	14%	19%
2011	161	72	110	129	719	10%	15%	18%
2012	111	58	94	85	475	12%	20%	18%
2013	162	57	135	138	726	8%	19%	19%
SINCE THE INJURY	197	67	174	169	870	8%	20%	19%

In 2009
Votto drove in 84 runs in 131 games (for full 162 season that equates 10 100 rbi)

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Taveras, Stubbs, Hairston, Janish, Dickerson
OBP of the table setters
Chris Dickerson .370
Drew Stubbs .323
Jerry Hairston .305
Willie Taveras .275
Paul Janish .296

The 4 hitter--Brandon Phillips
.329 OBP .447 SLG .776 OPS

The 5 hitter--Rolen, Bruce, Nix, Hernandez, Gomes
ROLEN .364 OBP .401 SLG .766 OPS
BRUCE .303 OBP .470 SLG .773 OPS
NIX .291 OBP .476 SLG .767 OPS
HERNANDEZ .336 OBP .362 SLG .699 OPS
GOMES .338 OBP .541 SLG .879 OPS

IN 2010
Votto drove in 113 runs in 150 games [122 if 162 game played]

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Phillips/Cabrera
Brandon Phillips .332 OBP
Orlando Cabrera .303 OBP

4 hitter-Scott Rolen/Gomes/Bruce
Rolen .358 OBP .497 SLG .854 OPS
Gomes .327 OBP .431 SLG .758 OPS
Bruce .353 OBP .493 SLG .846 OPS

IN 2011
Votto drove in 103 runs in 161 games [103 if 162 game played]

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Phillips/Cabrera
Stubbs .321 OBP
Phillips .353 OBP
Renteria .306 obp

4 hitter-Bruce/Phillips
Bruce .341 OBP .474 SLG .814 OPS
Phillips .353 OBP .457 SLG .810 OPS


IN 2012
Votto drove in 56 runs in 111 games [82 RBI if 162 GAME played]

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Cozart/Stubbs
Cozart .288 OBP
Stubbs .277 OBP


4/5 hitter-Phillips/Ludwick/Bruce
Phillips .321 OBP .429 SLG .750 OPS
Ludwick .346 OBP .531 SLG .877 OPS
Bruce .327 OBP .514 SLG .841 OPS

IN 2012--prior to injury
Votto drove in 47 runs in 77 games [99 RBI if 162 GAME played]

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Cozart/Stubbs
Cozart .288 OBP
Stubbs .277 OBP


4/5 hitter-Phillips/Ludwick/Bruce
Phillips .321 OBP .429 SLG .750 OPS
Ludwick .346 OBP .531 SLG .877 OPS
Bruce .327 OBP .514 SLG .841 OPS

IN 2013
Votto drove in 73 runs in 162 games [73 RBI if 162 GAME played]

The 1-2 table setters were a combination of Choo/Cozart
Choo .423 OBP
Cozart .284 OBP


4/5 hitter-Phillips/Bruce
Phillips .310 OBP .396 SLG .706 OPS
Bruce .329 OBP .478 SLG .807 OPS

[jordan_tm]

I thought we were talking about a funny video? lol