Joey Votto on 'Intentional Talk' Yesterday

[RedTeamGo!]

If Votto has 6 straight years of 2013 he is absolutely a certainty for the HoF. No question about it. You are forgetting power numbers are down across the league. Only 3 batters in the NL had 30 or more home runs last season.

Votto had the 7th most in the NL.
Votto had 10th highest Slugging % in the NL.


On top of that Votto had:

Highest BB% in NL (3% higher than 2nd best)
Highest OBP in the NL

[Don Votto]

Let's say for whatever reason, Votto has exact same numbers until 2019, then retires. To me, he is not a lock. He would be a sabermetric versus traditional argument.

If he did the above,
Votto
BA .309
HR 301
RBI 969
OBP .427
SLG .502
OPS .929

Now, if Votto wins batting titles, Rbi, hr...
Reds win post season/world series
Maybe mvps/gold gloves... etc.

But traditionalists will compare the first three and say... nope. Not good enough.
Brian Kenny will say yes.

I have a hard time believing he stays that consistent. I hope he does

[RedTeamGo!]

He already has won an MVP and GG.

I don't really understand how someone can look at those numbers + an MVP and not think HOF. It is just bizarre to me.

[Don Votto]

Here you go...

IF Votto has exact same 2013 numbers every year until 2019, then retires.
***EDITED VERSION***
HE WOULD NOT BE A HALL OF FAMER-- WHEN LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS

If he equaled the 2013 for every year from 2014-2019--
Votto have the following stats, and WOULD NOT MAKE Cooperstown

BA .309 (This would put him 17th all-time amongst first basemen)
117th Overall All-Time (Behind Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Larry Walker, Todd Helton, Vlad Guerrero, Ichiro,)

HR 301 This would put him 35th all-time amongst first basemen)
135 OVERALL all-time (Behind Scott Rolen, Jeromy Burnitz, Ryan Howard, Miguel Tejada, Reggie Sanders, David Justice, Steve Finley, Torii Hunter, Ron Gant,Jermaine Dye, Moises Alou, Darryl Strawberry, Mark Teixeira, Ellis Burks, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Adrian Beltre, Graig Nettles, Jim Edmonds, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, David Ortiz, Adam Dunn)


RBI 969 This would put him 65th all-time amongst first basemen
306th OVERALL all-time ( Behind Pat Burrell, Jeromy Burnitz, Ryan Klesko, Reggie Sanders, Ron Gant, Darrell Strawberry, Tim Salmon, David Justice, Bret Boone, Michael Young, Brian Giles, Don mattingly, Wally Joyner, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez--to name a few)

OBP .427 11th All-time 3rd All-time Amongst first basemen
Puts him behind only true Hall of Famers, with the exception of Bill Joyce

SLG .502 32 all-time amongst first basemen
(Puts him 92nd OVERALL all-time behind Brian Giles, Magglio Ordonez, Darrell Strawberry, Richie Sexton, Fred McGriff, Ellis Burks, Jason Giambi, Kevin Mitchell, Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Helton, Vladmir Guerrero.)

OPS .929 (13th all-time amongst first basemen)
(Puts him OVERALL 30th all-time behind Berkman, V. Guerrero, Edgar Martinez, Albert Belle, Helton, Bagwell)

EDITED** Too many great/good/all-star players with similar or better numbers than Votto (Whether they are current or within the past 30 years.)

I really do not think having an elite OBP alone will get Votto into Cooperstown

He needs more production (yes RBI and HR/EXTRA BASES) to have a shot.

Now, if Votto wins batting titles, Rbi, hr...
Reds win post season/world series
Maybe (MORE mvps/ AND gold gloves... etc.

BUT--if he posts 2013 stats, while nice, will not get him MVP, HR TITLES, RBI TITLES,GOLD GLOVES (IT may get him batting average titles.)

[Don Votto]

He already has won an MVP and GG.

I don't really understand how someone can look at those numbers + an MVP and not think HOF. It is just bizarre to me.

There are many former and current players with 1 MVP,GG, and similar or better overall numbers than those numbers I posted for Votto, that will not even whiff the Hall of Fame.

Former MVP's that came up in the Votto comparisons-- (though I think you can make the argument for many of them, are not in the Hall of fame)
Larry Walker,
Jeff Bagwell,
Dale Murphy,
Steve Garvey
Miguel Tejada,
Jason Giambi,
Juan Gonzalez,
Mo Vaughn,
Don Baylor,
Boog Powell

[Tracy Jones]

If Votto has 6 straight years of 2013 he is absolutely a certainty for the HoF. No question about it. You are forgetting power numbers are down across the league. Only 3 batters in the NL had 30 or more home runs last season.

Votto had the 7th most in the NL.
Votto had 10th highest Slugging % in the NL.


On top of that Votto had:

Highest BB% in NL (3% higher than 2nd best)
Highest OBP in the NL

10th in the NL in slugging? Sorry. Not good enough. Not even close.

Not for what the Reds are paying him and need him to be.

[Larry Schuler]

What if Votto sneaks into center field and launches fire works after each of his at bats? Would that give HOF voters the sparkle and pop they need to vote him in?

[Don Votto]

What if Votto sneaks into center field and launches fire works after each of his at bats? Would that give HOF voters the sparkle and pop they need to vote him in?

Larry--
If you look can step back, and without bias, look at the numbers that I posted (which were projected IF Votto repeated his same stats from 2013 and added on to his current career totals), and then compare them to other first basemen [within the last 30 years] that have either been elected to Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, or more importantly have NOT been elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame... then, no.

It is in my estimation, that Votto, if he ended is career with a .300 average, a tick over 300 homeruns, and less than 1000 RBI-- he will not make the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. [He will obviously be in the Reds Hall of Fame--and the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame]

Now, if those fireworks were being lit off because Votto was hitting 35-40 home runs a year (Plus an additional 30-40 doubles) and driving in 90-100 runs consistently... while maintaining a .300 average, a .400 OBP, and .550-.600 SLG.... then yes, he will make it.

Also, if Votto played catcher, shortstop, second base, or possibly third base--you could make a better argument--but there would be too many great first basemen who have better numbers overall numbers (and not just OBP) that would be above Votto ( and for them, many of them are struggling to get enough votes to get into Cooperstown.)

He is a great player--and, could possibly make it to Cooperstown without buying a ticket.
But, not with years that mirror his 2013 season.

You can't just walk into the Hall of Fame.

[Falcon7]

That's was pretty darn funny, had no idea he had that in him! Thanks for posting.

Does anybody else see a little Ashton Kutcher resemblance?

[RedTeamGo!]

10th in the NL in slugging? Sorry. Not good enough. Not even close.

Not for what the Reds are paying him and need him to be.

What if I were to say Votto got on base more than anybody in the national league last year? Is that even close?

[Larkin Fan]

I don't know what's more funny. Larry's post or the response accusing him of being biased afterwards.

[Beatlessp]

very funny video...laughed out loud several times...the best was his reaction to his high school video. and just to throw this out there...if he gets around 550ABs this season (almost 40 LESS than last year), he's on pace right now for 37 HRs....yeah, yeah, its early, but I think the doubts about Joey's power were a little premature.

[Raisor]

yeah, yeah, its early, but I think the doubts about Joey's power were a little premature.

While I agree with you I'd be a hypocrite if I didn't shake my finger and say:

If you know it's early and you put "it's early" in your post then it's too early.

[Don Votto]

I don't know what's more funny. Larry's post or the response accusing him of being biased afterwards.

Larkin Fan--

Why was my comment about asking for him being unbiased funny? Is Larry not capable of just looking at the numbers I posted and having an unbiased thought toward Votto, or do you feel that I am being biased? I am not really sure which it is.

In case you did not read my previous posts, I will try to explain it to you.

The PREMISE was-- IF Votto repeated the his previous season for the next six years, and then retired--he would not have the career numbers to get into the Hall of Fame.

His career stats would include a .309 Batting Average -- little more than 300 home runs -- and less than 1000 Rbi's. These numbers are not even close to being Cooperstown Hall of Fame worthy, when in comparison to other first basemen that have played within the past 30-40 years.

If you would take the time to read through my posts--I even included the other players that posted better career numbers in these stats (as of April, 2014), as well I also took into account his all-time place among first basemen in those categories, as well as OBP, SLG, and OPS.

Those numbers, while great--would not get him into the Hall of Fame.

I want Votto to do well. I really do. I think he has the potential to be one of the greatest Reds of All-Time--perhaps just under Robinson and Rose.

But that being said--Like Eric Davis, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Will Clark, he has had six good to great years in this league--let's see him be good to great for another eight to ten before we put him in Cooperstown.

[Don Votto]

One more thing--
Todd Helton.

After Todd Helton's Age:29 Season, these were his career numbers vs Joey Votto.
I ask you this--is Todd Helton HOF Bound?

NAME	GAMES	WALKS	HITS	HR	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
HELTON	946	540	1182	219	717	740	.347	.438	.633	1.071
VOTTO	890	572	1011	160	538	536	.314	.419	.541	.960

After year 30--Helton's seasonal averages were:

NAME	G	BB	H	HR	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Avg Year from Age 30-39)	141	89	149	17	76	74	.299	.404	.479	.882

Votto has some work to do, even to catch Todd Helton.