Turn Off Ads?
Page 17 of 26 FirstFirst ... 7131415161718192021 ... LastLast
Results 241 to 255 of 389

Thread: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

  1. #241
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Terre Haute, In
    Posts
    1,466

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Best of the bunch...no...very very solid pitcher....yeah, I could get on board with that!

  2. Likes:

    KittyDuran (04-21-2014)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #242
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,988

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    It's interesting how much Arroyo's BABIP skill got once the Reds improved their defense. What's was the Reds' team BABIP allowed (1-DER) during Arroyo's time on the team? That's a better baseline for assessing his particular skill at limiting BABIP than league average.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that Arroyo demonstrated some ability to limit BABIP throughout his career, perhaps on the order of 10 points.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2014 at 09:36 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. Likes:

    TRF (04-21-2014)

  6. #243
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,852

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    "Some people totally get this pitcher wrong by looking at how many runs he actually gave up."
    "That wasn't a hit. That was some bad fielding."~~Ichiro upon being congratulated on getting a hit in his first spring training at-bat with the Mariners
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #244
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,374

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Except that didn't happen. The Reds were a bad defensive team in 2006-8, worst DER in the NL in 2008. In fact, those years were the bottom of the trough when it came to the Reds' defense. 2002-5 were actually better.
    2006, the focus changed. I didn't say they magically became a good defensive team. By the end 2008, Dunn and Griffey were gone, Bruce was in RF, and GG's were in place in the IF or about to be.

    I stand by what I stated. Arroyo as a Red in 2002-2005, especially during his 30's would have been stomped like a narc at a biker rally.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #245
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Melbourne, FL
    Posts
    4,848

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that Arroyo demonstrated some ability to limit BABIP throughout his career, perhaps on the order of 10 points.
    Yep. It's generally accepted post-McCracken that not all pitchers have the exact same baseline BABIP. But broken into seasonal slices, all pitchers do have a great deal of volatility in year-to-year BABIP. If someone's baseline BABIP is .290 instead of .300, his single-season BABIP can still vary 30-40 points in either direction based on pure randomness. It takes a lot of innings for the signal to emerge from the noise.

    So here's the thing I think has been missed at times in the thread -- when people say Pitcher A can control his BABIP better than Pitcher B, they do not mean Pitcher A's BABIP is less volatile, they just mean his baseline is better. If a pitcher goes for eight seasons and he has three where his BABIP is more than ten points better than his team, and five where it's +- 10 points either way, that would be a reasonable statistical outcome if he starts with a modestly better baseline BABIP and then we introduce natural seasonal variance.
    Not all who wander are lost

  9. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (04-22-2014)

  10. #246
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,852

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Yep. It's generally accepted post-McCracken that not all pitchers have the exact same baseline BABIP. But broken into seasonal slices, all pitchers do have a great deal of volatility in year-to-year BABIP. If someone's baseline BABIP is .290 instead of .300, his single-season BABIP can still vary 30-40 points in either direction based on pure randomness. It takes a lot of innings for the signal to emerge from the noise.

    So here's the thing I think has been missed at times in the thread -- when people say Pitcher A can control his BABIP better than Pitcher B, they do not mean Pitcher A's BABIP is less volatile, they just mean his baseline is better. If a pitcher goes for eight seasons and he has three where his BABIP is more than ten points better than his team, and five where it's +- 10 points either way, that would be a reasonable statistical outcome if he starts with a modestly better baseline BABIP and then we introduce natural seasonal variance.
    Actually, at issue from my perspective in this thread is why a baseline is what it might be.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #247
    Member DannyB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Fort Lauderdale
    Posts
    802

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?


  12. #248
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,327

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    I find it odd that he automatically attributes his higher than average strand rate to luck. Why is it NEVER a skill the pitcher has? How about the fact that he has one of the best defenses playing behind him to help strand those runners. How about the possibility that he's got excellent control, movement and speed changes that helps make hitters make weaker contact? I find it irritating that when they can't explain something that goes against the norm...it's luck. Dig deeper.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  13. Likes:

    REDREAD (04-23-2014)

  14. #249
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,953

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I find it odd that he automatically attributes his higher than average strand rate to luck. Why is it NEVER a skill the pitcher has? How about the fact that he has one of the best defenses playing behind him to help strand those runners. How about the possibility that he's got excellent control, movement and speed changes that helps make hitters make weaker contact? I find it irritating that when they can't explain something that goes against the norm...it's luck. Dig deeper.
    I'm not closed minded, but the first thing I wonder is, "if he (whoever) is so good at stranding runners, why does he let them on base to begin with?"

  15. #250
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,852

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I find it odd that he automatically attributes his higher than average strand rate to luck. Why is it NEVER a skill the pitcher has? How about the fact that he has one of the best defenses playing behind him to help strand those runners. How about the possibility that he's got excellent control, movement and speed changes that helps make hitters make weaker contact? I find it irritating that when they can't explain something that goes against the norm...it's luck. Dig deeper.
    First, Leake shouldn't get credit for a defense that elevates his strand rate. That said, pitchers who suppress contact have been shown to be able to sustain a higher than expected strand rate. Pitch to contact pitchers, generally can't.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #251
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,327

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'm not closed minded, but the first thing I wonder is, "if he (whoever) is so good at stranding runners, why does he let them on base to begin with?"
    Good point. I'm not saying the article is WRONG...just that they automatically attribute it to luck.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  17. #252
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,327

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    First, Leake shouldn't get credit for a defense that elevates his strand rate. That said, pitchers who suppress contact have been shown to be able to sustain a higher than expected strand rate. Pitch to contact pitchers, generally can't.
    IMO, a pitcher who tries to leverage his advantage should get credit for doing so. Leake's advantage is the leather behind him. That goes for all the Reds staff.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  18. Likes:

    REDREAD (04-23-2014)

  19. #253
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,852

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    IMO, a pitcher who tries to leverage his advantage should get credit for doing so. Leake's advantage is the leather behind him. That goes for all the Reds staff.
    Not being able to miss bats isn't the same thing as leveraging your defense.... This isn't snark, it's a very important distinction to make when so many seem so tempted to attribute swings in luck metrics to a pitcher's conscious attempt to induce contact in such a way as to aid the defense.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  20. #254
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,327

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not being able to miss bats isn't the same thing as leveraging your defense.... This isn't snark, it's a very important distinction to make when so many seem so tempted to attribute swings in luck metrics to a pitcher's conscious attempt to induce contact in such a way as to aid the defense.
    I understand that you're not trying to be "snarkish", but I have a VERY hard time dismissing 4+ years of success to luck.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  21. #255
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,963

    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    In a vacuum Leake is Roger Salkeld. They don't play in vacuums. Therefore, best to worry about Leake when he goes to a team with dog-ugly defense. Oh wait, I won't have to: he won't be a Red then.

  22. Likes:

    757690 (04-21-2014)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25