Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

[joshua]

If Leake threw 96 mph, he'd be a much better and much more valuable pitcher.

While putting up the exact same statistics?

[jojo]

While putting up the exact same statistics?

Why would you argue that he would put up the exact same statistics? But no, if he threw 96mph but put up the exact same statitistics, he'd be correctly characterized as a back end arm.

[villain612]

If Mat Latos was not injured currently, there's no way that so many people would be advocating keeping Leake over Latos. That's all I'm saying.

I know staying healthy is an attribute in and of itself, but Latos has made 30+ starts 4 years in a row.

The injury bug happens. It will hit Leake at some point too.

[Kingspoint]

Until proven otherwise, Cueto is #1, Latos is 1A, Bailey is 3, while Leake is 4 with Cingrani pushing him for that honor. On another staff, Leake would be higher, but not on this one right now.

[klw]

I would rank Leake ahead of Bailey at this point. Bailey may have better stuff and "potential" but Leake is currently the more effective pitcher. This year's sample size is small and last year's performance was close. This is Bailey's 11th season as a professional (10th full) and he is 18 months older than Leake. Bailey may have more upside to improve towards and have his results match his peripheral stats but as things stand now I would have Leake ahead of him.

My list:
1. Cueto
2. Cingrani
3. Leake
4. Bailey
5. Simon
NA- Latos

Simon is 5th simply based upon small sample size.

[Wonderful Monds]

Leake is a strong 3 at worst. Calling him a back end arm is lolworthy.

[Wonderful Monds]

I also just want to thank Mike for allowing the old arguments about Bronson Arroyo to live on under his name.

[757690]

Yes, yes. That is exactly the arguement that was made!

But you're welcome to construct another statistical one for the sake of discussion.

If WAR was base in xFIP, which actually does a better job of isolating what pitchers historically have the most control over when they pitch, Leake would have much closer WAR to Latos and Bailey.

Career xFIP:

Latos: 3.59
Bailey: 3.89
Leake: 3.87

[Kingspoint]

Anyone noticing the difference between the way Cueto is pitching today and Leake pitched yesterday?

This explains the difference between the two.

[jojo]

Leake is a strong 3 at worst. Calling him a back end arm is lolworthy.

Actually, the mounds of things that have to be ignored to make that argument is grounds for rounds of laugh-like sounds.

[jojo]

If WAR was base in xFIP, which actually does a better job of isolating what pitchers historically have the most control over when they pitch, Leake would have much closer WAR to Latos and Bailey.

Career xFIP:

Latos: 3.59
Bailey: 3.89
Leake: 3.87

But as you know (because this has been explained to you patiently and exhaustively several times in multiple threads), using xFIP for Leake innapropriately skews his performance leading to conclusions such as Leake=Homer, Leake=Cueto, Leake is tremendously valuable etc.

[Wonderful Monds]

Actually, the mounds of things that have to be ignored to make that argument is grounds for rounds of laugh-like sounds.

Not really. He performs. That's pretty much the end of the story.

[jojo]

Not really. He performs. That's pretty much the end of the story.

His does perform. That is without question. It's just that his performance hasn't been that of someone who is a strong 3 at worst. That kinda is the actual story though I get some find it less exciting to contemplate.

[reds44]

I bet if we posted this thread 3 weeks ago nobody would have Cueto atop their lists.

Fans are fun lol

[757690]

But as you know using xFIP for Leake innapropriately skews his performance because this and why it is so have been explained to you several times in multiple threads.

No. I don't know, it, because it is not true, no matter how many times you claim it is.

You claim that Leake historically has given up more home runs per flyball than the average pitcher, so we should conclude that he will always give up lots of home runs. That flys in the face of decades of data that shows that pitchers tend to give up the same number of home runs per flyballs over their careers.

But let's assume that Leake is an outlier, just for the sake if argument. You still are incorrect, since last year, Leake's home run per fly ball rate normalized to very close to league average, and that resulted in a much lower home run rate for Leake last year, and a much better year for Leake overall. So it is false that Leake has sustained an historically high home run to flyball rate over his career. He improved his greatly last year, just as had been predicted.

You really don't have the fast behind you on this.