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Thread: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

  1. #211
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Then I'd suggest that your next entry show the results of your study, set up however you'd like.
    Okay, it took me awhile, and lot of stares from my boss, but here are the numbers. I actually got different numbers than JoJo, so I double checked them, and I know that mine are correct. I'm not sure how JoJo figured his out, but he did it incorrectly. Here they are:

    Code:
    	  BA	Staff	  mlb
    2006	0.270	0.312	0.298
    2007	0.309	0.314	0.299
    2008	0.314	0.317	0.296
    2009	0.265	0.290	0.295
    2010	0.239	0.301	0.293
    2011	0.278	0.287	0.291
    2012	0.286	0.292	0.293
    2013	0.267	0.279	0.294
    			
    	  BA	Staff	  mlb
    06-'08	0.298	0.315	0.298
    09-'13	0.267	0.290	0.293
    Arroyo had a lower BABIP than his teammates every year, and on average by a decent amount overall. The difference was greater when the Reds defense improved. These stats convince me that Arroyo possess the skill of producing a lower than average BABIP on a consistent bases over many years. They may not convince you, and that's fair. But I think that they will convince most fans.

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  4. #212
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Okay, it took me awhile, and lot of stares from my boss, but here are the numbers. I actually got different numbers than JoJo, so I double checked them, and I know that mine are correct. I'm not sure how JoJo figured his out, but he did it incorrectly. Here they are:

    Code:
    	  BA	Staff	  mlb
    2006	0.270	0.312	0.298
    2007	0.309	0.314	0.299
    2008	0.314	0.317	0.296
    2009	0.265	0.290	0.295
    2010	0.239	0.301	0.293
    2011	0.278	0.287	0.291
    2012	0.286	0.292	0.293
    2013	0.267	0.279	0.294
    			
    	  BA	Staff	  mlb
    06-'08	0.298	0.315	0.298
    09-'13	0.267	0.290	0.293
    Arroyo had a lower BABIP than his teammates every year, and on average by a decent amount overall. The difference was greater when the Reds defense improved. These stats convince me that Arroyo possess the skill of producing a lower than average BABIP on a consistent bases over many years. They may not convince you, and that's fair. But I think that they will convince most fans.
    Great work. Anyone with a lick of sense about statistics know it's best to control your sample and you did that perfectly. Bravo!

    For the record, I believe that his seasons with Boston/Pitt would yield the same results. I don't see how anyone can pass it off as luck at this point.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #213
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Okay, it took me awhile, and lot of stares from my boss, but here are the numbers. I actually got different numbers than JoJo, so I double checked them, and I know that mine are correct. I'm not sure how JoJo figured his out, but he did it incorrectly. Here they are:

    Code:
    	 BA	Staff	  mlb
    2006	0.270	0.312	0.298
    2007	0.309	0.314	0.299
    2008	0.314	0.317	0.296
    2009	0.265	0.290	0.295
    2010	0.239	0.301	0.293
    2011	0.278	0.287	0.291
    2012	0.286	0.292	0.293
    2013	0.267	0.279	0.294
    			
              BA    Staff     mlb
    06-'08	0.298	0.315	0.298
    09-'13	0.267	0.290	0.293
    Arroyo had a lower BABIP than his teammates every year, and on average by a decent amount overall. The difference was greater when the Reds defense improved. These stats convince me that Arroyo possess the skill of producing a lower than average BABIP on a consistent bases over many years. They may not convince you, and that's fair. But I think that they will convince most fans.
    The original table I posted was constructed by grabbing BABIP for both Arroyo and mlb from the fangraphs website. Then I originally calculated BABIP for "Staff" by summing the fangraphs data for the staff after removing Arroyo's data then using the pitcher's formula for BABIP {(H-HR)/(TBF-HR-K-BB)}. Apparently this gives a slightly different value than the Fangraphs website BABIP (ex. fangraphs reports Arroyo's 2006 BABIP as .270 and the formula above calculates it at .268). So to avoid this slight discrepancy, below is a table reporting the BABIPs for each category as uniformly calculated by the pitcher's formula for BABIP after grabbing relevant data from fangraphs (so the pitchers BABIP formula was applied to Arroyo's counting stats, counting stats for all mlb pitchers, and to the counting stats for all Reds pitchers after subtracting Arroyo's stats from the group). Though there are slight changes (with an emphasis on slight), as can be seen, the conclusions in my original post remain unchanged:

    Code:
    	  BA	Staff	 mlb
    2006	0.268	0.302	0.294
    2007	0.303	0.306	0.296
    2008	0.311	0.306	0.293
    2009	0.261	0.282	0.292
    2010	0.237	0.294	0.290
    2011	0.276	0.278	0.287
    2012	0.284	0.281	0.290
    2013	0.264	0.270	0.290
    			
    	  BA    Staff	 mlb
    06-'08	0.294	0.305	0.294
    09-'13	0.262	0.281	0.290
    Again, the conclusions remain unchanged-Arroyo's BABIP was nearly identical to his teammates 5 out of 8 years that he was a Red (actually his was greater than his teammates twice based upon strict values but I don't consider those differences meaningful). The change in defense behind them lowered both Arroyo's and his teammates' BABIP similarly and the actual difference between the magnitudes can readily be attributed to the fact that Arroyo's penchant for giving up alot of contact likely amplified the quality of the defense behind him. Basically Arroyo had a two year stretch (2009-2010) where his BABIP deviated significantly from his teammates and that was sandwiched between five seasons of nearly identical BABIPs between Arroyo and his teammates. Again, that's a classic regression to the mean pattern. As can be seen by breaking up his tenure as a Red using the 2008 off season, Arroyo's BABIP was different from league average really only when he was in front of the reds stellar defense.

    Those wanting to conclude that Arroyo has the ability to suppress BABIP, have to explain why he failed to have a BABIP that was meaningfully different than his teammates for the majority of his career as a Red. In other words, why would it be reasonable to conclude that being wrong about 65% of the time equates to being right? To argue that Arroyo can meaningfully suppress BABIP one has to essentially argue that Arroyo was able to greatly manifest his ability to extreme levels during three seasons but decided not to manifest it for the other five while the argument is implying his BABIP was not subject to randomness. Is that a more compelling position than viewing his few extremes as a pretty common thing that occurs with pitcher BABIP especially given the context that, 1) BABIP can vary greatly for pitchers from season to season, 2) he did not display a consistent ability to suppress BABIP before joining the Reds, 2) his BABIP was not different from mlb ave BABIP given long stretches of performance until his defense improved dramatically, 4) he is a high contact pitcher, and there are obvious effects of the quality of defense behind him on his BABIP, 5) as a Red he actually demonstrated poorer results on defense-independent contact as suggested by his higher than expected HR/FB%.

    So back to the original, original point. Giving the pitcher full credit for what happened while he was on the mound, like using ERA to assess a pitcher's production, is inappropriate. Some have argued that assessing pitchers via their peripherals overvalues pitchers who strikeout a lot, walk few, and don't give up gopher balls. Really, what those types of pitchers do is insulate themselves from their defense to a greater degree than pitch to contact guys (anyone want to argue with the notion that such a skillset isn't more valuable?). The problem with ERA is that it can greatly skew the evaluation of high contact pitchers (both up or down; and really ERA can do this to all pitchers) by ignoring the influence of the quality of defense behind a pitcher (among a list of other things ignored as well). Unfortunately the argument that "high contact/pitch to contact guys like Arroyo or Leake can suppress BABIP therefore their ERA is more valid than a multifaceted approach using peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck.randomness metrics/environment/quality of defense", simply doesn't hold water as the analysis above definitively demonstrates. Arroyo really doesn't suppress BABIP so much. And to the minimal degree that he might, it doesn't explain the difference between his ERA and FIP as a Red in light of what we know about the quality of defense behind him.

    Arroyo's lower than expected BABIP is largely a mirage. Suggesting he repeatedly suppresses BABIP to a degree that can significantly influence his ERA attributes a skill to Arroyo that largely really reflects an attribute of his defense or the interaction of the contact he allows with the quality of the defense. It also ignores that for the majority of seasons where differences existed between his ER and FIP, there were no differences between his BABIP and the BABIP of his teammates. If the Reds defense would've remained similar to the quality of the 2006-2008 seasons, would we even be having this discussion?

    Frankly, the relevant question I think is why has Arroyo's ERA been lower than his FIP as a Red in the absence of a consistently suppressed BABIP?

    One thing that jumps out of the data is the unusually high strand rate (LOB%) he's posted as a Red which is interesting especially given the unexpectedly poor strand rate he had for his career prior to 2006 (LOB%=66.1% versus mlb average LOB%= 71.2% for the period between 2000-2005) and the fact that pitchers that yield a high rate of contact generally can't control their LOB% (high K pitchers have been shown to generally post slightly higher than expected strand rates). Here's a summary of Arroyo vs mlb ave again:

    Arroyo's Pitcher trifecta (peripherals intrinsic to a repeatable skills set) and luck/randomness metrics (things that tend to regress) for 2006-2013:

    Code:
    			            Make 'em miss	 Command	BatBall         Luck		
    	ERA	FIP	K/9	K%    Contact%  SwStr%	BB/9	BB%	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB
    Arroyo	4.05	4.6	5.92	15.7	83.8	7.1	2.31	6.1	40.9	0.278	75.1	12.0
    MLBave	4.32	3.95	6.68	17.3	81.2	8.2	3.01	7.8	44.1	0.300	71.4	10.6
    Concerning Arroyo, this is the peg (LOB%) that I think those arguing for an intrinsic, unusual skill should explore as it's strange and worthy of discussion.

    If you're interested in LOB% but haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it previously, here are a couple of great, short videos from fangraphs that explain the concept an a fun way:





    EDIT: Actually the Reds have had the highest strand rate in mlb since 2006 @ 74% and between 2009-2013, the Reds and Arroyo have identical strand rates. This probably is yet another thing pointing to the power of the Reds defense concerning Arroyo's ERA.
    Last edited by jojo; 04-18-2014 at 08:58 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #214
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The original table I posted was constructed by grabbing BABIP for both Arroyo and mlb from the fangraphs website. Then I originally calculated BABIP for "Staff" by summing the fangraphs data for the staff after removing Arroyo's data then using the pitcher's formula for BABIP {(H-HR)/(TBF-HR-K-BB)}. Apparently this gives a slightly different value than the Fangraphs website BABIP (ex. fangraphs reports Arroyo's 2006 BABIP as .270 and the formula above calculates it at .268). So to avoid this slight discrepancy, below is a table reporting the BABIPs for each category as uniformly calculated by the pitcher's formula for BABIP after grabbing relevant data from fangraphs (so the pitchers BABIP formula was applied to Arroyo's counting stats, counting stats for all mlb pitchers, and to the counting stats for all Reds pitchers after subtracting Arroyo's stats from the group). Though there are slight changes (with an emphasis on slight), as can be seen, the conclusions in my original post remain unchanged:

    Code:
    	  BA	Staff	 mlb
    2006	0.268	0.302	0.294
    2007	0.303	0.306	0.296
    2008	0.311	0.306	0.293
    2009	0.261	0.282	0.292
    2010	0.237	0.294	0.290
    2011	0.276	0.278	0.287
    2012	0.284	0.281	0.290
    2013	0.264	0.270	0.290
    			
    	  BA    Staff	 mlb
    06-'08	0.294	0.305	0.294
    09-'13	0.262	0.281	0.290
    Again, the conclusions remain unchanged-Arroyo's BABIP was nearly identical to his teammates 5 out of 8 years that he was a Red (actually his was greater than his teammates twice based upon strict values but I don't consider those differences meaningful). The change in defense behind them lowered both Arroyo's and his teammates' BABIP similarly and the actual difference between the magnitudes can readily be attributed to the fact that Arroyo's penchant for giving up alot of contact likely amplified the quality of the defense behind him. Basically Arroyo had a two year stretch (2009-2010) where his BABIP deviated significantly from his teammates and that was sandwiched between five seasons of nearly identical BABIPs between Arroyo and his teammates. Again, that's a classic regression to the mean pattern. As can be seen by breaking up his tenure as a Red using the 2008 off season, Arroyo's BABIP was different from league average really only when he was in front of the reds stellar defense.

    Those wanting to conclude that Arroyo has the ability to suppress BABIP, have to explain why he failed to have a BABIP that was meaningfully different than his teammates for the majority of his career as a Red. In other words, why would it be reasonable to conclude that being wrong about 65% of the time equates to being right? To argue that Arroyo can meaningfully suppress BABIP one has to essentially argue that Arroyo was able to greatly manifest his ability to extreme levels during three seasons but decided not to manifest it for the other five while the argument is implying his BABIP was not subject to randomness. Is that a more compelling position than viewing his few extremes as a pretty common thing that occurs with pitcher BABIP especially given the context that, 1) BABIP can vary greatly for pitchers from season to season, 2) he did not display a consistent ability to suppress BABIP before joining the Reds, 2) his BABIP was not different from mlb ave BABIP given long stretches of performance until his defense improved dramatically, 4) he is a high contact pitcher, and there are obvious effects of the quality of defense behind him on his BABIP, 5) as a Red he actually demonstrated poorer results on defense-independent contact as suggested by his higher than expected HR/FB%.

    So back to the original, original point. Giving the pitcher full credit for what happened while he was on the mound, like using ERA to assess a pitcher's production does, is inappropriate. Some have argued that assessing pitchers via their peripherals overvalues pitchers who strikeout a lot, walk few, and don't give up gopher balls. Really, what those types of pitchers do is insulate themselves from their defense to a greater degree than pitch to contact guys (anyone want to argue with the notion that such a skillset isn't more valuable?). The problem with ERA is that it can greatly skew the evaluation of high contact pitchers (both up or down; and really ERA can do this to all pitchers) by ignoring the influence of the quality of defense behind a pitcher (among a list of other things ignored as well). Unfortunately the argument that "high contact/pitch to contact guys like Arroyo or Leake can suppress BABIP therefore their ERA is more valid than a multifaceted approach using peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck.randomness metrics/environment/quality of defense", simply doesn't hold water as the analysis above definitively demonstrates. Arroyo really doesn't suppress BABIP so much. And to the minimal degree that he might, it doesn't explain the difference between his ERA and FIP as a Red in light of what we know about the quality of defense behind him.

    Arroyo's lower than expected BABIP is largely a mirage. Suggesting he repeatedly suppresses BABIP to a degree that can significantly influence his ERA attributes a skill to Arroyo that largely really reflects an attribute of his defense or the interaction of the contact he allows with the quality of the defense. It also ignores that for the majority of seasons where diffrences existed between his ER and FIP, there were no differences between his BABIP and the BABIP of his teammates. If the Reds defense would've remained similar to the quality of the 2006-2008 seasons, would we even be having this discussion?

    Frankly, the relevant question I think is why has Arroyo's ERA been lower than his FIP as a Red in the absence of a consistently suppressed BABIP?

    One thing that jumps out of the data is the unusually high strand rate (LOB%) he's posted as a Red which is interesting especially given the unexpectedly poor strand rate he had for his career prior to 2006 (LOB%=66.1% versus mlb average LOB%= 71.2% for the period between 2000-2005) and the fact that pitchers that yield a high rte of contact generally can't control their LOB% (high K pitchers have been shown to generally post slightly higher than expected strand rates). Here's a summary of Arroyo vs mlb ave again:

    Arroyo's Pitcher trifecta (peripherals intrinsic to a repeatable skills set) and luck/randomness metrics (things that tend to regress) for 2006-2013:

    Code:
    			            Make 'em miss	 Command	BatBall         Luck		
    	ERA	FIP	K/9	K%    Contact%  SwStr%	BB/9	BB%	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB
    Arroyo	4.05	4.6	5.92	15.7	83.8	7.1	2.31	6.1	40.9	0.278	75.1	12.0
    MLBave	4.32	3.95	6.68	17.3	81.2	8.2	3.01	7.8	44.1	0.300	71.4	10.6
    Your numbers for the team without Arroyo are still off. I am not sure why. But in a bit I will show my work in detail to show that my numbers are accurate.

  7. #215
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Here is my work in detail. These were all taken off of Baseball Reference. Maybe I made an error, but it doesn't look like it to me. If I did, I welcome all feedback.


    Code:
    Year	   Hits - HR	AB-HR-K+SF BABIPw/O BA
    	 	 	
    2006 Team	1363	4435	 
    2006 BA	         191	 699	
    Team W/O BA	1172	3746	0.312867058
    
    2007 Team	1407	4472	
    2007 BA	         204	 651	
    Team W/O BA	1203	3821	0.314839047
    
    2008 Team	1341	4223	
    2008 BA	         190	 592	
    Team W/O BA	1151	3631	0.316992564
    
    2009 Team	1232	4293	
    2009 BA	         183	 682	
    Team W/O BA	1049	3611	0.290501246
    
    2010 Team	1246	4269	
    2010 BA	         159	 659	
    Team W/O BA	1087	3610	0.301108033
    
    2011 Team	1229	4301	
    2011 BA	         181	 644	
    Team W/O BA	1048	3657	0.286573694
    
    2012 Team	1204	4133	
    2012 BA	         183	 633	
    Team W/O BA	1021	3500	0.291714286
    
    2013 Team	1123	4048	
    2013 BA	         167	 622	
    Team W/O BA	 956	3426	0.279042615
    
    2006-2013	8687	29002	0.299531067
    2006-2008	3526	11198	0.314877657
    2009-2013	5161	17804	0.289878679

  8. #216
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Your numbers for the team without Arroyo are still off. I am not sure why. But in a bit I will show my work in detail to show that my numbers are accurate.
    They are fangraphs data for all Reds pitchers in a given year minus Arroyo's data cells as then applied to the formula I indicated {(H-HR)/(TBF-HR-BB-K)}. I've recalculated them again and attached the spreadsheet in case you're interested (it's a text file because for some reason the uploader tool wouldn't allow the excel file). There was only one small typo (2012 BABIP should be .285 instead of .281).

    But truthfully, it doesn't matter as your table and my table are not that different and the differences don't meaningfully change the interpretation.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To argue that Arroyo can meaningfully suppress BABIP one has to essentially argue that Arroyo was able to greatly manifest his ability to extreme levels during three seasons but decided not to manifest it for the other five while the argument is implying his BABIP was not subject to randomness.
    If Tony Gwynn had much effect on where the baseball goes, why didn't he .394 every year?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  10. #218
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Here is my work in detail. These were all taken off of Baseball Reference. Maybe I made an error, but it doesn't look like it to me. If I did, I welcome all feedback.


    Code:
    Year	   Hits - HR	AB-HR-K+SF BABIPw/O BA
    	 	 	
    2006 Team	1363	4435	 
    2006 BA	         191	 699	
    Team W/O BA	1172	3746	0.312867058
    
    2007 Team	1407	4472	
    2007 BA	         204	 651	
    Team W/O BA	1203	3821	0.314839047
    
    2008 Team	1341	4223	
    2008 BA	         190	 592	
    Team W/O BA	1151	3631	0.316992564
    
    2009 Team	1232	4293	
    2009 BA	         183	 682	
    Team W/O BA	1049	3611	0.290501246
    
    2010 Team	1246	4269	
    2010 BA	         159	 659	
    Team W/O BA	1087	3610	0.301108033
    
    2011 Team	1229	4301	
    2011 BA	         181	 644	
    Team W/O BA	1048	3657	0.286573694
    
    2012 Team	1204	4133	
    2012 BA	         183	 633	
    Team W/O BA	1021	3500	0.291714286
    
    2013 Team	1123	4048	
    2013 BA	         167	 622	
    Team W/O BA	 956	3426	0.279042615
    
    2006-2013	8687	29002	0.299531067
    2006-2008	3526	11198	0.314877657
    2009-2013	5161	17804	0.289878679
    Youre going to hate me for this but you need to redraw your table. You used BR BABIP data for the staff but Fangraphs data for Arroyo and for mlb. You need to use a consistent formula across the three groups. BR's value tend to be higher so if you're using FG for Arroyo and BR data for Staff, it will make any difference between the two appear larger. I know, it's mind numbing.

    EDIT: Actually since you've shown a willingness to roll up your sleeves, I went ahead and fixed your table. Here it is assuming no typos:

    Code:
    	BA	Staff	mlb
    2006	0.273	0.312	0.301
    2007	0.313	0.314	0.303
    2008	0.321	0.317	0.300
    2009	0.268	0.290	0.299
    2010	0.241	0.301	0.297
    2011	0.281	0.287	0.295
    2012	0.289	0.292	0.297
    2013	0.268	0.279	0.297
    ave	0.282	0.299	0.299
    SD	0.026	0.014	0.003
    			
    	BA	Staff	mlb
    06-'08	0.302	0.314	0.301
    09-'13	0.269	0.290	0.297
    Last edited by jojo; 04-18-2014 at 08:29 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #219
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    If Tony Gwynn had much effect on where the baseball goes, why didn't he .394 every year?
    Why are you discussing pitcher BABIP in terms of Tony Gwynn?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #220
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Youre going to hate me for this but you need to redraw your table. You used BR BABIP data for the staff but Fangraphs data for Arroyo and for mlb. You need to use a consistent formula across the three groups. BR's value tend to be higher so if you're using FG for Arroyo and BR data for Staff, it will make any difference between the two appear larger. I know, it's mind numbing.

    EDIT: Actually since you've shown a willingness to roll up your sleeves, I went ahead and fixed your table. Here it is assuming no typos:

    Code:
    	BA	Staff	mlb
    2006	0.273	0.312	0.301
    2007	0.313	0.314	0.303
    2008	0.321	0.317	0.300
    2009	0.268	0.290	0.299
    2010	0.241	0.301	0.297
    2011	0.281	0.287	0.295
    2012	0.289	0.292	0.297
    2013	0.268	0.279	0.297
    ave	0.282	0.299	0.299
    SD	0.026	0.014	0.003
    			
    	BA	Staff	mlb
    06-'08	0.302	0.314	0.301
    09-'13	0.269	0.290	0.297
    And that leaves us with a 95.43% correlation when removing the two outlier seasons rather than a 96.22% correlation. Lot of unnecessary work to be put through when it was already really clear that Arroyo wasn't enough of a consistent outlier to mandate a change in methodology.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  13. #221
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Why would you remove the two "outlier" seasons?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  14. #222
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Why are you discussing pitcher BABIP in terms of Tony Gwynn?
    If Tony Gwynn was good at hitting where they ain't, then why did he .310 in some seasons and .394 in his best season? If he had a replicable skill, why didn't he hit .394 every season? That's the logic you're putting out there.

    Large sample sizes are the bread and butter of sabre, but you're breaking Arroyo's demonstrable record over a metric ton of innings into bit-sized seasons so that you can say claim a 65% "failure" rate (even though he beat the team BABIP even in those seasons).

    I was against all of Arroyo's extensions because of his low k-rate. And, you know what, I was wrong. I'm refining my thinking. That's what makes it an interesting game.
    Last edited by Rojo; 04-19-2014 at 01:53 AM.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  15. #223
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Why would you remove the two "outlier" seasons?
    Whether you remove the outliers or not, most people will look at those stats and conclude that Arroyo spent his career producing a lower than average BABIP, even when you factor in the defense behind him.

    Basically, Arroyo stumped the saber guys who predicted that he would eventually fail, but he instead continued to provide solid, predictable production for close to a decade. They will never be convinced that he was an above average pitcher, and spin narrative after narrative to prevent themselves from admitting that they got it wrong on Arroyo.

    I admire both JoJo and Steel for the the solid work with stats that they do and their perspective on the game and enjoy debating with both of them. But they got this one wrong, the stats show it. It's time to move on.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #224
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    In the spirit of the challenge mode in Sim City where you would inherit a city destroyed by a disaster or other tough, impossible situation and challenge yourself to see if you could make it work, I want to assign a tough, impossible argument and see if Jojo is talented enough to argue for it.

    Jojo, pick the stats that will prove best that Joey Votto is below average.
    Cincinnati Reds 2014 W-L Record: 76.6-85.4*

    Cincinnati Reds 2015 W-L Record: TBA

    *UPDATED: 2/11/2014

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  18. #225
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Why would you remove the two "outlier" seasons?
    Because we're looking to see if Arroyo is producing variances that are consistent and repeatable seasonally. The outlier seasons occur multiple years apart and represent variance spikes that unduly influence the entire sample. Keep in mind that I don't care why those outlier seasons occurred. You can even say that for those two years, Arroyo was able to control his BABIP if you like. What matters is that over time, Arroyo isn't able to consistently replicate the effect and that he's producing variance standard deviations that are right in line (lower actually) with what the Reds produce versus MLB. This hold true whether we use jojo's most recent data or the data Wonderful originally posted.

    If the argument were that Arroyo has occasionally produced random seasonal huge variances versus what we could expect, there would be no reason to exclude any outliers. But that wouldn't speak to Arroyo's ability to replicate those variances consistently over time. And that's one of the issues with the assumption that he is capable, by force of will or attribute, consistently control his BABIP- no one has been able to answer why the assumed "skill" shows up, takes a couple seasons off, shows up again, and then vanishes.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams


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