Then you'll explain specifically how Leake is controlling his strand rate?Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds
Then you'll explain specifically how Leake is controlling his strand rate?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
In cooperation with his defense. Do I know of a metric that shows this? No. But neither do you. There isn't one for a guy who may generate poor contact (not HARD contact), for a guy who messes with hitter's timing to assist him in getting weak contact.
I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying it's wrong to automatically chalk up what you can't put a number on to being LUCK.
Yes, the defense helps him. Guess what, it also helps Cueto, Latos, Bailey & Cingrani and the pen. Are you implying that Leake has nothing to do with his success? It's ALL the defense?
What I get the most tired of is the comparison of Leake to Arroyo, using the defense behind them as the means to their success.
The two pitchers are not AT ALL SIMILAR.
At roughly the same age, Arroyo was a 7K/9 guy. Leake won't touch that. Arroyo is deceptive in his delivery, and by changing arm angles has a better chance of controlling his batted ball tendencies, at least IMO. Leake is a guy with sink, but that's it. if he elevates, it's gone or just plain hammered.
Leake is a 5K/9 guy with no out pitch at age 26. Arroyo is a 5K/9 guy with no out pitch at age 37.
yeah... exactly the same.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Razor Shines (04-22-2014)
I'm stating that the Reds staff ERA has routinely outperformed it's FIP at the same time as it's routinely maintained a strand rate that is higher than expected and this can be correlated to the quality of the Reds defense.
I'm stating that a primary reason that Leake's ERA outperforms his FIP centers on his strand rate which can largely be attributed to his defense especailly since Leake does not miss bats and pitchers who have higher contact rates as a group have not shown an ability to maintain higher than expected strand rates. I'm not implying anything. I am plainly stating this....for like the third time now in this thread.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The last time Arroyo had a K/9 of 7 was in 2008 and it was the first time he had done that since 2004. You're rough justice comparison based upon age really isn't that meaningful considering the actual points being discussed in the thread.
During the period that Arroyo's ERA outperformed his FIP as a Red, he basically was Leake v1.0.
BTW, Arroyo just called and he wants his defense back....
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The actually explain how Leake is elevating his strand rate.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Crap. Do I have to apologize AGAIN!?! I agree with this. I think we were arguing different things.
I can't. I'm about as far away from a "stat guy" as they come. But when I see the success he's had as a Red, I see a solid pitcher. At some point, the results must have SOME meaning.
Cash gifts (in dollars please-no canadian money with pitcures of moose and weird looking birds).
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
This work?
If I guy plays in front of a great defense for his entire career, at what point does the added benefit that affords his stats go away?
The question is pretty straight forward. How much of Leake's ERA being lower than his FIP is a function of his defense, how much is luck and how much is Leake's unique skill? You can make a legitimate case that a bigger portion of that is Leake than Jojo is willing to credit him. And you can make a case that the sample size is such that luck is probably not a primary factor. But I see no reason why we should think that the contribution of defense would somehow shrink over time even if the defense stayed top notch, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
BRAD RADKE
Comps!
actually it is valid, as Arroyo had to rely on a skillset that Leake does not have. His first three seasons as a Red, Arroyo was a 7 K/9 guy. It doesn't matter what he is now, or what he became after that. He had the ability to get outs. As he aged and that ability lessened he used his deceptive delivery more to his advantage. He managed to pitch deep into games, though not as deep as he did when he was younger. Leake entered the league as Arroyo v2.0 but without the same tools Arroyo had to get those results. He lacked the stamina to pitch deep into games effectively, he has yet to rack up 200IP. IMO he benefits even more than Arroyo did from a luck standpoint than a skill one. Leake can get a groundball. Arroyo could get a groundball to short.
Now that may be just my opinion, but to me, that is the stark difference between them. That and I can see Leake's K/9 regressing even further... high fours/low fives.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
What proportion for each can you make a case for-Leake, defense, luck?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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