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Thread: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

  1. #61
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Sorry, missed that post somehow

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  3. #62
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Article on Leake and Frazier from today:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-parts-to-play
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  4. #63
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    I am very happy to see Leake start the season strong, but let's all settle down on him for the moment. It's been 3 starts. That doesn't necessarily indicate he's going to have a monster 2014 (although I obviously hope he does). As we say all the time with the offensive numbers, it's too small of a sample size. On the flip side, do you think Homer Bailey's first 3 starts are an indicator of how his entire 2014 is going to go? No one knows obviously, but I would bet against it. Let's let the season play out a little. We also need to wait to find out what the extend of Latos' injury situation is. I'm not so quick to say we should keep Leake over Latos based on a strong first 3 starts by Leake.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

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  6. #64
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yes, yes. That is exactly the arguement that was made!

    But you're welcome to construct another statistical one for the sake of discussion.
    That is the only comparison you are making in discounting Leake. You are using WAR instead of the importance of making 32 starts over the course of a season. WAR over 200+ IP's. WAR over a guy who is going to take the ball every 5th day so you aren't forced to use an AAAA starter, a prospect, or a converted bullpen arm.

    If I had to pick a pitcher to pitch in a do or die situation Leake would probably be my 5th choice on this team. If I had to slot a rotation for the playoffs, Leake would probably be my 5th choice. But baseball is played over the course of 162 games and Mike Leake is tremendously valuable in that aspect.

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Leake is the kind of pitcher who should get much better with experience.

    He may be the fourth or fifth starter now, but if things go well he could be a solid number 3 as he continues to mature as a pitcher.

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  10. #66
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    It may not be fair judge yet (especially with the smaller sample size on Cingrani), but Leake is comparable - and better in a lot of categories. Certainly these are not all the categories to gauge a pitcher, but they do bring about a good comparison. Again, it will be interesting to see how things play out. I think he still has tremendous upside. Does that mean I'm going overboard? No. Simply for discussion purposes. But to simply dismiss him - is not necessarily the way to go either.

    G W-L Win Pct. ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 K/9 BB/9 WAR
    Leake 117 44-30 .595 3.95 690.2 1.297 9.3 1.2 5.9 2.3 5.3
    Bailey 146 49-46 .516 4.32 867.1 1.331 9.1 1.1 7.5 2.9 5.6
    Latos 137 55-40 .579 3.35 849.2 1.17 7.8 0.8 8.3 2.7 12.8
    Cueto 163 65-50 .565 3.50 985.2 1.243 8.4 1.0 7.1 2.8 16.3
    Cingrani 29 8-5 .615 2.83 127 1.102 6.1 1.1 10.6 3.8 3.0

  11. #67
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    The other thing about Leake is that he is well suited for GABP, much more so than Arroyo who allowed so many fly balls and homers.

    The ultimate litmus test for Leake will be his ability to avoid home runs. Despite ground ball tendencies he has too frequently allowed long balls (though less often than an Arroyo). The truly great ground ball pitchers give up very few home runs.

    The jury is still out on Leake but I would think he is a very good candidate for a long term deal that doesn't break the bank.

    I see his upper limit as around a solid number 3, because hopefully the Reds will have two starters with great stuff to assume the Nos. 1 and 2 rotation slots.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-16-2014 at 11:45 AM.

  12. #68
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    That is the only comparison you are making in discounting Leake. You are using WAR instead of the importance of making 32 starts over the course of a season. WAR over 200+ IP's. WAR over a guy who is going to take the ball every 5th day so you aren't forced to use an AAAA starter, a prospect, or a converted bullpen arm.

    If I had to pick a pitcher to pitch in a do or die situation Leake would probably be my 5th choice on this team. If I had to slot a rotation for the playoffs, Leake would probably be my 5th choice. But baseball is played over the course of 162 games and Mike Leake is tremendously valuable in that aspect.

    WAR is a composite rate stat that is largely defense independent so it doesn't ignore IP (BTW, Leake has never pitched 200+ IP in a season so could it be possible that YOURE overvaluing him by apparently chosing IP over a composite rate stat like WAR?).

    But you really seem to be choosing murkily defined adjectives like "tremendously" over metrics. It's actually difficult to construct a statistical case for the argument that Leake is tremendously valuable.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #69
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Leake is the kind of pitcher who should get much better with experience.

    He may be the fourth or fifth starter now, but if things go well he could be a solid number 3 as he continues to mature as a pitcher.
    He's pitched roughly 1100 innings as a starter in college and the majors having entered the majors pretty much developed from a command/repitoire stand point. At what point is a light supposed to go on? I think it's a bit risky to assume he will experience an increase in true talent due to increased "pitchability". He's had that since draft day and that's why he skipped the minors to begin with.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    WAR is a composite rate stat that is largely defense independent so it doesn't ignore IP (BTW, Leake has never pitched 200+ IP in a season so could it be possible that YOURE overvaluing him by apparently chosing IP over a composite rate stat like WAR?).

    But you really seem to be choosing murkily defined adjectives like "tremendously" over metrics. It's actually difficult to construct a statistical case for the argument that Leake is tremendously valuable.
    According to Fangraphs last year Mike Leake was 1 WAR better than Johnny Cueto, 1. Mike Leake and 31 starts, 192 IP, 14-7 record, and an ERA+ of 113 was 1 win over the course of a season better than Cueto. The same Cueto that made 11 starts. I think WAR is a nice baseline stat but also a flawed stat.

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Leake is the kind of pitcher who should get much better with experience.

    He may be the fourth or fifth starter now, but if things go well he could be a solid number 3 as he continues to mature as a pitcher.
    Actually I think he's the type who's not likely to get "that" much better. Most pitchers who improve dramatically through their career have outstanding physical tools, and learn how to harness those tools. Leake's the type who's never been able to blow away guys with his pitches, but had to learn quite early "the art of pitching."

    So he's less likely to improve his physical tools than the proverbial "Million dollar arm/10 cent head" is to learn to use his mental tools.

    That all being said, I'm fine with him being able to continue at his current level for the next 4-5 years.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  16. #72
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    According to Fangraphs last year Mike Leake was 1 WAR better than Johnny Cueto, 1. Mike Leake and 31 starts, 192 IP, 14-7 record, and an ERA+ of 113 was 1 win over the course of a season better than Cueto. The same Cueto that made 11 starts. I think WAR is a nice baseline stat but also a flawed stat.
    You can't give Leake full credit for an ERA+ of 113. Given his contact rates etc, you mght not even be able to give him 3/4 credit. Plunk 2013 Leake down in front of the M's defense and there is no way he has an ERA+ of 113 despite having exactly the same peripherals. Seriously, if you're rejecting WAR as a flawed stat, you simply can't put forth a statistical argument based upon ERA.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #73
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    It's not like he was just brought up from Louisville. It's not like we have a 3 game sample size on Leake. I'll admit that his 2012 was not that good and hitters mashed him but if a 4.58 ERA, 1.352 WHIP season is the worst he's done after skipping the minors entirely, I'm not disappointed.

    2013: 31 G, 192.1 IP, 122 SO, 48 BB (2.80 SS/BB), 3.37 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, .285 BABIP, 190/.215/.254/.469. He had the 28th best WHIP in the NL, 24th most IP, 21st best ERA. That's not the numbers of a #5 starter, but a middle of the rotation guy.

    Right now his ERA is only 1.00 point lower than his career ERA, and his WHIP is 0.406 below his career WHIP. 0.406 may be a lot to add to a WHIP but it's currently 0.891, so not too shabby.

    He's only pitched 2 games in the minors (2011). Both games were in Louisville and only because he was optioned to bring Arrendondo back from the DL. Every other professional baseball game he's thrown in has been in the majors. He's added an average 14.1 innings every single year (Between 2010 and 2011 he added 29.1 IP, from 2011-2012 11.2 IP, from 2012-2013 13.1 IP). He's doing exactly what you'd want a pitcher to do, and he's done it without spending any significant time in the minors. He's never made a rehab start. The only time he spent on the DL was September of 2010, his first year in the league. He wasn't actually injured, but they just shut him down after throwing 138.1 innings.

    I've said it before, but if Leake threw 96 MPH, there's not a single person on here who would have a problem with him. I for one don't care about what the radar gun says. A career 3.95 ERA (only 0.45 worse than Cueto's career numbers), 1.297 WHIP (only 0.024 worse than Cueto career numbers), 2.55 SO/BB (0.02 better than Johnny Cueto's career numbers) for a guy who went straight from college to the big leagues and continues to show improvement and add on innings, speaks for itself
    Last edited by joshua; 04-16-2014 at 12:23 PM.

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  19. #74
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    It's not like he was just brought up from Louisville. It's not like we have a 3 game sample size on Leake. I'll admit that his 2012 was not that good and hitters mashed him but if a 4.58 ERA, 1.352 WHIP season is the worst he's done after skipping the minors entirely, I'm not disappointed.

    2013: 31 G, 192.1 IP, 122 SO, 48 BB (2.80 SS/BB), 3.37 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, .285 BABIP, 190/.215/.254/.469. He had the 28th best WHIP in the NL, 24th most IP, 21st best ERA. That's not the numbers of a #5 starter, but a middle of the rotation guy.

    Right now his ERA is only 1.00 point lower than his career ERA, and his WHIP is 0.406 below his career WHIP. 0.406 may be a lot to add to a WHIP but it's currently 0.891, so not too shabby.

    He's only pitched 2 games in the minors (2011). Both games were in Louisville and only because he was optioned to bring Arrendondo back from the DL. Every other professional baseball game he's thrown in has been in the majors. He's added an average 14.1 innings every single year (Between 2010 and 2011 he added 29.1 IP, from 2011-2012 11.2 IP, from 2012-2013 13.1 IP). He's doing exactly what you'd want a pitcher to do, and he's done it without spending any significant time in the minors. He's never made a rehab start. The only time he spent on the DL was September of 2010, his first year in the league. He wasn't actually injured, but they just shut him down after throwing 138.1 innings.

    I've said it before, but if Leake threw 96 MPH, there's not a single person on here who would have a problem with him. I for one don't care about what the radar gun says. A career 3.95 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 2.55 SO/BB for a guy who went straight from college to the big leagues and continues to show improvement and add on innings, speaks for itself
    If Leake threw 96 mph, he'd be a much better and much more valuable pitcher.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  21. #75
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If Leake threw 96 mph, he'd be a much better and much more valuable pitcher.
    Curtis Partch throws 96+ MPH. Is he a much better and more valuable pitcher than Leake? Speed is not everything. Though I agree that if Leake consistently threw 95 with everything else being equal he would likely be even better than he is now.
    Last edited by klw; 04-16-2014 at 12:26 PM.

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