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Thread: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

  1. #91
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    No. I don't know, it, because it is not true, no matter how many times you claim it is.
    It's only not true if you ignore Leake's career.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You claim that Leake historically has given up more home runs per flyball than the average pitcher, so we should conclude that he will always give up lots of home runs. That flys in the face of decades of data that shows that pitchers tend to give up the same number of home runs per flyballs over their careers.
    Actually the claim is that since Leake has consistently posted a HR/FB% that is significantly higher than average, normalizing his FIP for HR/FB% innapropriately skews his production in a way that makes him look more effective than he has been. History tells us that HR/FB% should normalize to roughly 10% but Leake is in his 5 year of service time and his has yet to regress. We shouldn't evaluate him by acting like it will. The dude is a pitch to contact ground ball pitcher. When he gives up a long FB, he's probably made a mistake. It would not be unreasonable for a contact guy to give up more homers than the mean of all starting pitchers.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But let's assume that Leake is an outlier, just for the sake if argument. You still are incorrect, since last year, Leake's home run per fly ball rate normalized to very close to league average, and that resulted in a much lower home run rate for Leake last year, and a much better year for Leake overall. So it is false that Leake has sustained an historically high home run to flyball rate over his career. He improved his greatly last year, just as had been predicted.
    Leake has a career HR/FB% of 13.8 that includes seasons of almost 17% and a low of 11.5%. So assuming for the sake of argument, Leake is an outlier, first, it would be innaprorpriate to normalize his FIP by HR/FB%. But second, your argument that his HR/FB% has meaningfully regressed frankly can't be supported. Last season it was simply lower than in previous years, really due to a great run of about 5 starts leading into the ASB. You can't use that as definitive proof he's regressed to the mean. You know why? Because just like everything else, his HR/FB% is subject to randomness. We're three starts into a narrative that Leake is equal to Latos, and guess what Leake's HR/FB% is? Yep, 16.7%.

    If Leake's HR/FB% ever does regress to something we'd consider to be normal, feel free to normalize his FIP for that season, by his HR/FB%. Until then, if you really need to normalize his FIP, you'd better find a different variable because your underlying assumption is not valid based upon what has actually happened on the field.

    This is basically stats 101 (baseball or theoretical).

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You really don't have the fast behind you on this.
    I may not have the fast behind me but I do have the facts. BTW, alot of people describe Leake as Arroyo 2.0 becaue they both pitch to contact and sponge off of the defense. Guess what Arroyo's HR/FB% was over his last 6 seasons as a Red? Yep, 12.8... Why again is it appropriate to normalize FIP for HR/FB% if a player shows a consistent tendency that invalidates the assumption that his HR/FB% will normalize to 10%?
    Last edited by jojo; 04-16-2014 at 02:34 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #92
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's only not true if you ignore Leake's career.



    Actually the claim is that since Leake has consistently posted a HR/FB% that is significantly higher than average, normalizing his FIP for HR/FB% innapropriately skews his production in a way that makes him look more effective than he has been. History tells us that HR/FB% should normalize to roughly 10% but Leake is in his 5 year of service time and his has yet to regress. We shouldn't evaluate him by acting like it will. The dude is a pitch to contact ground ball pitcher. When he gives up a long FB, he's probably made a mistake. It would not be unreasonable for a contact guy to give up more homers than the mean of all starting pitchers.



    Leake has a career HR/FB% of 13.8 that includes seasons of almost 17% and a low of 11.5%. So assuming for the sake of argument, Leake is an outlier, first, it would be innaprorpriate to normalize his FIP by HR/FB%. But second, your argument that his HR/FB% has meaningfully regressed frankly can't be supported. Last season it was simply lower than in previous years, really due to a great run of about 5 starts leading into the ASB. You can't use that as definitive proof he's regressed to the mean. You know why? Because just like everything else, his HR/FB% is subject to randomness. We're three starts into a narrative that Leake is equal to Latos, and guess what Leake's HR/FB% is? Yep, 16.7%.

    If Leake's HR/FB% ever does regress to something we'd consider to be normal, feel free to normalize his FIP for that season, by his HR/FB%. Until then, if you really need to normalize his FIP, you'd better find a different variable because your underlying assumption is not valid based upon what has actually happened on the field.

    This is basically stats 101 (baseball or theoretical).

    You really don't have the fast behind you on this.
    [/QUOTE]

    You're smarter than this, JoJo.

    No serious analysis would ever remove 5 starts from pitchers stats in order to make their point. Not a single one. If that was acceptable, one could remove 5 starts from any pitchers stars to make pretty much any argument they want.

    Seriously, you are much better than this.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #93
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    You're smarter than this, JoJo.

    No serious analysis would ever remove 5 starts from pitchers stats in order to make their point. Not a single one. If that was acceptable, one could remove 5 starts from any pitchers stars to make pretty much any argument they want.

    Seriously, you are much better than this.
    Given everything you've ignored in the argument, I'll take this to mean that you can't justify normalizing Leake's FIP by HR/FB%.

    And BTW, you're completely obfuscating the point that you can't argue his HR/FB% has regressed simply because he's had one season where his HR/FB% was happily less worse than in the past.
    Last edited by jojo; 04-16-2014 at 02:41 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #94
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Given everything you've ignored in the argument, I'll take this to mean that you can't justify normalizing Leake's FIP by HR/FB%.
    I don't have to justify it. Mike Leake justified it last year by normalizing it himself, exactly how decades of data predicted he would.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    I like Leake, he has a good career as a red so far and he will continue to produce good results. I doubt that he will pitch the complete season the way he does at the moment. He could possibly be the best of the bunch if you look at it in 20 years but I doubt that it happen. Cueto and Latos are the better pitchers and if those guys keep healthy I donīt see Leake in the same category. I still think Bailey will be better this season aswell
    "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

  7. #96
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I don't have to justify it. Mike Leake justified it last year by normalizing it himself, exactly how decades of data predicted he would.
    Actually you do have to justify if you want your xFIP-based argument to be considered compelling.

    It's a strange thing seeing someone with a history of criticizing WAR for its perceived flaws treating xFIP as inerrring in order to make an argument that Leake=Latos....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #97
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's pitched roughly 1100 innings as a starter in college and the majors having entered the majors pretty much developed from a command/repitoire stand point. At what point is a light supposed to go on? I think it's a bit risky to assume he will experience an increase in true talent due to increased "pitchability". He's had that since draft day and that's why he skipped the minors to begin with.
    A pitcher like Leake IMO learns fine points as he gains experience. His stuff won't get better, but his ability to understand and deceive hitters will.

    I saw it with Arroyo, who became a master at pitching with men on base, at deceiving hitters with slow stuff, at keeping them off balance.

    These kinds of pitchers take advantage of knowing the hitters, the umpires, and having been through these situations over and over. And they can really work on the fine points once they have established a degree of success and don't have to worry about just getting by in the majors.

    So I think Leake two years from now will likely be a better pitcher and will continue improving until there is physical decline in his stuff.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-16-2014 at 03:44 PM.

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Actually you do have to justify if you want your xFIP-based argument to be considered compelling.

    It's a strange thing seeing someone with a history of criticizing WAR for its perceived flaws treating xFIP as inerrring in order to make an argument that Leake=Latos....
    First, never said Leake=Latos. Just said that they were closer than I expected them to be.

    Second, my criticism of WAR for pitchers is that it doesn't use xFIP, or batted ball tendencies. Nothing inconsistent there at all.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    I suspect that Leake will be underrated his whole career. And that's probably why he's not good trade-bait.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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  12. #100
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Last night before I went to bed, I told myself that when I got back to the board tomorrow, there would be two people in here trying to diminish Leake

    I was one for two.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  14. #101
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    I think jojo has stated, REPEATEDLY that accurately portraying Mike Leake for what he is, is not diminishing him. Comparing Leake to Latos, Bailey or Cueto diminishes them.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  16. #102
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Well, I think its safe to say Cueto is the best of the bunch.

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  18. #103
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A pitcher like Leake IMO learns fine points as he gains experience. His stuff won't get better, but his ability to understand and deceive hitters will.

    I saw it with Arroyo, who became a master at pitching with men on base, at deceiving hitters with slow stuff, at keeping them off balance.

    These kinds of pitchers take advantage of knowing the hitters, the umpires, and the having been through these situations over and over. And they can really work on the fine points once they have established a degree of success and don't have to worry about just getting by in the majors.

    So I think Leake two years from now will likely be a better pitcher and will continue improving until there is physical decline in his stuff.
    Perfect summation.

    Some pitchers fly in the face of dogma. It's okay to embrace it when Dave Cameron isn't looking.
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  20. #104
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think jojo has stated, REPEATEDLY that accurately portraying Mike Leake for what he is, is not diminishing him. Comparing Leake to Latos, Bailey or Cueto diminishes them.
    Sure, if that's all it were, it would not be 'diminishing.' But it's pretty clear that is not all it is. When someone racks up nearly two dozen posts on the subject in such a short time, that's a pretty impassioned plea to the contrary. Given the history of showing up whenever a positive Leake thread/comment is made, one has to look at the big picture to see there's an agenda.

    The moral of the story is Leake is no Doug Fister.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  22. #105
    Member '69 & Vine's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake, Best of the Bunch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Leake is a strong 3 at worst. Calling him a back end arm is lolworthy.
    Agreed.


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