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Thread: All Things Stephenson

  1. #76
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Far too often people fall into the trap of thinking that the ascension of prospects is in a straight line to the big leagues. It's not. Heck, even someone as insanely good as Mike Trout went out to the Arizona Fall League a few years ago and just flat out stunk up the joint. He had a .600 OPS with 33 strikeouts and 5 walks in 111 PA. He was the best player in the big leagues five months later. Guys have their struggles. It happens to almost all of them.
    Yep, look at our own Billy Ham.
    Overall, he had solid numbers throughout his minor league career until 2013 AAA, then so many people lost faith in him.
    IIRC, Mez had a bad year (or two) in his minor league career too.
    Oh yea, and Lorenzen had a bad fall season and many gave up on him too. Now, Lorenzen is pitching well.

    I don't know the story about Stephenson, but we can't read too much into minor league stats. Maybe the Reds have him working on something.
    For example, just think how much better off Cingrani would've been if he was forced to throw more offspeed stuff in the minors, instead of 90% FBs.. maybe he would be doing less "learning on the job" in the majors. I'm not worried about Stephenson having a bad year in AA.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  4. #77
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Yep, look at our own Billy Ham.
    Overall, he had solid numbers throughout his minor league career until 2013 AAA, then so many people lost faith in him.
    IIRC, Mez had a bad year (or two) in his minor league career too.
    Oh yea, and Lorenzen had a bad fall season and many gave up on him too. Now, Lorenzen is pitching well.

    I don't know the story about Stephenson, but we can't read too much into minor league stats. Maybe the Reds have him working on something.
    For example, just think how much better off Cingrani would've been if he was forced to throw more offspeed stuff in the minors, instead of 90% FBs.. maybe he would be doing less "learning on the job" in the majors. I'm not worried about Stephenson having a bad year in AA.
    The bad years do impact timing, though. Some RedsZoners had Stephenson and Winker both in the bigs sometime next year. It's possible, but for planning it's usually best to assume a slow track.

    Look at Cingrani. Rocketed up to the bigs. Started great there. Then injury and ineffectiveness.

    Just need to take it slow with all these prospects, many will get there, but it's usually a long haul.

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  6. #78
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    I think most didn't expect Cingrani to continue to be effective w/ out a good secondary pitch. It just flies in the face of everything that baseball fans have seen forever. 2 pitches? Maybe, if they're great. One pitch wonder? N. Ryan/Tom Seaver couldn't get away w/ it, neither will Cingrani. His regression wasn't just expected, it was mandated by the baseball gods.

  7. #79
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Fans tend to get carried away with prospect expectations initially anyway. For every impact rookie there are probably ten rookies that eventually become solid big leaguers, even all stars, that start out the first couple seasons very uneven. Just talking guys that make it - not the high wash out rate which most guys expect. Expecting Stephenson, or Winker, or Lorenzen or any rookie to come in and have an immediate positive impact is asking to be disappointed. For 90% of them there is still a learning curve even when they make it to the big club.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Did I see correctly, Stephenson leads the Southern league in strikeouts? Certainly that's partly a function of spending the entire year there, but it's not like he's completely fallen off the map right? He's still striking out a fair share of batters, but his control needs some tweaking as he's likely hitting the first level where there's enough talent at identifying balls and strikes at the plate. No big deal, he'll likely start next year in the Lou and be ready to be called up in the event of emergency.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  10. #81
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Did I see correctly, Stephenson leads the Southern league in strikeouts? Certainly that's partly a function of spending the entire year there, but it's not like he's completely fallen off the map right? He's still striking out a fair share of batters, but his control needs some tweaking as he's likely hitting the first level where there's enough talent at identifying balls and strikes at the plate. No big deal, he'll likely start next year in the Lou and be ready to be called up in the event of emergency.
    It's not that guys are identifying the breaking ball now and they weren't before. Well, it is a little bit. But his control/command has absolutely taken a step backwards since last year. It's very clear to see if you watched him a lot last year and then watched him a lot this year.

  11. #82
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Doug, not a knock against scouting, but a blind man could see that Stephenson's control/command has taken a step backward from last season. All you have to know are the numbers.
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  12. #83
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Just picking your brain Doug, but at what point, did you say, "yep, his control is now an issue", in the sense that it has become a problem this season. Not a trick question, but you have a deep scouting background and I just am looking to see what your "burden of proof" was on this one.

  13. #84
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Just picking your brain Doug, but at what point, did you say, "yep, his control is now an issue", in the sense that it has become a problem this season. Not a trick question, but you have a deep scouting background and I just am looking to see what your "burden of proof" was on this one.
    At some point in May. But, I still don't think it's an issue in the long run. It's not like he didn't used to have it, so it's something that he can fix. Obviously the longer it goes unfixed, the more concern there is, but one season sure isn't enough to make me all that concerned about it given that he hasn't gone Daniel Corcino on us and also lost actual stuff too.

  14. #85
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie View Post
    Doug, not a knock against scouting, but a blind man could see that Stephenson's control/command has taken a step backward from last season. All you have to know are the numbers.
    Chuckie, I shouldn't have clicked on the "view post" option, but I did.

    Here's the difference: Some guys can have such good stuff in A-ball that they can have the kind of control shown by Stephenson this year and it won't result in a bunch of walks because guys are chasing and just overwhelmed by the pure stuff. So in theory, Stephenson could have not actually taken a step backwards in the control department this year and had the same results he's had the last two years. That isn't the case here, but it very well could have been.

    And that is one of fifty reasons you need to actually watch the games instead of just looking at the box scores.

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  16. #86
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Take all of the fun out of it..... jeeze!
    Says the person that apparently hates nicknames.

    You're an anti-nickite.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  17. #87
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Says the person that apparently hates nicknames.

    You're an anti-nickite.
    I'm not anti-nicknames, I just don't like ones that are forced.

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  19. #88
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Stephenson has been relatively healthy all season. He is now past last years total IP by 10, last year he had a 3+ week trip to the DL that gave him a bit of a break, but by the time he reached Pensacola he was hit around a little. Now he seems to be really be wearing down this season. Could it just be a case of the kid having to develop stamina?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  20. #89
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Stephenson has been relatively healthy all season. He is now past last years total IP by 10, last year he had a 3+ week trip to the DL that gave him a bit of a break, but by the time he reached Pensacola he was hit around a little. Now he seems to be really be wearing down this season. Could it just be a case of the kid having to develop stamina?
    Southern League leader in K, BB, and HR. 13th in IP, so it's not a function of that. Only one player above him in IP has a worse WHIP. Bummer of a season but he is young.

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  22. #90
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: All Things Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Southern League leader in K, BB, and HR. 13th in IP, so it's not a function of that. Only one player above him in IP has a worse WHIP. Bummer of a season but he is young.
    Not in relation to the league, but in relation to his prior workloads. He wore down last August as well.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.


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