Last edited by kpresidente; 04-21-2014 at 12:27 AM.
But you basically compared Hamilton to the three best base stealers of all time. I'm suggesting you can actually compare him to guys in the game today, unlike trying to find someone to compare to Barry Bonds or Ted Williams.
No, I think the comparison with the greats is fair. It's speed...you either have it or you don't, and you know right off the bat. It's not like hitting where you need to prove it over a few years before people believe it. If 20 games into his career, the stopwatch says he's as fast as those guys, then he's as fast as those guys.
Who's faster than Billy Hamilton and why didn't they steal 155 bases in AA? He's right now as fast as anybody who's played the game. And Dee Gordon is within range of Hamilton like ARod was within range of Bonds. The point is you can't analyze what pitchers do with a 30 SB guy on first and learn anything about what they'll do when Hamilton's on first. You have to look at only the best of the best, and that's not what Bill James was doing in that link.
With all due respect to how good ARod was, his career best OPS+ was 176. Joey Votto has been at that level. Twice (177 and 179). Barry Bonds topped 176 TEN TIMES. He topped 200 SIX TIMES. The guy posted a 230 OPS+ FOUR TIMES in his career with a career best 268. Yes, 268. Oh, he also has the three highest OPS+ seasons ever.
Again, guys are close to fast enough to be in range of Billy Hamilton. You pulled out ARod as a Bonds comp and it isn't even close. That is my point. Guys are close to as fast as Hamilton is. There may not be a bunch of them, but in any given season, you can find a handful of them in the Majors and probably another two handfuls in the minors. You aren't finding guys like Barry Bonds without going back to Ted Williams. Here is the list of players to post a 230 OPS+ or better since 1950: Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams. There have only been 11 seasons of 230 OPS+ in the history of baseball. Barry Bonds has four of them. Babe Ruth has three. Ted Williams has two. The other two guys played in 1884 and 1876.
It's a bad comparison.
2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)
But I'm more then content giving him more rope. I never said he couldn't, or wasn't capable, of improving. I guess the BIGGER question is - How long do you let that rope go if he continues to struggle?
And this FO, due to all their hype of BH, probably aren't gong to be too quick to send him down because it makes them look bad too.
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
The real fact is Hamilton is over .300 for the last 7 games. If you remove his first week against the Cards, he has hit something like .280. The doomsayers just want to say "I said it first" if he fails. Every one of the doomsayers, point to his AAA numbers saying he only got on base at a .318 clip in the minors, that ignores his numbers everywhere else in the minors. It's easy for the doomsayers to pick whatever stats they want to prove their point, but they ignore the stats that don't support their OPINION. Whenever people use certain stats and ignore others, I find they're just trying to support whatever agenda they have.
Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.
Don't worry about the short term cost of Billy batting leadoff. It's really not that big of a deal.
It's certainly not going to be the difference in the Reds making or missing the playoffs.
Now, in the playoffs if he has a 250 OBP for the entire year, then yes.. move him to #8 then.
Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Joey Votto hit .289 in his minor league career, Billy hit a career .280. Let's not judge Billy quite yet.
Oh yeah, as for his speed. A tenth of a second is a long time when the distance between a base is only 90 ft. It's silly to NOT compare him to some of the greatest runners in this sport. It doesn't matter if he steals another base this season he's still one of the fastest to ever play this game.
Last edited by RedsLvr; 04-21-2014 at 08:42 AM.
I don't think anybody is saying Hamilton is half the base line faster than the next fastest guy, but the fact of the matter is he is faster than the next fastest guy. You can downplay it all you want, but he is timed faster than anyone else. It's just true.