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Thread: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

  1. #121
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    Here's one on fastball usage with SB threats.

    http://www.billjamesonline.com/stats72/
    Yeah but there's a chasm of difference between "base-stealing threat" and Billy Hamilton. It's like analyzing every player that hit 20+ HRs then saying "aha, I find that pitchers don't change their approach that much for HR hitters, ergo nobody ever pitched around Barry Bonds in his prime." Tell me the percentage of fastballs thrown when Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Lou Brock were on first base and I'll listen, because that's the league Billy Hamilton's in.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 04-21-2014 at 12:27 AM.

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  4. #122
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Yeah but there's a chasm of difference between "base-stealing threat" and Billy Hamilton. It's like analyzing every player that hit 20+ HRs then saying "aha, I find that pitchers don't change their approach that much for HR hitters, ergo nobody ever pitched around Barry Bonds in his prime." Tell me the percentage of fastballs thrown when Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Lou Brock were on first base and I'll listen, because that's the league Billy Hamilton's in.
    Billy Hamilton isn't in some different world than guys like Mike Trout or Dee Gordon or Michael Bourne (a few years ago at least). The idea that Billy Hamilton is just so much faster than everyone else in baseball is one of the biggest misnomers going around. He is less than a tenth of a second faster than the other fastest dudes in the game. Your eyes can't even tell. If you weren't told he was timed faster and had to choose between him and Dee Gordon on who is faster, a lot of people would pick Gordon because you can't actually tell by simply watching them run unless they are racing each other.

  5. #123
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Billy Hamilton isn't in some different world than guys like Mike Trout or Dee Gordon or Michael Bourne (a few years ago at least). The idea that Billy Hamilton is just so much faster than everyone else in baseball is one of the biggest misnomers going around. He is less than a tenth of a second faster than the other fastest dudes in the game. Your eyes can't even tell. If you weren't told he was timed faster and had to choose between him and Dee Gordon on who is faster, a lot of people would pick Gordon because you can't actually tell by simply watching them run unless they are racing each other.
    The Bill James stat I responded to used 30+ steals as it's demarker. Yes, Hamilton's in a different world than that. He's an elite baserunner, one of the fastest ever, so that stat is useless.

  6. #124
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    The Bill James stat I responded to used 30+ steals as it's demarker. Yes, Hamilton's in a different world than that. He's an elite baserunner, one of the fastest ever, so that stat is useless.
    Than a 30 steal guy, sure. But more than 50-60 steal guys? Probably not.

    But you basically compared Hamilton to the three best base stealers of all time. I'm suggesting you can actually compare him to guys in the game today, unlike trying to find someone to compare to Barry Bonds or Ted Williams.

  7. #125
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    No, I think the comparison with the greats is fair. It's speed...you either have it or you don't, and you know right off the bat. It's not like hitting where you need to prove it over a few years before people believe it. If 20 games into his career, the stopwatch says he's as fast as those guys, then he's as fast as those guys.

  8. #126
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    No, I think the comparison with the greats is fair. It's speed...you either have it or you don't, and you know right off the bat. It's not like hitting where you need to prove it over a few years before people believe it. If 20 games into his career, the stopwatch says he's as fast as those guys, then he's as fast as those guys.
    The comparison isn't good. There are a lot more guys who are within range of Billy Hamilton as a runner than there are to Barry Bonds as a hitter. Billy Hamilton has elite speed,but there are more guys with elite speed than there are with elite hitting and power ability. Pitchers aren't seeing Billy Hamilton type speed for the first time in their lives if they have been around for a few years. What Barry Bonds was doing, that was literally the first time pitchers had seen a player do things like that in 60 years. It's a bad comparison.

  9. #127
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Who's faster than Billy Hamilton and why didn't they steal 155 bases in AA? He's right now as fast as anybody who's played the game. And Dee Gordon is within range of Hamilton like ARod was within range of Bonds. The point is you can't analyze what pitchers do with a 30 SB guy on first and learn anything about what they'll do when Hamilton's on first. You have to look at only the best of the best, and that's not what Bill James was doing in that link.

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  11. #128
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Who's faster than Billy Hamilton and why didn't they steal 155 bases in AA? He's right now as fast as anybody who's played the game. And Dee Gordon is within range of Hamilton like ARod was within range of Bonds. The point is you can't analyze what pitchers do with a 30 SB guy on first and learn anything about what they'll do when Hamilton's on first. You have to look at only the best of the best, and that's not what Bill James was doing in that link.
    There could be plenty of reasons other guys as fast as Hamilton, or very close to it, didn't steal 155 bags. They didn't get on base enough. Their managers didn't give them free reign to run. They didn't go a full season being healthy. They had some extra power and were on second to start more often than Hamilton was. It doesn't really matter.

    With all due respect to how good ARod was, his career best OPS+ was 176. Joey Votto has been at that level. Twice (177 and 179). Barry Bonds topped 176 TEN TIMES. He topped 200 SIX TIMES. The guy posted a 230 OPS+ FOUR TIMES in his career with a career best 268. Yes, 268. Oh, he also has the three highest OPS+ seasons ever.

    Again, guys are close to fast enough to be in range of Billy Hamilton. You pulled out ARod as a Bonds comp and it isn't even close. That is my point. Guys are close to as fast as Hamilton is. There may not be a bunch of them, but in any given season, you can find a handful of them in the Majors and probably another two handfuls in the minors. You aren't finding guys like Barry Bonds without going back to Ted Williams. Here is the list of players to post a 230 OPS+ or better since 1950: Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams. There have only been 11 seasons of 230 OPS+ in the history of baseball. Barry Bonds has four of them. Babe Ruth has three. Ted Williams has two. The other two guys played in 1884 and 1876.

    It's a bad comparison.

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  13. #129
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There could be plenty of reasons other guys as fast as Hamilton, or very close to it, didn't steal 155 bags. They didn't get on base enough. Their managers didn't give them free reign to run. They didn't go a full season being healthy. They had some extra power and were on second to start more often than Hamilton was. It doesn't really matter.

    With all due respect to how good ARod was, his career best OPS+ was 176. Joey Votto has been at that level. Twice (177 and 179). Barry Bonds topped 176 TEN TIMES. He topped 200 SIX TIMES. The guy posted a 230 OPS+ FOUR TIMES in his career with a career best 268. Yes, 268. Oh, he also has the three highest OPS+ seasons ever.

    Again, guys are close to fast enough to be in range of Billy Hamilton. You pulled out ARod as a Bonds comp and it isn't even close. That is my point. Guys are close to as fast as Hamilton is. There may not be a bunch of them, but in any given season, you can find a handful of them in the Majors and probably another two handfuls in the minors. You aren't finding guys like Barry Bonds without going back to Ted Williams. Here is the list of players to post a 230 OPS+ or better since 1950: Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams. There have only been 11 seasons of 230 OPS+ in the history of baseball. Barry Bonds has four of them. Babe Ruth has three. Ted Williams has two. The other two guys played in 1884 and 1876.

    It's a bad comparison.
    I usually side with you, but when scouts say Billy Hamilton has the fastest time they've ever clocked from home to first, it's not fair to say others are close, so it doesn't matter... He's the best ever as far as measurable speed goes, and it's not arguable.
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It's 3 weeks in to the season. Billy Hamilton has less than 100 career major league PA. Just wanted to remind people.
    Respectfully RMR, we all, including myself, realize this and are not discounting it. I said it was early and a "small window" for observation; but up to this point in the early stages of the season it has been ugly with BH. I didn't call for him to be immediately sent down, but only injected that IF by the halfway point he is still struggling the FO might want to "rethink" this. He is not only not helping the team, but he's not helping himself.

    But I'm more then content giving him more rope. I never said he couldn't, or wasn't capable, of improving. I guess the BIGGER question is - How long do you let that rope go if he continues to struggle?

    And this FO, due to all their hype of BH, probably aren't gong to be too quick to send him down because it makes them look bad too.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    The real fact is Hamilton is over .300 for the last 7 games. If you remove his first week against the Cards, he has hit something like .280. The doomsayers just want to say "I said it first" if he fails. Every one of the doomsayers, point to his AAA numbers saying he only got on base at a .318 clip in the minors, that ignores his numbers everywhere else in the minors. It's easy for the doomsayers to pick whatever stats they want to prove their point, but they ignore the stats that don't support their OPINION. Whenever people use certain stats and ignore others, I find they're just trying to support whatever agenda they have.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

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  18. #132
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by tomnuetten View Post
    patience? yes but give him the at bats as #7-9 hitter, not as leadoff until he can get on base enough.
    If he canīt hit or get on base in june itīs time to think about the minors... I think he will get better (not by much) but the small improvement will keep him in the big leagues this year
    How is he going to learn to hit leadoff, steal bases, etc at the bottom of the order?
    Don't worry about the short term cost of Billy batting leadoff. It's really not that big of a deal.
    It's certainly not going to be the difference in the Reds making or missing the playoffs.
    Now, in the playoffs if he has a 250 OBP for the entire year, then yes.. move him to #8 then.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Joey Votto hit .289 in his minor league career, Billy hit a career .280. Let's not judge Billy quite yet.

    Oh yeah, as for his speed. A tenth of a second is a long time when the distance between a base is only 90 ft. It's silly to NOT compare him to some of the greatest runners in this sport. It doesn't matter if he steals another base this season he's still one of the fastest to ever play this game.

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  21. #134
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The idea that Billy Hamilton is just so much faster than everyone else in baseball is one of the biggest misnomers going around. He is less than a tenth of a second faster than the other fastest dudes in the game.
    Ha. Ha. The difference between below average runners and above average runners in Scouting is TWO tenths of a second and you're saying ONLY a tenth of a second faster than the fastest runners. That's pretty significant.
    Last edited by RedsLvr; 04-21-2014 at 08:42 AM.

  22. #135
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    I don't think anybody is saying Hamilton is half the base line faster than the next fastest guy, but the fact of the matter is he is faster than the next fastest guy. You can downplay it all you want, but he is timed faster than anyone else. It's just true.
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