Reds with 6 win 4 loss stretch, now 48-42. Reds gained three on first place Brewers, now 3.5 out. Reds gained one on second place Cards, now .5 behind them. Reds and Pirates kept pace, Reds lead Bucs by one. Reds now with division best 20-10 record for last thirty games. Reds lagged in home games played, now on long home stand, home record up to 24-19, road record 24-23. Reds RS/RA at +24 trail Brewers with +28 but lead other three Central teams. Dodgers and Nats +53. Wild Card candidates all bunched now, Reds trail Nats/Giants/Braves but only by one game (with Cards also .5 ahead of Reds).
Reds with league's best record against teams currently at or above .500 with 29-23 record. However, Reds only at .500, 19-19 against teams below .500, having lost 5 of 6 to San Diego. Reds with 8 wins against Cubs, 7 against Brewers and Pirates, 5 over Giants. Votto back on DL, Barnhart up, Holmberg was up for one doubleheader start. Reds with short bench and 8 relievers currently. Reds with four All Stars named, Frazier, Cueto, Mesoraco, Chapman, and others possible as fill-ins.
Offense - Last time .693 OPS, this time .690, eighth in NL and below .696 NL average. Reds eighth in BA with .248 just below NL average of .249; OBP is .307 eleventh in NL and below .312 average; SLG is .384 eighth in NL and just at league average. For non-pitchers, Reds wRC+ is eleventh in NL at 98. With Reds OBP lagging, hits are tenth in league at 723 (but BA about average) and BABIP ninth at .301. Walks are 11th in league at 234. BB rate is tied for 10th-11th at 7.5% (top walking teams over 9%). Reds K rate is 19.6% which is sixth lowest in the league. Cards lowest at 17.4%. An increase in walk rate would help team reach average OBP.
Reds tenth in runs in NL at 352. Reds baserunning (Fangraphs) component of WAR is 1.3, ninth best in NL. This consists of two metrics: wSB, the stolen base aspect, in which Reds are fourth best in NL at 2.2, and UBR, the non-stolen base aspect of baserunning, in which the Reds are eleventh at -0.9.
Mesoraco maintaining very high hitting percentages, now with 213 PAs, with a line of .313/.376/.620/.995. Frazier having played in all but one game, is .289/.351/.493/.844. Votto at .799 OPS, Bruce .737 now with 10 homers after ended dry spell. Billy Hamilton now at .280/.312/.417/.730 with 37 stolen bases and with .877 OPS over last 30 days. Only other Reds hitter over .700 OPS is Ludwick at .708. Back to BB rate, the following with below 5% walk rates - Pena 4.9%, Phillips. Schumaker, Cozart all at 4.7%, Hamilton 4.4% (no pitcher wants to walk Hamilton). Several of these same players among lowest K rates on team, with Pena (11.4%) lowest and then Cozart, Phillips, Schumaker, Hamilton (18.6%) also among the lowest on team.
Pitching - Reds team ERA now seventh best in NL at 3.45 improved from 3.57 (ninth best) last time. Starters have gone from 3.44 to 3.32 now to 3.26, third best in NL. Bullpen had slipped to 4.15 last time but now improved to 3.96, still fourteenth in NL. Reds with 60 quality starts, trailing only the Braves with 64. Reds team BAA is .235 the lowest in the NL and hits allowed at 708 is the fewest in league. But team walk rate is 3.01, fifth highest in league.
Reds homers allowed per nine innings is fourth highest in league at 0.98 but overall SLG allowed is sixth lowest at .377 (tied). Pitching WAR (Fangraphs) is 6.8, eighth in league, FIP is 3.89, tenth in league, xFIP is 3.71 also tenth. Reds team ERA is 3.84 against lefty hitters, eleventh best in league. Against righty hitters 3.20 third best in league. Reds team ERA at home is 3.48 tenth best in league and just higher than league average. On the road Reds team ERA is third best in the NL at 3.43.
Last 30 days Reds best ERAs are Parra (only 3 outings no runs), Broxton 0.90 with 3-0 record, Simon, 35.2 innings at 2.02 also with 3-0 WL, Contreras 2.08 as a newly arrived reliever, Cueto 4-1 with 2.15, Latos 2.41. Also in that period Jumbo Diaz at 6.00 as new reliever, Cingrani (now DL'd at AAA) at 7.56 and Lecure with same. Back again to walk rate for full season Latos 1.34, Diaz 1.50, Leake 1.79, Simon 2.13, Cueto 2.16, Bailey 2.88. Many pitchers not on current roster or with very limited action are among team highest walk rates (Christiani, Cingrani, Partch, S. Marshall, Holmberg, Bell) also Parra 4.63, Hoover 5.25, Contreras 6.23. Highest K rates are Chapman 17.18, Hoover 10.50, Diaz 10.50, Parra 9.64, Sean Marshall 9.00, Cueto 8.76, Cingrani, 8.67, Bailey 8.15, Ondrusek 8.01. Simon with 5.48 K rate, Latos 4.81, Contreras 4.15.
Fielding - Reds with 36 errors still tops (fewest) in NL, Cards with 43. Reds DER (MLB.com) best in NL at .717, lead by far. Reds complete trifecta by leading NL in UZR at 28.3 with Cards second at 25.1, Braves third, nobody else close.
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Originally Posted by Raisor
