Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

[tomnuetten]

How is he going to learn to hit leadoff, steal bases, etc at the bottom of the order?
Don't worry about the short term cost of Billy batting leadoff. It's really not that big of a deal.
It's certainly not going to be the difference in the Reds making or missing the playoffs.
Now, in the playoffs if he has a 250 OBP for the entire year, then yes.. move him to #8 then.

Learning to hit leadoff? he should learn to get on base and it doesn´t matter if it´s as #7 hitter or #1! Stealing bases shouldn´t be different from the leadoff spot or anywhere else. If he gets on base as #6/7 hitter he´ll likely do the same as leadoff guy

he´ll get some less at bats if he plays at the end of the lineup but that won´t hurt his development

[Trajinous]

58.3% last year for Votto on fastballs, 56.2% for his career. So far this season (for the full season, not just with Billy on base), 63.2%. Random variance? Maybe. But it is certainly worth keeping an eye on moving forward.

This is why I think Hamilton is so special and needs to stay at the top of the line-up. I think he'd be wasted hitting lower in the lineup. Hamilton is like a power-hitter but instead he's a power-runner. He may not hit many singles but when he does they are turned into double/triples from the basepaths.

[dougdirt]

This is why I think Hamilton is so special and needs to stay at the top of the line-up. I think he'd be wasted hitting lower in the lineup. Hamilton is like a power-hitter but instead he's a power-runner. He may not hit many singles but when he does they are turned into double/triples from the basepaths.

And guys like that (the power hitter you are talking about - who doesn't draw walks), bat down in the lineup.

It's also entirely possible that Votto is seeing more fastballs because Jay Bruce was batting behind him for a little bit of the season and pitchers didn't want to walk him to face Bruce with a runner on. I haven't looked at the data to see how the splits are, but until someone does, that theory holds as much water as Billy Hamilton being on base a handful of times with Votto at the plate does.

[wheels]

Your parents shouldn't have named you wheels.

I'm the slowest runner on earth. It's not even close.

[wheels]

It's none of your business. You hear me?

[NebraskaRed]

It's none of your business. You hear me?

[villain612]

I have no idea if Billy Hamilton is gonna be a successful major leaguer or not....but it sure was entertaining to watch him beat out a grounder to first base yesterday.

[REDREAD]

If he hits lead off all year and has a 250 OBP Price and Walt should be fired.

Perfect example of a short term goal overriding the long term goal.
How many extra runs do you predict the Reds would gain if Billy was moved out of the leadoff spot and to whatever spot you suggest?

The big picture says that if he has a 250 OBP, that's going to hurt us no matter where he hits.
Might as well hit him leadoff, since there's a greater chances the bases will be empty and he can leverage his speed.
Example: hitting behind Mez might reduce his chances.
Plus, there's the advantage of Joey MAYBE getting more fastballs when Hamilton is on base in front of him.

Do you really think Billy's position in the lineup is going to determine whether we make the playoffs or not?
I know you like to use the numbers to try to "optimize", but we've been through this exercise before where the "theoretical best lineup" only adds maybe 10 runs over the season,
and your defense is "might as well optimize, every little bit helps".. However, you fail to realize that the simulations make so many assumptions, that 10 runs over a season (from different
simulations) is pure noise and might not even be accurate.

Saying Walt and Price should be fired based on a lineup is short-sighted and over-reactive.

[REDREAD]

It fascinates me that people try and use a different approach in different parts of the lineup.

Look, I know that it happens. But it shouldn't. Get on base. Hit the ball hard. Those should be your goals no matter where you are batting in the lineup. Period.

Well, some players would say that you approach an at bat based on the situation. Are the bases empty? How many outs? etc,
You may disagree with that approach, but it's been part of baseball culture for over 100 years, and many player still believe it, right or wrong.

How is Billy going to learn to be a leadoff hitter batting behind Mez though?
Doesn't that specific example seem to illustrate that Billy's best skill (speed) might be wasted if he gets on with Mez, Ludwick, or Frasier already on base?

[dubc47834]

It's none of your business. You hear me?

HUH??????

[REDREAD]

Learning to hit leadoff? he should learn to get on base and it doesn´t matter if it´s as #7 hitter or #1! Stealing bases shouldn´t be different from the leadoff spot or anywhere else. If he gets on base as #6/7 hitter he´ll likely do the same as leadoff guy

he´ll get some less at bats if he plays at the end of the lineup but that won´t hurt his development

This whole OBP argument ignores the possibility that when Billy does get on MAYBE he can score at a higher rate than the average player.
As far as I know, there's no line up simulation machine that can factor in the ability of someone like Hamilton.
Would any computer simulation have Billy scoring on Jay Bruce's popup to LF? I doubt it.

Anyhow, I'm glad Price is willing to think outside the box and is not a slave to OBP.
Truth is, we have a shortage of high OBP guys on this team. Price needs to make do with what he has.

If Billy doesn't bat leadoff, who does?
If you say Phillips, Votto, or Bruce you are just creating a hole at 2-4 lineup positions.

So who leads off then? Frasier? That's about the only choice, because having Ludwick, Cozart or Mez lead off is totally ludicrous.
Honestly, Frasier leading off is ludicrous too, as he's also OBP challenged.. but I guess he's the best of the leftovers.

[powersackers]

I agree with Doug on this one. Nobody is saying Billy isn't the fastest guy in the league. But the actual difference between him and several other guys is miniscule. Less than a 1/10 of a second...think about that for a minute or two.

There's a bunch more to stealing bases than just being fast. Thus far in the bigs, we've seen that he is fast. But we haven't seen good reads of the pitcher, solid secondary leads, excellent jumps...at least not regularly. Quite often it's a bang-bang play or even the ball beating him there by quite a bit. He's got a long way to go before he should be compared to Henderson, Raines, etc. The only time I put him in with that group is when I talk about the effect he has on the pitcher and defense when he's on base. The amount of distraction he is causing. That's on par with those all-time great thieves. But that's mostly just because of his reputation coming into the league...not MLB results.

He's currently 7 for 9 in SB's. It really should be 6 for 9 or even 5 for 9. With a halfway decent tag, he'd be toast on two of those for sure.

Less than halfway decent tags are caused by rushing the process. And other players get safe on poor tags too.

[dougdirt]

Well, some players would say that you approach an at bat based on the situation. Are the bases empty? How many outs? etc,
You may disagree with that approach, but it's been part of baseball culture for over 100 years, and many player still believe it, right or wrong.

How is Billy going to learn to be a leadoff hitter batting behind Mez though?
Doesn't that specific example seem to illustrate that Billy's best skill (speed) might be wasted if he gets on with Mez, Ludwick, or Frasier already on base?

He learns to be a leadoff hitter by getting on base as much as possible and trying to hit the ball hard when he does choose to swing. Just like he should if he were hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th. No matter what the situation is, unless specified by your manager to bunt, that should be your goal. Try to hit the ball hard and if they don't give you something to hit hard, take a walk.

[REDREAD]

He learns to be a leadoff hitter by getting on base as much as possible and trying to hit the ball hard when he does choose to swing. Just like he should if he were hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th. No matter what the situation is, unless specified by your manager to bunt, that should be your goal. Try to hit the ball hard and if they don't give you something to hit hard, take a walk.

If Hamilton doesn't bat leadoff, who does?
How many runs over the season (if any) are the reds losing by batting Hamilton leadoff instead?

These questions need to be answered before moving Billy to the 7th or 8th position in the lineup, IMO.

We had a similar debate once where people claimed Zach Cozart was killing us by batting #2, but when you do the actual analysis.. it really wasn't hurting us.
In other words. Take the number of plate appearances by lineup position last year.
Take each players OBP and figure out the total number of baserunners for a given lineup.
It made very little difference whether Cozart batted 2nd or 8th.
I can't remember the exact amount, but we can do the exercise again with Billy.

Give me your "optimal" lineup, and I will compare vs Price's lineup.

[NebraskaRed]

Deadspin had a fun little gif: