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Thread: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

  1. #181
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    It's none of your business. You hear me?
    HUH??????

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  3. #182
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by tomnuetten View Post
    Learning to hit leadoff? he should learn to get on base and it doesn´t matter if it´s as #7 hitter or #1! Stealing bases shouldn´t be different from the leadoff spot or anywhere else. If he gets on base as #6/7 hitter he´ll likely do the same as leadoff guy

    he´ll get some less at bats if he plays at the end of the lineup but that won´t hurt his development
    This whole OBP argument ignores the possibility that when Billy does get on MAYBE he can score at a higher rate than the average player.
    As far as I know, there's no line up simulation machine that can factor in the ability of someone like Hamilton.
    Would any computer simulation have Billy scoring on Jay Bruce's popup to LF? I doubt it.

    Anyhow, I'm glad Price is willing to think outside the box and is not a slave to OBP.
    Truth is, we have a shortage of high OBP guys on this team. Price needs to make do with what he has.

    If Billy doesn't bat leadoff, who does?
    If you say Phillips, Votto, or Bruce you are just creating a hole at 2-4 lineup positions.

    So who leads off then? Frasier? That's about the only choice, because having Ludwick, Cozart or Mez lead off is totally ludicrous.
    Honestly, Frasier leading off is ludicrous too, as he's also OBP challenged.. but I guess he's the best of the leftovers.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  5. #183
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I agree with Doug on this one. Nobody is saying Billy isn't the fastest guy in the league. But the actual difference between him and several other guys is miniscule. Less than a 1/10 of a second...think about that for a minute or two.

    There's a bunch more to stealing bases than just being fast. Thus far in the bigs, we've seen that he is fast. But we haven't seen good reads of the pitcher, solid secondary leads, excellent jumps...at least not regularly. Quite often it's a bang-bang play or even the ball beating him there by quite a bit. He's got a long way to go before he should be compared to Henderson, Raines, etc. The only time I put him in with that group is when I talk about the effect he has on the pitcher and defense when he's on base. The amount of distraction he is causing. That's on par with those all-time great thieves. But that's mostly just because of his reputation coming into the league...not MLB results.

    He's currently 7 for 9 in SB's. It really should be 6 for 9 or even 5 for 9. With a halfway decent tag, he'd be toast on two of those for sure.
    Less than halfway decent tags are caused by rushing the process. And other players get safe on poor tags too.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    Mmm...that smells good; what is it?

  7. #185
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, some players would say that you approach an at bat based on the situation. Are the bases empty? How many outs? etc,
    You may disagree with that approach, but it's been part of baseball culture for over 100 years, and many player still believe it, right or wrong.

    How is Billy going to learn to be a leadoff hitter batting behind Mez though?
    Doesn't that specific example seem to illustrate that Billy's best skill (speed) might be wasted if he gets on with Mez, Ludwick, or Frasier already on base?
    He learns to be a leadoff hitter by getting on base as much as possible and trying to hit the ball hard when he does choose to swing. Just like he should if he were hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th. No matter what the situation is, unless specified by your manager to bunt, that should be your goal. Try to hit the ball hard and if they don't give you something to hit hard, take a walk.

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  9. #186
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He learns to be a leadoff hitter by getting on base as much as possible and trying to hit the ball hard when he does choose to swing. Just like he should if he were hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th. No matter what the situation is, unless specified by your manager to bunt, that should be your goal. Try to hit the ball hard and if they don't give you something to hit hard, take a walk.
    If Hamilton doesn't bat leadoff, who does?
    How many runs over the season (if any) are the reds losing by batting Hamilton leadoff instead?

    These questions need to be answered before moving Billy to the 7th or 8th position in the lineup, IMO.

    We had a similar debate once where people claimed Zach Cozart was killing us by batting #2, but when you do the actual analysis.. it really wasn't hurting us.
    In other words. Take the number of plate appearances by lineup position last year.
    Take each players OBP and figure out the total number of baserunners for a given lineup.
    It made very little difference whether Cozart batted 2nd or 8th.
    I can't remember the exact amount, but we can do the exercise again with Billy.

    Give me your "optimal" lineup, and I will compare vs Price's lineup.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #187
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Deadspin had a fun little gif:


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  12. #188
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    The last three years the average NL lead off guy has had an OBP of about 326.

    Billy needs to be about there to lead off IMO otherwise I'd put Phillips there.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  13. #189
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    58.3% last year for Votto on fastballs, 56.2% for his career. So far this season (for the full season, not just with Billy on base), 63.2%. Random variance? Maybe. But it is certainly worth keeping an eye on moving forward.
    The 63.2% is likely either an error or a change in how cut fastballs are rolling into the report because that particular field is blank.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  14. #190
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    For the record I'm not someone that believes in set spots for a lineup. If Rocco is killing the ball move him up, if someone is struggling move him down.

    With how everyone is hitting right now, and a few hopes:

    Phillips
    Votto
    Bruce
    Rocco
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    BHam
    Cozart
    Pitcher
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  16. #191
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Just want to mention that a tenth of a second is a huge margin between fast guys. It's about five feet.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  18. #192
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the record I'm not someone that believes in set spots for a lineup. If Rocco is killing the ball move him up, if someone is struggling move him down.

    With how everyone is hitting right now, and a few hopes:

    Phillips
    Votto
    Bruce
    Rocco
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    BHam
    Cozart
    Pitcher
    I'd try this, except I'd be hesitant to bat Cozart after Hamilton. It might work if Cozart can be a little more patient at the plate and give Hamilton a couple chances to steal before he inevitably hits the ball right to SS/2B.

  19. #193
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the record I'm not someone that believes in set spots for a lineup. If Rocco is killing the ball move him up, if someone is struggling move him down.

    With how everyone is hitting right now, and a few hopes:

    Phillips
    Votto
    Bruce
    Rocco
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    BHam
    Cozart
    Pitcher
    I like this, but, I'd move Hamilton ahead of Frazier. It gives them one legit shot at driving him in, one total shot in the dark, then the pitcher.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    I see Hamilton's abilities as being wasted in that line-up. We are now hoping our worst hitters, Cozart and the pitchers, can hit Hamilton in. Sure he can still steal but it's useless when Cozart/Pitcher leave Hamilton stranded on third. Hamilton has an unique ability to make weak hits into productive hits. A bouncer to SS can be a fairly easy RBI with Hamilton on third. Cozart/Pitcher as the lease likely to put the ball in play therefore taking away scoring opportunities.

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    Old school 1983 (04-21-2014)

  23. #195
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    I see Hamilton's abilities as being wasted in that line-up. We are now hoping our worst hitters, Cozart and the pitchers, can hit Hamilton in. Sure he can still steal but it's useless when Cozart/Pitcher leave Hamilton stranded on third. Hamilton has an unique ability to make weak hits into productive hits. A bouncer to SS can be a fairly easy RBI with Hamilton on third. Cozart/Pitcher as the lease likely to put the ball in play therefore taking away scoring opportunities.
    I disagree. Having Hamilton on base gives C0zart's banjo shots added significance. Zach loves to bounce out to short. He probably does it better than anyone.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn


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