The last three years the average NL lead off guy has had an OBP of about 326.
Billy needs to be about there to lead off IMO otherwise I'd put Phillips there.
The last three years the average NL lead off guy has had an OBP of about 326.
Billy needs to be about there to lead off IMO otherwise I'd put Phillips there.
The 63.2% is likely either an error or a change in how cut fastballs are rolling into the report because that particular field is blank.Originally Posted by dougdirt
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
For the record I'm not someone that believes in set spots for a lineup. If Rocco is killing the ball move him up, if someone is struggling move him down.
With how everyone is hitting right now, and a few hopes:
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rocco
Ludwick
Frazier
BHam
Cozart
Pitcher
Just want to mention that a tenth of a second is a huge margin between fast guys. It's about five feet.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
cincyinco (04-23-2014),Old school 1983 (04-21-2014),traderumor (04-21-2014),westofyou (04-21-2014)
I'd try this, except I'd be hesitant to bat Cozart after Hamilton. It might work if Cozart can be a little more patient at the plate and give Hamilton a couple chances to steal before he inevitably hits the ball right to SS/2B.
I like this, but, I'd move Hamilton ahead of Frazier. It gives them one legit shot at driving him in, one total shot in the dark, then the pitcher.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
Raisor (04-21-2014)
I see Hamilton's abilities as being wasted in that line-up. We are now hoping our worst hitters, Cozart and the pitchers, can hit Hamilton in. Sure he can still steal but it's useless when Cozart/Pitcher leave Hamilton stranded on third. Hamilton has an unique ability to make weak hits into productive hits. A bouncer to SS can be a fairly easy RBI with Hamilton on third. Cozart/Pitcher as the lease likely to put the ball in play therefore taking away scoring opportunities.
Old school 1983 (04-21-2014)
I disagree. Having Hamilton on base gives C0zart's banjo shots added significance. Zach loves to bounce out to short. He probably does it better than anyone.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
To be fair, BHam is also one of our worst hitters at this moment.
The speed is more important when you're dealing with lower SLG guys after him. Cozart needs help getting people into scoring position.
Hamilton, the last 7 days: .318 .348 .364 .711
Now it may take time to get his overall numbers up, but if you look at it from 04/14/14 on then forget what happened the first 2 weeks. He may be starting to figure it out.
It's all about adjustments. He's making some. Let's see how pitchers react.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Always Red (04-21-2014),joshua (04-22-2014),M2 (04-21-2014),Old school 1983 (04-21-2014),REDREAD (04-21-2014),Trajinous (04-21-2014)
Hate the idea of having Hamilton on first base with Cozart (or BP) hacking away.
Someone who gets on base more often than he does.
In 2013 the Cincinnati Reds 2nd spot came to the plate 116 times more than the 8th spot. That is very significant.We had a similar debate once where people claimed Zach Cozart was killing us by batting #2, but when you do the actual analysis.. it really wasn't hurting us.
In other words. Take the number of plate appearances by lineup position last year.
Take each players OBP and figure out the total number of baserunners for a given lineup.
It made very little difference whether Cozart batted 2nd or 8th.
I can't remember the exact amount, but we can do the exercise again with Billy.
Probably:Give me your "optimal" lineup, and I will compare vs Price's lineup.
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Mesoraco
Ludwick
Frazier
Hamilton
Cozart
Pitcher
On days where Mesoraco isn't starting, slide the catcher from 4th to 6th, with Ludwick and Frazier moving up.
Against lefties, flip Mesoraco and Bruce.
Hitting Phillips leadoff isn't ideal, but it's the best option IMO right now. If Hamilton starts to show he can get on base over a 30% clip, maybe he can start to move up. But for right now? Nope.
It actually isn't ideal right now. knee jerk reactions to Hamilton's slow start are not ideal. Players need to know the team and the manager have faith in them. Votto publicly stating Hamilton provides him protection was very important.
And the current splits say Phillips is ice cold.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/ba...incinnati-reds
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Ok, thanks. You and Rasier had the same lineup,so I will work the math at home.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
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