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Thread: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

  1. #271
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast


    Just treating this as an all things B Hamilton thread to throw this into.

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  4. #272
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    20 more base runners for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce may lead to 10-15 runs (of those 20 extra times on base, a few will be hits and a few will come with another runner on and drive that guy in, then Votto will drive in some of that 20 times on in and of those 20 times, Votto gets on base 8 times to add another runner on). That is pretty significant.
    It might lead to 0,8, 10, 15, or 20 runs.. (The Reds converted at 35% last year, in another post I adjusted to 10)
    But we are also losing runs by moving Billy H out of the leadoff.
    That first run of the game last night. If Phillips had been hit by the pitch, and everything else was identical.. the Reds wouldn't have been leading 1-0.

    Sorry, but 10-15 hypothetical runs over a season is not worth stunting Billy H's growth.
    Billy H in the leadoff spot is not going to cost us a playoff spot.
    If we fail to make the playoffs, it's going to be our poor record in 1 run games or something like that.
    Heck, Hoover has already cost us 1 game vs the Mets and 2 vs the Pirates. The bullpen situation has already cost us more than what Billy H will cost us the entire year (if Billy H is actually costing us anything, he's already earned at least 2 runs out of the hypothetical 10 that he's costing us).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

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  5. #273
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?

    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?

    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  6. #274
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    While it's true that Choo is awesome, and we all love him, he is also on the very top of every chart that junkhead posts.

    It is what it is. It all comes back to Choo.

    Yes, I know junkheads love affair with Choo. I just didn't know what all those numbers were. I eventually went to his link and figured out what they were...

  7. #275
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I asked the thread for their optimal lineup and did the work.
    If someone else wants to do an alternate analysis, they are welcome to.
    I don't like lineup simulators if they are simple random number generators.
    They just aren't realistic. We see things in baseball video games like the pitcher walking 7 guys in a row because the opposing lineup is full of high OBP guys. That just doesn't happen in real life.
    Lots of assumptions in simulators.

    Since this whole argument vs Billy H is OBP based, I think it's best to see how many base runners Billy leading off costs us.
    The answer is 28 (unless I am shown to the contrary)

    We can argue how many runs that means, but as a point of reference, last year the Reds had 1955 baserunners and scored 698 runs. That's a conversion rate of 35.7%.. So apply that to the 28 runners and you get 10 runs rounded up.. Still, not many.. 28 more guys on base out of 1955 (last year)..
    You're doing a "simulation" as well. You're just doing a much much worse job of it.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  8. #276
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    So the Redszone lineup has 20 extra on base events (before correcting for the extra outs) if Billy only has an OBP 250

    If Billy H has an OBP of 275, the Redszone lineup gains 16.5 more baserunners. The Billy Lineup gains 19, so the raw number of extra baserunners is reduced from 20 to 17.5

    If Billy has an OBP 300, the Redszone lineup gains 33 baserunners. The Billy lineup gains 38. The raw number of extra baserunners is reduced from 20 to 15.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #277
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?

    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?

    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    I would re-evaluate Billy H leading off at July 1.
    I would use coaches input on his development more than stats, because I see Billy as a long term investment. As long as the Reds feel he's developing at the ML level, keep him in the leadoff slot.
    If he's not developing, send him to AAA.
    So, yea.. basically there's no statistical argument that could talk me out of batting him leadoff at this point.
    Now if someone could prove to me that Billy H is costing this team 50 runs or so, I'd be inclined to listen.

    His lineup position probably costs us less runs than the defensive improvement he's giving us over Choo.

    Another thing I don't understand.. Lots of clamouring over the last 2 years to give Mez more playing time for his development. Yet the same people now don't want to sacrifice a trivial amount of hyptothetical lineup optimization to develop Billy? It just doesn't make sense.
    I like Mez, I think he has a bright future, but he's not a finished product either (esp defensively)

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    You're doing a "simulation" as well. You're just doing a much much worse job of it.
    At least I am willing to put the time into doing it. I don't tell people they are wrong and to google why.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #278
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?

    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?

    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    I guess that depends on how consistent the havoc is when he is on the bases and if you're giving him any credit for what pitches other guys see, but if you want a number, I will say .260 after 2 months of PAs. Below that, I don't know if he should be in the lineup at all. Just start Heisey and take a hit on defense if we're talking lower than that. Subjectively, I think at .260 he will steal about 15 runs a year outside of his actual hitting through SBs, extra bases, avoiding DPs, causing errors, pitch selection etc. I would probably cut that about in half hitting somewhere else in the order. So that would mean just reordering the lineup to something like BP, Votto, Frazier, Bruce, Ludwick, Mes, BH, Cozart, P would have to give you 7-8 runs more for other reasons. I think that sounds about accurate so that is about my breaking point.

  11. #279
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I would re-evaluate Billy H leading off at July 1.
    I would use coaches input on his development more than stats, because I see Billy as a long term investment. As long as the Reds feel he's developing at the ML level, keep him in the leadoff slot.
    If he's not developing, send him to AAA.
    So, yea.. basically there's no statistical argument that could talk me out of batting him leadoff at this point.
    Now if someone could prove to me that Billy H is costing this team 50 runs or so, I'd be inclined to listen.

    His lineup position probably costs us less runs than the defensive improvement he's giving us over Choo.

    Another thing I don't understand.. Lots of clamouring over the last 2 years to give Mez more playing time for his development. Yet the same people now don't want to sacrifice a trivial amount of hyptothetical lineup optimization to develop Billy? It just doesn't make sense.
    I like Mez, I think he has a bright future, but he's not a finished product either (esp defensively)

    - - - Updated - - -



    At least I am willing to put the time into doing it. I don't tell people they are wrong and to google why.

    Redread try this tool

    http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-b...eupAnalysis.py

  12. #280
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    I guess that depends on how consistent the havoc is when he is on the bases and if you're giving him any credit for what pitches other guys see, but if you want a number, I will say .260 after 2 months of PAs. Below that, I don't know if he should be in the lineup at all. Just start Heisey and take a hit on defense if we're talking lower than that. Subjectively, I think at .260 he will steal about 15 runs a year outside of his actual hitting through SBs, extra bases, avoiding DPs, causing errors, pitch selection etc. I would probably cut that about in half hitting somewhere else in the order. So that would mean just reordering the lineup to something like BP, Votto, Frazier, Bruce, Ludwick, Mes, BH, Cozart, P would have to give you 7-8 runs more for other reasons. I think that sounds about accurate so that is about my breaking point.
    So at 260 OBP Hamilton would be an average lead off hitter?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  13. #281
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?

    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?

    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    To me its all about how well he turns times on base into runs. BH's efficiency on the base paths. Using a 600 AB season, if BH gets on base .300 but scores at a higher than average 35% (using REDREAD's 30% baseline) he will score more runs than someone who is on base 35% of the time but only scores at 30%. Even if he only gets on base 28% of the time but he increase his efficiency to 40% he would be better than a .350 hitter at 30% efficiency.

    I don't know if there is a proper way to measure BH's effect on the hitter while he is on base. If Joey Votto says that BH gives him protection when he is on base, I believe him. If Joey Votto says when BH is on base he feels like he sees more fast balls, where do I sign up.

  14. #282
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    So at 260 OBP Hamilton would be an average lead off hitter?
    I assumed we were talking about within the context of this team and our options.

    eta: more specifically, unless you want to move Votto or Bruce there or think Mes is going to remain Buster Posey, we're going to be below avg at leadoff even if we move guys around. I was comparing the option of leaving Billy to the realistic alternatives. I do see that part of your post included asking about average. I don't have any feel for that mostly because I don't know the other teams that well to know what is average.
    Last edited by swaisuc; 04-22-2014 at 02:14 PM.

  15. #283
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?
    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?
    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    .280-ish to keep him at leadoff on the Reds
    .300-ish to make him league-average

    Bill James says a stolen base is worth 0.0005 OBP with a 70% rate. I think Bill would be fine with counting "extra bases advanced on ground balls and forced errors" as stolen bases and I don't think there's much more to "havoc" than that. So a .280 OBP with, say 70 SBs and maybe 20 bases advanced (projected) gives you a .320 OBP equivalent. That's certainly below-average but who else on this team is going to top it?

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  17. #284
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    .280-ish to keep him at leadoff on the Reds
    .300-ish to make him league-average

    Bill James says a stolen base is worth 0.0005 OBP with a 70% rate. I think Bill would be fine with counting "extra bases advanced on ground balls and forced errors" as stolen bases and I don't think there's much more to "havoc" than that. So a .280 OBP with, say 70 SBs and maybe 20 bases advanced (projected) gives you a .320 OBP equivalent. That's certainly below-average but who else on this team is going to top it?
    You're describing almost exactly what Willy Taveras did with Colorado in 2008, but with a better SB (69 SB w/@91%) success rate; helping contribute to a big 12.3 Runs for his base running. Even factoring that in, he was worth negative offensive value (6 Runs) versus replacement level despite a .308 OBP and power numbers (.291 SLG) we can expect from Hamilton. As it applies to actual run value, if Hamilton does that same thing, he may have an shot to get back to replacement level. Not a high bar.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    FYI, that's the exact tool I used when calculating the values I posted in response to redread.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams


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