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Thread: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

  1. #271
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So you're saying since the Redszone lineup has 20 more baserunners, that means 20 less outs over the season..
    Ok.. Let's assume a league average .320 OBP (non pitchers).. and give them 20 more plate appearances..
    20 * .32 = 6 more baserunners.

    Then those 6 extra baserunners *. 32 = 1.8 more

    So maybe it's 28 extra baserunners over the course of the season.
    That means 28 * .31 = 8.6 extra runs instead of 6 runs.
    Still insignificant, and I'm being generous using .320 because the pitcher will consume some of those extra at bats.

    If you are saying I did something else wrong, please recalculate it and show me.
    I'm honestly interested in the truth here.
    I just don't see lineups making that much of a real difference.
    Those eight runs over the course of a season could mean a win or two. Those extra two, three wins mean a lot to a cuspy team like our Reds.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

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  3. #272
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Those eight runs over the course of a season could mean a win or two. Those extra two, three wins mean a lot to a cuspy team like our Reds.
    It could. Also, having Billy taking bases with nobody in front of him when he does get on could be worth 2 or 3 wins to a cuspy team like the Reds. It's not as easy to quantify a "right answer" as any of us want it to be. While I think it's interesting to quantify how many runs we may be sacrificing with BH leading off (maybe more than 8 if you factor OPS), I think the other side of the equation (how many runs we get because nobody is in front of BH) is much harder to quantify.

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  5. #273
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Those eight runs over the course of a season could mean a win or two. Those extra two, three wins mean a lot to a cuspy team like our Reds.
    Using hindsight Billy has created 2 runs this season that no one else in baseball does. The game against St. Louis and then last night in the 1st inning. Billy can do special things on the base path that no other player in baseball can do.

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    REDREAD (04-22-2014)

  7. #274
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    So you're saying since the Redszone lineup has 20 more baserunners, that means 20 less outs over the season..
    Ok.. Let's assume a league average .320 OBP (non pitchers).. and give them 20 more plate appearances..
    20 * .32 = 6 more baserunners.

    Then those 6 extra baserunners *. 32 = 1.8 more

    So maybe it's 28 extra baserunners over the course of the season.
    That means 28 * .31 = 8.6 extra runs instead of 6 runs.
    Still insignificant, and I'm being generous using .320 because the pitcher will consume some of those extra at bats.

    If you are saying I did something else wrong, please recalculate it and show me.
    I'm honestly interested in the truth here.
    I just don't see lineups making that much of a real difference.
    Probably the best thing you can do is google up one of the online lineup optimization tools. Even using some reasonable performance assumptions, the general "optimal" lineup would project to score around 4.3 to 4.4 Runs per game. That lineup would have Votto rather than Phillips in the leadoff slot BTW. The "worst" versions would project to score around 3.6 to 3.7 R/G. Over the course of a season, that's around 117 Runs due to the cumulative effect of adding PA over time for the optimal version coupled with the stacking of base-acquiition attributes.

    Now 117 Runs is an extreme case; optimized versus crap so to speak. But we can fraction that and understand that half that effect is worth @6 wins; one-tenth almost two wins. Lineups do matter but, of course, matter less the longer a team sticks with an out machine in the leadoff slot (see: Taveras, Wily or Patterson, Corey). Right now Price should just move the whole lineup up a slot; with Hamilton helping by falling to 9th (or 8th for the faint of heart).
    Last edited by SteelSD; 04-22-2014 at 11:55 AM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  8. #275
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Probably the best thing you can do is google up one of the online lineup optimization tools. Even using some reasonable performance assumptions, the general "optimal" lineup would project to score around 4.3 to 4.4 Runs per game. That lineup would have Votto rather than Phillips in the leadoff slot BTW. The "worst" versions would project to score around 3.6 to 3.7 R/G. Over the course of a season, that's around 117 Runs due to the cumulative effect of adding PA over time for the optimal version coupled with the stacking of base-acquiition attributes.

    Now 117 Runs is an extreme case; optimized versus crap so to speak. But we can fraction that and understand that half that effect is worth @6 wins; one-tenth almost two wins. Lineups do matter but, of course, matter less the longer a team sticks with an out machine in the leadoff slot (see: Taveras, Wily or Patterson, Corey). Right now Price should just move the whole lineup up a slot; with Hamilton helping by falling to 9th (or 8th for the faint of heart).
    Do those optimization tools factor in Billy Hamilton speed and base running? Guy can turn ground balls to the 1st baseman into hits. HBP to runs, BB's to 3b's.

    I don't think moving Billy down in the order maximizes his value. He may struggle to get on at time, but he creates havoc when on. He isn't the type of guy you want up with runners on, he is the type of guy you want to be a table setter. Billy leading off an inning optimizes his skills vs Billy up with a runner on base, especially if a force out is created.

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    REDREAD (04-22-2014)

  10. #276
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Do those optimization tools factor in Billy Hamilton speed and base running? Guy can turn ground balls to the 1st baseman into hits. HBP to runs, BB's to 3b's.

    I don't think moving Billy down in the order maximizes his value. He may struggle to get on at time, but he creates havoc when on. He isn't the type of guy you want up with runners on, he is the type of guy you want to be a table setter. Billy leading off an inning optimizes his skills vs Billy up with a runner on base, especially if a force out is created.
    Absolutely and well put.

  11. #277
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dubc47834 View Post
    What are these numbers? Looks like whatever numbers they are, they are from last year also....Choo???????
    While it's true that Choo is awesome, and we all love him, he is also on the very top of every chart that junkhead posts.

    It is what it is. It all comes back to Choo.

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  13. #278
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    to the "Redszone" lineup is only 20 base runners per year!
    20 more base runners for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce may lead to 10-15 runs (of those 20 extra times on base, a few will be hits and a few will come with another runner on and drive that guy in, then Votto will drive in some of that 20 times on in and of those 20 times, Votto gets on base 8 times to add another runner on). That is pretty significant.

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    wheels (04-22-2014)

  15. #279
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Those eight runs over the course of a season could mean a win or two. Those extra two, three wins mean a lot to a cuspy team like our Reds.
    The Reds scored 698 runs last year. Hard to say if 8 more runs hyptothetically last year would've made a difference or not.
    They say 10 runs is worth about 1 win on average.
    So the difference is really about .8 wins.

    Plus, those 8 runs are purely hypothetical, based on stats. It could be 10 more runs or zero runs.
    Also the possibility that you are reducing the number of "Billy" runs by moving him down in the lineup.
    The above analysis assumes Billy scores at the same rate as everyone else, which I don't think is true in reality.

    Why sacrifice Billy H's development as leadoff hitter for 8 more hypothetical runs? Sorry, but it's such a small difference,
    and theoretical, not worth making a major decision over.
    Now maybe in a playoff game, if Billy H has OBP 250 all year, then you move him down to #7.
    I can agree with that.. In the playoffs, you need to optimize everything possible.
    But over the course of the regular season, it just doesn't matter.
    Leake making a mistake and giving up that grand slam yesterday probably has a bigger impact on the season than whether Billy bats #1 or #7 (because the high probably is that's what cost us the game. There were other factors too, but that was the big blow).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  17. #280
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Probably the best thing you can do is google up one of the online lineup optimization tools. Even using some reasonable performance assumptions, the general "optimal" lineup would project to score around 4.3 to 4.4 Runs per game. That lineup would have Votto rather than Phillips in the leadoff slot BTW. The "worst" versions would project to score around 3.6 to 3.7 R/G. Over the course of a season, that's around 117 Runs due to the cumulative effect of adding PA over time for the optimal version coupled with the stacking of base-acquiition attributes.

    Now 117 Runs is an extreme case; optimized versus crap so to speak. But we can fraction that and understand that half that effect is worth @6 wins; one-tenth almost two wins. Lineups do matter but, of course, matter less the longer a team sticks with an out machine in the leadoff slot (see: Taveras, Wily or Patterson, Corey). Right now Price should just move the whole lineup up a slot; with Hamilton helping by falling to 9th (or 8th for the faint of heart).
    I asked the thread for their optimal lineup and did the work.
    If someone else wants to do an alternate analysis, they are welcome to.
    I don't like lineup simulators if they are simple random number generators.
    They just aren't realistic. We see things in baseball video games like the pitcher walking 7 guys in a row because the opposing lineup is full of high OBP guys. That just doesn't happen in real life.
    Lots of assumptions in simulators.

    Since this whole argument vs Billy H is OBP based, I think it's best to see how many base runners Billy leading off costs us.
    The answer is 28 (unless I am shown to the contrary)

    We can argue how many runs that means, but as a point of reference, last year the Reds had 1955 baserunners and scored 698 runs. That's a conversion rate of 35.7%.. So apply that to the 28 runners and you get 10 runs rounded up.. Still, not many.. 28 more guys on base out of 1955 (last year)..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  18. #281
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast


    Just treating this as an all things B Hamilton thread to throw this into.

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    Big Klu (04-22-2014), bigredmechanism (04-24-2014), dubc47834 (04-22-2014), REDREAD (04-22-2014)

  20. #282
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    20 more base runners for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce may lead to 10-15 runs (of those 20 extra times on base, a few will be hits and a few will come with another runner on and drive that guy in, then Votto will drive in some of that 20 times on in and of those 20 times, Votto gets on base 8 times to add another runner on). That is pretty significant.
    It might lead to 0,8, 10, 15, or 20 runs.. (The Reds converted at 35% last year, in another post I adjusted to 10)
    But we are also losing runs by moving Billy H out of the leadoff.
    That first run of the game last night. If Phillips had been hit by the pitch, and everything else was identical.. the Reds wouldn't have been leading 1-0.

    Sorry, but 10-15 hypothetical runs over a season is not worth stunting Billy H's growth.
    Billy H in the leadoff spot is not going to cost us a playoff spot.
    If we fail to make the playoffs, it's going to be our poor record in 1 run games or something like that.
    Heck, Hoover has already cost us 1 game vs the Mets and 2 vs the Pirates. The bullpen situation has already cost us more than what Billy H will cost us the entire year (if Billy H is actually costing us anything, he's already earned at least 2 runs out of the hypothetical 10 that he's costing us).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  21. #283
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    For the BHam havoc people, what OBP does he need to have to be an average lead off hitter?

    If the havoc thing makes up for OBP there still needs to be a break even point, right?

    In other words, is there a minimum for you to keep him leading off?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  22. #284
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    While it's true that Choo is awesome, and we all love him, he is also on the very top of every chart that junkhead posts.

    It is what it is. It all comes back to Choo.

    Yes, I know junkheads love affair with Choo. I just didn't know what all those numbers were. I eventually went to his link and figured out what they were...

  23. #285
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I asked the thread for their optimal lineup and did the work.
    If someone else wants to do an alternate analysis, they are welcome to.
    I don't like lineup simulators if they are simple random number generators.
    They just aren't realistic. We see things in baseball video games like the pitcher walking 7 guys in a row because the opposing lineup is full of high OBP guys. That just doesn't happen in real life.
    Lots of assumptions in simulators.

    Since this whole argument vs Billy H is OBP based, I think it's best to see how many base runners Billy leading off costs us.
    The answer is 28 (unless I am shown to the contrary)

    We can argue how many runs that means, but as a point of reference, last year the Reds had 1955 baserunners and scored 698 runs. That's a conversion rate of 35.7%.. So apply that to the 28 runners and you get 10 runs rounded up.. Still, not many.. 28 more guys on base out of 1955 (last year)..
    You're doing a "simulation" as well. You're just doing a much much worse job of it.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams


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