Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

[757690]

It is May 2,2014.

As of this morning, Billy Hamilton is on pace to be a 2 WAR player.....i.e. in his rookie campaign, as of May 2nd, Hamilton is on pace to be a major league average starting position player (playing a premium position).

He looks to grade out as a plus defender in CF (not gold glove caliber but second tier good) and a pretty bad bat who makes up offensive ground with base running.

None of these things are surprises to anyone. The question that remains is will he continue to get on base like he has over the last two weeks? I'm more comfortable predicting his defensive value than his offensive value going forward. Should be interesting to watch regardless of where the Reds are in the standings.

A big issue is his recent HR. It raised his production numbers greatly, without it, he's closer to replacement level overall.

The question is, can he hit more HR's, which he needs to do to keep up this level of production, or was that HR lucky hit that may not happen again thus year? Also, will that HR cause pitchers to pitch Hamilton differently? I guess we'll see.

[cincyinco]

I think he can hit a few HR a year. Not many, but I think he can definitely hit more than 1. He's no Alex Cole.

[Chuckie]

The one thing I know for sure: Placing a speedy out-machine in the leadoff spot is just a stupid old-school idea.

The plan is for Billy to be the Reds' leadoff hitter for perhaps the next decade. We're in the infantile stages of this plan. Obviously, the thought is that as he matures, he will be anything but an "out machine." Even during this season -- one month of baseball -- we've seen incremental improvement in his game. A year from now? I think he will be very dangerous as a leadoff hitter. 3-5 years from now? Look the heck out.

Yes, it's frustrating at times this year. But the 2014 Reds likely aren't going anywhere. I have no problem with Billy batting leadoff if in fact the club has a long-term plan that they are following. Truth be told, after one month, Billy is performing about like I thought he would. A lot of people overreacted after his 0-for-12 start. National journalists also had a knee-jerk reaction about a 23-year-old rookie. If he would have started fast and then had an 0-for-12 stretch late in April, it would have been no big deal. But because the 0-for-12 was at the beginning of the season, it was amplified.

Billy is right on track in his development, IMO. Get that OBP over .300 and he'll be effective (and he's close at .280). By next year, get it up to .330 and watch the fun begin.

[villain612]

The plan is for Billy to be the Reds' leadoff hitter for perhaps the next decade. We're in the infantile stages of this plan. Obviously, the thought is that as he matures, he will be anything but an "out machine." Even during this season -- one month of baseball -- we've seen incremental improvement in his game. A year from now? I think he will be very dangerous as a leadoff hitter. 3-5 years from now? Look the heck out.

Yes, it's frustrating at times this year. But the 2014 Reds likely aren't going anywhere. I have no problem with Billy batting leadoff if in fact the club has a long-term plan that they are following. Truth be told, after one month, Billy is performing about like I thought he would. A lot of people overreacted after his 0-for-12 start. National journalists also had a knee-jerk reaction about a 23-year-old rookie. If he would have started fast and then had an 0-for-12 stretch late in April, it would have been no big deal. But because the 0-for-12 was at the beginning of the season, it was amplified.

Billy is right on track in his development, IMO. Get that OBP over .300 and he'll be effective (and he's close at .280). By next year, get it up to .330 and watch the fun begin.

I pretty much agree with this.

The first week or two of the season was cringe-worthy for him at the plate but he has definitely been improving, and his numbers show it.

Billy Hamilton batting leadoff right now is as much to help the 2014 Reds as it is an investment in the future. If you want to argue that the Reds shouldn't be experimenting with their leadoff hitter position right now, then you could have a debate about that.

But I don't think it's just a stupid old school idea to have him leading off. If he can get on base, that's quite a dilemma for the pitcher: Do I focus on the fastest guy in the game on first base, or do I focus on where to pitch Joey Votto? That's putting the pitcher in between a rock and a hard place.

[villain612]

And by the way, Choo is hitting .325/.446/.525.
What if...?

7 years, $135 million and he's about to turn 32.

Context matters.

[kpresidente]

And by the way, Choo is hitting .325/.446/.525.
What if...?

What if Homer Bailey's money went to Choo instead? Starting to seem like we have several good arms in the minors in addition to Stephenson (Travieso and Lively...standard "it's early" disclaimer applies). Might end up being a choice we look back on with regret.

[757690]

And by the way, Choo is hitting .325/.446/.525.
What if...?

He's also injured... again.

[villain612]

What if Homer Bailey's money went to Choo instead? Starting to seem like we have several good arms in the minors in addition to Stephenson (Travasio and Lively...standard "it's early" disclaimer applies). Might end up being a choice we look back on with regret.

Homer Bailey is 4 years younger than Choo, and in contrast to those good arms in the minors, Bailey has proven himself at the Major League level. On both counts, Bailey is a much safer investment of that money.

[villain612]

Signing Choo.
Sometimes you need to take a gamble. Just look at the case of Holliday signing by Cardinals. That gamble has certainly paid off.
And there is also a fact that Choo is a relatively safe bet compared with other players as he is a high-obp player with good plate discipline who tends to age well.

When Holiday signed with the Cardinals, he was 2 years younger than Choo, and had proven a lot less succeptibility to injury.

Since 2005, Choo has only played 140+ games a year four times. You're sure he's gonna age well eh?

[757690]

What if Homer Bailey's money went to Choo instead? Starting to seem like we have several good arms in the minors in addition to Stephenson (Travieso and Lively...standard "it's early" disclaimer applies). Might end up being a choice we look back on with regret.

Personally, I thought not signing Choo to such a big contract was a smart move by the Reds. I also thought, and still think that signing Bailey to such a long term contract was not a smart move.

That said, the extra year and $35M for Choo might be the difference between being able to sign Cueto or Latos long term as well.

[757690]

The Pennant flags fly forever.

How many Pennants does Choo have again?

[wheels]

I think we'd better drop the subject.
What's gone and what's past help Should be past grief.

You're telling everyone to drop the Choo issue. I'm sorry, but that's kind of hilarious.

[Chuckie]

And by the way, Choo is hitting .325/.446/.525.
What if...?

What if the Reds had overpaid for him? We'd all be saying "That was really dumb" after Choo's steady decline begins in 2015.

[tomnuetten]

What if Homer Bailey's money went to Choo instead? Starting to seem like we have several good arms in the minors in addition to Stephenson (Travieso and Lively...standard "it's early" disclaimer applies). Might end up being a choice we look back on with regret.

it´s the same, we would still overpay for a guy over 30... choo´s contract would look good the next two years, after that it would get ugly with or without bailey

[757690]

What the heck are you talking about?

http://www.lonestarball.com/2014/5/4...3-rangers-loss

Choo is now hitting .337/.462/.530.

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/20...soreness.html/

Texas Rangers expect Shin-Soo Choo to miss no time with renewed ankle soreness