Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

[757690]

If you think Hamilton is going to sustain a .231 BABIP, raise your hand.

The only problem with that is that even if you raise his BABIP 100 points to .331, that would only mean 4 more hits, which should still make him a well below .700 OPS guy. He has a lot to work on.

[Red Raindog]

Also, side note about Hamilton picking up switch hitting. He did so back in 2009. He was bunting from the left side of the plate in his high school draft video. The Reds put it in effect after he was drafted and he started swinging from that side that year as well. He is still learning it, but it isn't as some have noted in this thread, something he picked up in Dayton or in Louisville.

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I checked. Batteries were dead. I switched them out.

Sidenote. I'm a robot.

I know when I started switch hitting I had lots more holes in my swing from the left side but more power - of course I never really fixed the holes

[mth123]

Does his defense do anything for you? I think he can help contribute in other ways than just at the plate. I understand the concerns with him especially leading off but just curious if you think the other parts of his game can help right now.

His defense is pretty good, but there are lots of defensive guys around who could do that without hitting and without wasting Hamilton's development. If defense is the concern, let Hamilton finish developing in AAA and pick-up somebody like Sam Fuld. Heck, some defensive minded OF in the system who doesn't really offer much upside would be fine. Ryan Lamarre comes to mind. Personally, I think the defense is good enough with Heisey that we can't justify a sub .600 OPS in CF in the sake of defense.

The good news is that I expect a .575 or so OPS from Hamilton. That allows for around a 100 point improvement from here.

[mth123]

If you think Hamilton is going to sustain a .231 BABIP, raise your hand.

Doesn't the whole "BABIP heads to the mean" theory assume that the players involved have major league caliber ability in the first place? When it comes to hitting the ball with enough authority for BABIP to do it's job, I'm not convinced Hamilton qualifies.

[tomnuetten]

Stephen Drew's career OPS: 777. Cozart's career OPS: 665. Drew's career OBP: .329. Cozart's career OBP: .282. And that ignores the downward trends for Cozart since his rookie year. You leverage Zack's appearances to maximize defensive value. Start him when Leake pitches. If 110 OPS points and a professional plate approach, plus significant pennant race and postseason experience, don't qualify as improvement, I guess such a thing doesn't exist at all.



Damn, I'm a baseball ignoramus. What a great solution. Just tell Phillips to get on base more. "Hey Brandon, would you mind getting on base more?" "Oh, crap, Skip, that's a great plan."

it was obviously a joke
if you listen to brandon phillips, his obp was bad because they said he has to drive the runs in..


stephen drew would be an upgrade offensively, but it wouldn´t be as big to justify the money and pick... if they want to improve there are cheaper and easier ways to do. drew is a downgrade defensively and a slight upgrade offensevily... a upgrade in (for example lf, 3rd, bench, cf etc.) should be easier and cheaper to find

[Chuckie]

April overreactions. Shocking.

Did anyone actually think Billy was going to come out and rake as a rookie? He somewhat struggled in Triple-A last year (although played well in the second half). I still like the element he brings to the Reds though. Often, speed is overrated in baseball, but Billy is next-level. He can change a game with a walk.

This is another reason I don't mind him taking a lot of pitches. In fact, that's exactly what I want him doing. He needs to be a guy who walks at a relatively high rate if he's going to be a successful leadoff hitter. I'd much rather him be a guy who takes too many pitches than a guy who waves at too many. Yes, you want to find that ideal balance -- and one day I think he will -- but right now I like that he's seeing a lot of pitches and trying to take walks. I think his offense will come around to a certain extent this year and then by next season he will really be a weapon.

[dougdirt]

April overreactions. Shocking.

Did anyone actually think Billy was going to come out and rake as a rookie? He somewhat struggled in Triple-A last year (although played well in the second half). I still like the element he brings to the Reds though. Often, speed is overrated in baseball, but Billy is next-level. He can change a game with a walk.

This is another reason I don't mind him taking a lot of pitches. In fact, that's exactly what I want him doing. He needs to be a guy who walks at a relatively high rate if he's going to be a successful leadoff hitter. I'd much rather him be a guy who takes too many pitches than a guy who waves at too many. Yes, you want to find that ideal balance -- and one day I think he will -- but right now I like that he's seeing a lot of pitches and trying to take walks. I think his offense will come around to a certain extent this year and then by next season he will really be a weapon.

There is a difference between raking and providing something offensively. I doubt anyone expected him to rake. I think a lot of people expected him to be able to hit the ball out of the infield more than once every 10 at bats.

[camisadelgolf]

You cannot assess players with anywhere near 100% accuracy based on their stats in April, even if you get into the deepest of sabermetrics. Talk to me when someone can tell me what's wrong with his swing/approach/etc.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Hamilton has probably never struggled like this before. As a result, he looks like he's pressing, and you just can't succeed in baseball that way.

[joshua]

You cannot assess players with anywhere near 100% accuracy based on their stats in April, even if you get into the deepest of sabermetrics. Talk to me when someone can tell me what's wrong with his swing/approach/etc.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Hamilton has probably never struggled like this before. As a result, he looks like he's pressing, and you just can't succeed in baseball that way.

Are you trying to tell me Simon won't win the Cy Young?

[dougdirt]

You cannot assess players with anywhere near 100% accuracy based on their stats in April, even if you get into the deepest of sabermetrics. Talk to me when someone can tell me what's wrong with his swing/approach/etc.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Hamilton has probably never struggled like this before. As a result, he looks like he's pressing, and you just can't succeed in baseball that way.

April in Dayton was pretty rough. July in the GCL was brutal. August wasn't much better.

[camisadelgolf]

RED ALERT
RED ALERT
Billy Hamilton is currently batting above .200.

[SteelSD]

Hamilton clearly needs to cut down on his K's. But that K rate is not one of a player who is a K machine, or overmatched, or doesn't belong in the majors, as has been suggested.

Then maybe you'll want to reply to those saying Hamilton is "overmatched" or "doesn't belong in the majors" and basing that thought solely off his K rate.

[Trajinous]

Hamilton's avg is still higher than Bruce....only April folks.

[mth123]

Hamilton's avg is still higher than Bruce....only April folks.

It's not about April. He hasn't hit since AA. I'm a huge doubter and it has nothing to do with what he's done in 3 weeks in April. It has everything to do with the fact that he couldn't hit when promoted to the higher level and was then promoted again in spite of it. Watching him flail away is reinforcing what his AAA numbers are showing.

He had 4 hits today. I still contend that any random minor leaguer can be given an every day job in the big leagues and have a good day every 10 to 15 games or so. He starts getting on base regularly and I'll reconsider my opinion, but characterizing things as being based on 3 weeks in April is incorrect. He was a suspect going into the off-season and had things been handled properly, somebody else would have been brought in as a stopgap CF and Hamilton would have entered Spring Training with zero chance at a big league job. A couple good months in AAA would get him a look and strengthen the roster by making the stopgap a bench player.

[SteelSD]

This is another reason I don't mind him taking a lot of pitches. In fact, that's exactly what I want him doing. He needs to be a guy who walks at a relatively high rate if he's going to be a successful leadoff hitter. I'd much rather him be a guy who takes too many pitches than a guy who waves at too many. Yes, you want to find that ideal balance -- and one day I think he will -- but right now I like that he's seeing a lot of pitches and trying to take walks.

Among Reds starting position players, only the BB-inept Zach Cozart has seen fewer pitches per PA than Billy Hamilton. Over his career, Cozart has seen 3.70 P/PA. Coming into today's game, Hamilton has seen only 3.37 P/PA. Hamilton hasn't been out there working counts so far this year and unless he significantly improves that P/PA rate, he projects to walk less than 40 times this year. That would be, in a word, terrible.