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Thread: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

  1. #76
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie View Post
    This is another reason I don't mind him taking a lot of pitches. In fact, that's exactly what I want him doing. He needs to be a guy who walks at a relatively high rate if he's going to be a successful leadoff hitter. I'd much rather him be a guy who takes too many pitches than a guy who waves at too many. Yes, you want to find that ideal balance -- and one day I think he will -- but right now I like that he's seeing a lot of pitches and trying to take walks.
    Among Reds starting position players, only the BB-inept Zach Cozart has seen fewer pitches per PA than Billy Hamilton. Over his career, Cozart has seen 3.70 P/PA. Coming into today's game, Hamilton has seen only 3.37 P/PA. Hamilton hasn't been out there working counts so far this year and unless he significantly improves that P/PA rate, he projects to walk less than 40 times this year. That would be, in a word, terrible.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #77
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Among Reds starting position players, only the BB-inept Zach Cozart has seen fewer pitches per PA than Billy Hamilton. Over his career, Cozart has seen 3.70 P/PA. Coming into today's game, Hamilton has seen only 3.37 P/PA. Hamilton hasn't been out there working counts so far this year and unless he significantly improves that P/PA rate, he projects to walk less than 40 times this year. That would be, in a word, terrible.
    I'm not trying to make excuses for the low OBP, but wouldn't bunt attempts early on in counts bring that number down. So far it looks like he's taken a fair amount of borderline pitches that have gone against him. Really not concerned about him bunting, it doesn't concern me. He's not exchanging power for a bunt, and he's likely to get on if he lays a good bunt down. Hell it might actually add power if Votto can crush the fastballs that are coming his way with Hamilton on. Hamilton won't be as bad as he had been so far all year. I don't like the low OBP so far, but it'll go up. As far as his ops, I could care less about anything but the OBP part of that with Billy.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Among Reds starting position players, only the BB-inept Zach Cozart has seen fewer pitches per PA than Billy Hamilton. Over his career, Cozart has seen 3.70 P/PA. Coming into today's game, Hamilton has seen only 3.37 P/PA. Hamilton hasn't been out there working counts so far this year and unless he significantly improves that P/PA rate, he projects to walk less than 40 times this year. That would be, in a word, terrible.
    I wonder how many P/PA he sees when not bunting. That has to drag that rate down substantially.

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    Old school 1983 (04-19-2014)

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He had 4 hits today. I still contend that any random minor leaguer can be given an every day job in the big leagues and have a good day every 10 to 15 games or so. He starts getting on base regularly and I'll reconsider my opinion, but characterizing things as being based on 3 weeks in April is incorrect. He was a suspect going into the off-season and had things been handled properly, somebody else would have been brought in as a stopgap CF and Hamilton would have entered Spring Training with zero chance at a big league job. A couple good months in AAA would get him a look and strengthen the roster by making the stopgap a bench player.
    I argue that AAA would be a waste of time. Hamilton is so special on the base paths, it counter-balances his below average hitting numbers. He's also only 23 years old. He's has plenty to grow but him starting everyday will outproduce Heisey playing everyday, imo.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    I argue that AAA would be a waste of time. Hamilton is so special on the base paths, it counter-balances his below average hitting numbers. He's also only 23 years old. He's has plenty to grow but him starting everyday will outproduce Heisey playing everyday, imo.
    Agree, other than I would have him split time with Heisey right now, down further in the order to take some pressure off of him, and once he's outplaying Heisey, then play him more often. Heisey's swinging a hot bat right now, and this team needs to win games. BHam had a nice game today.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Agree!

  9. #82
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Hamilton, since coming back from his finger injury, has hit .272 with a .654 OPS. Not that good, but about where I thought he'd be if starting everyday.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    I wonder how many P/PA he sees when not bunting. That has to drag that rate down substantially.
    As I think there have been only about 8 bunt attempts for him, I'm sure you can find that data by going through the game logs. I wouldn't suggest doing that because it doesn't matter. for those attempts, Hamilton is choosing to end the PA without working the count. He owns the results for that. It'd be different if he walked up to the plate and was hit by the first pitch thrown to him 8 times. That behavior does suppress strikeout rate as well because, by bunting, he's removing that as an Out type for himself by putting the ball in play.

    Look, here's what folks don't really seem to realize about Hamilton's game...

    Let's say our goal for Hamilton is for him to post a .300 OBP this season. He shouldn't be hitting leadoff if that's our goal, but really that's beside the point. We can reasonably project a K rate of about 22-25% for him and an IsoD of 0.050 (that's me being a bit generous, btw). That means his target BA needs to be .250 to pull off a .300 OBP. Assuming a 22% K rate, that means he'll likely need a .320 BABIP to get that .250 BA as he has no HR power component to speak of to augment his batting average. To post something for a leadoff hitter that wouldn't have folks pulling their hair out- say, an OBP around .320- he'd need to have some way to push his BABIP up to @.340 and so on and so forth.

    The good news is that those BABIP numbers aren't unheard of. There were 48 MLB batting title qualifiers who put up BABIP's at that or higher last season. The problem is that none of them did it while posting LD rates below 20% while also posting FB rates above 40%; which is what Hamilton is doing now.

    Can Hamilton improve to produce a BABIP that high? Possibly. I hear he's very fast, after all. But has he produced the kind of ball-in-play thus far that would be required to do it? No. He's producing too many fly balls, too few ground balls and line drives, and he hasn't been good enough at beating out his bunt attempts. He doesn't walk enough to produce a higher IsoD. Not a lot to like so far and it's resulted in him failing poorly. If he were failing "well" (higher LD%, more ground balls, etc.), I'd have a completely different take on his numbers right now. But he's not, so I don't.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    There's another aspect we haven't brought up with Hamilton. His ability to affect the pitcher. The game against Pirate's Liriano is a great example of Hamilton's ability, something only a few player can do. Once on base, Liriano threw multiple breaking balls in the dirt since he was trying to hold Hamilton. This improves Votto's game when Hamilton's on base. The same thing happened again today against the Cubs. Hamilton's awful start has skewed his numbers and it's such a small sample size, I think they are irrelevant at this point.

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    REDREAD (04-21-2014)

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    He hasn't even had 70 at-bats in the majors yet. To make any kind of judgment at this point can't have any validity as far as I'm concerned.

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    REDREAD (04-21-2014)

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    There's another aspect we haven't brought up with Hamilton. His ability to affect the pitcher. The game against Pirate's Liriano is a great example of Hamilton's ability, something only a few player can do. Once on base, Liriano threw multiple breaking balls in the dirt since he was trying to hold Hamilton. This improves Votto's game when Hamilton's on base. The same thing happened again today against the Cubs. Hamilton's awful start has skewed his numbers and it's such a small sample size, I think they are irrelevant at this point.
    You don't throw any breaking balls if you are worried about Hamilton taking a base.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You don't throw any breaking balls if you are worried about Hamilton taking a base.
    I agree you don't throw a breaking ball to hold a runner but Liriano was quoted after the game saying that he was focusing too much on the runner when he threw slider after slider in the dirt to Votto.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    I agree you don't throw a breaking ball to hold a runner but Liriano was quoted after the game saying that he was focusing too much on the runner when he threw slider after slider in the dirt to Votto.
    Sure. That's on him though. If he was so worried about the runner stealing, he messed up by throwing breaking balls. If you are so worried about a runner, breaking balls are a terrible idea. It's just confusing on his part. Worry about the runner, then throw breaking balls. You can get away with that if Jay Bruce is on first. But not Hamilton. If you knew you were throwing breaking balls, why worry so much about holding him on? We are getting off topic some, but the logic there doesn't make much sense from Liriano. He should have thought it through some more.

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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    I argue that AAA would be a waste of time. Hamilton is so special on the base paths, it counter-balances his below average hitting numbers. He's also only 23 years old. He's has plenty to grow but him starting everyday will outproduce Heisey playing everyday, imo.
    I'd argue:

    1. His running the bases won't make up for his inability to get on base. Period. The only way that works is if he's a pinch rinner and lets somebody else do the getting on base part.

    2. He's only 23 is precisely the reason another year or so in AAA wouldn't be a waste of time. He still has stuff to learn down there. It's not like he dominated. Heck, he wasn't even very good. His speed isn't going to disappear. The Reds have 6 years of control. Another year at AAA would make him eligible for free agency (and likely out of the Reds price range) by the time he's 30. He'll still be fast by then and likely too expensive to be worth a long term deal.

    I just don't see what the rush is. Having him on the big league team because his speed is "wasted" in AAA seems like poor logic to me. Having him make a bunch of outs in the big leagues because he can run fast is the logic I'm not seeing.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  21. #90
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    Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

    Quote Originally Posted by markymark69 View Post
    He hasn't even had 70 at-bats in the majors yet. To make any kind of judgment at this point can't have any validity as far as I'm concerned.
    Why do we need major league at bats to make a judgment? The judgment should be based on him being a failure at AAA and not really earning a job in the big leagues by virtue of his play. Had the team handed the lead-off spot to some other mid .600s OPS minor leaguer the board would be up in arms. Newsflash, occasional displays of impressive speed don't make up for it.

    Billy Hamilton will entertain with his speed on occasion and create some runs that wouldn't have otherwise been produced, but it won't make up for making a ton of outs. I agree that Heisey isn't the answer against RHP, but he should be in CF now against LHP. When Schumaker returns, he'd probably be a better choice against RHP unless Hamilton flips a switch and becomes something more than he was in AAA or so far this year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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