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Thread: Enough of Zach Cozart?

  1. #76
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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by SirFelixCat View Post
    I guess I'm one of the only ones that are fine w/ a mostly all-glove stud of a SS who can occasionally provide some pop out of the 8-hole.
    I'm with you on this. Trading for a SS IMO is a waste of assets unless you're getting a stud or a top prospect. Upgrades at 3b and LF are more plentiful and wouldnt cost as much, or get the Reds a bigger return on their costs than a trade for a SS would bring.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    OMG, it's almost like players will eventually regress/ingress to their level given a larger sample size.
    Question is what that level will be in the future. In the case of Stubbs, waiting for him to return to a 0.770 OPS was obviously the wrong move.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Actually, it would be a "big average".
    Actually not.

    The average shortstop OBP in Major League Baseball last year was .308. In the NL, .310, in the AL .306. This is as per Fangraphs and includes starters and bench warmers. Of seventeen MLB shortstops with a qualified number of PAs, last year, there were eleven with OBPs above .300. As per ESPN. (Cozart was "qualified" and his OBP was .284.)

    So in 2013, a below .300 OBP was below average, even for shortstops.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-20-2014 at 09:04 PM.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Actually not.

    The average shortstop OBP in Major League Baseball last year was .308. In the NL, .310, in the AL .306. This is as per Fangraphs and includes starters and bench warmers. Of seventeen MLB shortstops with a qualified number of PAs, last year, there were eleven with OBPs above .300. As per ESPN.

    So in 2013, a below .300 OBP was below average, even for shortstops.
    I wasn't looking at OBA, instead I was looking at the entire package of the SS, which is actually relevant.

    I player can be below average in one segment of a players attributes, and still be an overall average or even above average player.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I wasn't looking at OBA, instead I was looking at the entire package of the SS, which is actually relevant.

    I player can be below average in one segment of a players attributes, and still be an overall average or even above average player.

    That's true, although my comment was about OBP.

    In terms of overall attributes, it's an interesting discussion as to when an attribute compensates for a deficit.

    My position is that in an NL lineup, if a position player can't OBP .300, his status as a regular player is suspect. One can argue that power or defense or speed can compensate. My feeling is that someone who (percentage wise) makes too many outs on a regular, long-term basis has a difficult time compensating.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    That's true, although my comment was about OBP.

    In terms of overall attributes, it's an interesting discussion as to when an attribute compensates for a deficit.

    My position is that in an NL lineup, if a position player can't OBP .300, his status as a regular player is suspect. One can argue that power or defense or speed can compensate. My feeling is that someone who (percentage wise) makes too many outs on a regular, long-term basis has a difficult time compensating.
    Why .300 OBP as the cut off? It's a nice round number, but what makes you think that a guy with an .300 OBP deserves to start but a guy with .280 OPB doesn't? That amounts to around 10 more times on base for the season, or around 5 runs, or half a win! all in a vacuum. Why is .300 the magic cut off point?
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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Why .300 OBP as the cut off? It's a nice round number, but what makes you think that a guy with an .300 OBP deserves to start but a guy with .280 OPB doesn't? That amounts to around 10 more times on base for the season, or around 5 runs, or half a win! all in a vacuum. Why is .300 the magic cut off point?
    You have to distinguish between a desirable hitter and a barely acceptable hitter. A .300 OBP man, except in rare circumstances, is barely acceptable to me. It's a lower limit IMO.

    You are now asking me to reduce my lower limit. I say no. Frankly, I think it's pretty generous to accept a .300 OBP man (and I'd only do so grudgingly).

    The average OBP in the major leagues for non-pitchers (including backups) was .322. Of players with a qualified number of at bats, 9 of 204 OBP'd .281 or lower. You are asking me to accept, as a starter, a player among the bottom nine qualifiers in the league in OBP (since you posit .280).

    Put another way, a .280 OBP man makes an out 72% of the time. That's simply unacceptable.

    And as a starter, a player like Cozart applies this 72% out rate to, say, 600 PAs. So he will make 432 outs at .280. I think that's too many outs.

    Now, it's true, all limits are somewhat arbitrary. At .300 the guy makes 420 outs, which is a tad better, but not much. But again that 420 out man is at the lowest limit and I'd try for better. Not for worse.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-20-2014 at 10:16 PM.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    I'd like to know the OBP of each starter on each team that was over .500 last season and compare how many 'sub-par' OBP players each team had.


    Anyone want to grab that or tell me how?

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by SirFelixCat View Post
    I'd like to know the OBP of each starter on each team that was over .500 last season and compare how many 'sub-par' OBP players each team had.


    Anyone want to grab that or tell me how?
    Simple enough. Go to Fangraphs, use the dashboard for hitting, plug in each team's name individually, 2013, non-pitchers.

    Then you have to decide who is a "starter."

    If you chose 400 PAs or more and picked the DBacks, the lowest OBP would be Miguel Montero at .318.

    But other teams have different profiles, I'm sure.

    Several other websites would also have that information, they all sort by team. You just have to go through the teams one by one.

    Of course, identifying bad OBPs on over .500 teams is one step. But of starters with low OBPs in 2013, were they retained as starters for 2014?
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-20-2014 at 11:06 PM.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    I'm no huge fan of Cozart, but:

    1) He will do better than he has so far (though he might be worse than his previous two seasons, could be on the Drew Stubbs career arc).

    2) It's not like Ruben Gotay is coming up to take his job. So he's the SS until the Reds acquire someone from outside the organization.

    3) The first reasonable opportunity to upgrade Cozart might be next winter. We'll see what's available in the summer window, but a move for a SS would be, IMO, improbable.
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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm no huge fan of Cozart, but:

    1) He will do better than he has so far (though he might be worse than his previous two seasons, could be on the Drew Stubbs career arc).

    2) It's not like Ruben Gotay is coming up to take his job. So he's the SS until the Reds acquire someone from outside the organization.

    3) The first reasonable opportunity to upgrade Cozart might be next winter. We'll see what's available in the summer window, but a move for a SS would be, IMO, improbable.
    Agree. And by the way, I'm a Cozart fan, I love his defense. He's my kind of defensive shortstop. Steady as they come. Low error man.

    Wish the hitting coaches would successfully work with him on patience at the plate.

    His advantages over Stubbs is that he's a middle infielder and less is expected offensively. He doesn't strike out nearly as much as Stubbs.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    That's true, although my comment was about OBP.

    In terms of overall attributes, it's an interesting discussion as to when an attribute compensates for a deficit.

    My position is that in an NL lineup, if a position player can't OBP .300, his status as a regular player is suspect. One can argue that power or defense or speed can compensate. My feeling is that someone who (percentage wise) makes too many outs on a regular, long-term basis has a difficult time compensating.
    It's pretty silly to have an arbitrary minimum on any one attribute, as other above average attributes can make up for it.

    Just because a player a player has an OBA below .300 does not make him automatically a non-regular, especially at a defence premium position.

    For example, Simmons had an OBA of .296 last year, but I know that Atlanta was pretty satisfied with his 4.6-6.7 WAR last year (depending on what website you use).

    HIs elite defence at a premium position makes him an excellent SS notwithstanding a below .300 OBA.

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  21. #88
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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Put me in the camp that would love to see Zach OBP higher (as well as every other Red) but will be very happy (albeit at times very frustrated) if he puts up numbers even slightly better than last year. He was trending up at year's end, I could see a slight uptick in 2014 as a reasonable outcome.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It's pretty silly to have an arbitrary minimum on any one attribute, as other above average attributes can make up for it.

    Just because a player a player has an OBA below .300 does not make him automatically a non-regular, especially at a defence premium position.

    For example, Simmons had an OBA of .296 last year, but I know that Atlanta was pretty satisfied with his 4.6-6.7 WAR last year (depending on what website you use).

    HIs elite defence at a premium position makes him an excellent SS notwithstanding a below .300 OBA.
    Well, I wouldn't trade a rookie SS because he fell four points below .300 one time. My view, as I said, is that a player who is below .300 OBP on a regular, long-term basis is suspect as a starter. I would only keep starting such a player in rare cases.

    Pedro Alvarez, a lifetime .305 OBP player, fell below .300 last year. He also led the NL in homers. A league home run leader has pretty rare ability and I certainly wouldn't trade him because of one blip in the OBP department. Simmons is the best fielder in the NL, I think he also might qualify as a rare exception, even if he continues to hit slightly below .300 OBP long term.

    But the test has to be very strict. Because otherwise your lineup will lack the basic on base ability to have an acceptable offense.

    Cozart? It's up to the individual GM to decide, but I would have a problem if he continues hitting .284 OBP again this year. He's a very good defender but I'm not sure he is the rare case. Don't know that you live with that kind of OBP performance year in and year out in order to retain Cozart's other skills.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2014 at 01:33 PM.

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    Re: Enough of Zach Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    Ummm.... Davey was NOT a terrible hitter with the exception of 1970-72 and 1988. He was Cozart in 1983-84. He was the best hitting SS in baseball and a good at worst average offensive player from 1973-1982.

    Where do you get terrible?
    Dave Concepcion Batting Stats for Years 1973 to 1982, he averaged .282/.334/.389, GREAT FOR A SS OF HIS ERA. He wasn't a power hitter but he didn't have to be.

    I totally agree with with your post.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.


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