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Thread: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Let's play along with the notion that the Reds are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. They are 5 1/2 behind in the division and 3.5 out in the Wild Card. they have a number of games left with their chief playoff competitors. They have 3 series left with St. Louis, 1 with Atlanta, 2 each with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, and this current one plus another with the Marlins of Miami, Florida. Before they get into the meat of the series with the division rivals they have a potentially soft section of the schedule.* This period should end around the time Phillips comes back.

    Per Walt: " We still are within reach. We need to definitely step up here the next couple of weeks. We can't just wait for Brandon and Joey to come back. We've got to try to get back on a run." http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cin/...&vkey=news_cin

    For the Reds to be in a position to have a shot once they hit that competitive last six weeks, they need to reverse the fall and get a bit over .500. Here are their next 16 games:

    Code:
    Fri, Aug 1	@Miami		Latos (2-3)  	Cosart (9-7)	
    Sat, Aug 2	@Miami		Bailey (8-5)  	Eovaldi (5-6)	
    Sun, Aug 3	@Miami		Leake (8-9)	Alvarez (8-5)
    	
    Mon, Aug 4	@Cleveland	Simon (12-6)	Kluber (11-6)	
    Tue, Aug 5	@Cleveland	Cueto (12-6)	McAllister (3-6)	
    
    Wed, Aug 6	vs Cleveland	Latos (2-3)	Salazar (3-4)	
    Thu, Aug 7      vs Cleveland	Bailey (8-5) 	House (1-2)
    	
    Fri, Aug 8      vs Miami	Leake (8-9)  	Eovaldi (5-6)	
    Sat, Aug 9      vs Miami	Simon (12-6)	Alvarez (8-5)	
    Sun, Aug 10     vs Miami	Cueto (12-6)	Hand (2-3)
    
    Tue, Aug 12     vs Boston	Latos (2-3)	 	
    Wed, Aug 13     vs Boston	Bailey (8-5)	 
    	
    Thu, Aug 14     @ Colorado	Leake (8-9)	De La Rosa (11-6)	
    Fri, Aug 15	@ Colorado 
    Sat, Aug 16	@ Colorado	 	 	
    Sun, Aug 17     @ Colorado
    So looking at what may be realistic here. Reds take 2 of 3 remaining with the Marlins, lose to Klubner but take 2 of 3 of the rest with Indians, take 2 of 3 home with Miami, split with Boston and then take 3 of 4 with Colorado. That would have them go 10 and 6 over the 16. This would get them to 4 over heading into St. Louis for 3 starting on the 18th. Worse than that is certainly possible but if that happens it would be nearly impossible to crawl of out the hole. I could see the Reds taking 3 of 4 vs the Indians and sweeping Boston due to the matchups with Cleveland and the sell off in Boston. I could see them also losing all 7 because those are AL teams and the Reds just don't do well. I see the odds of beating Klubner are worse than the odds of Klubner getting a complete game in less than 85 pitches.

    *This soft section started with the Diamondback series but i am not here to talk about the past.

    What say you on what is possible and necessary?
    Last edited by klw; 08-01-2014 at 11:10 AM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Code:
    Fri, Aug 1	@Miami		Reds win 5-2.
    Sat, Aug 2	@Miami		Bailey (8-5)  	Eovaldi (5-6)	
    Sun, Aug 3	@Miami		Leake (8-9)	Alvarez (8-5)
    	
    Mon, Aug 4	@Cleveland	Simon (12-6)	Kluber (11-6)	
    Tue, Aug 5	@Cleveland	Cueto (12-6)	McAllister (3-6)	
    
    Wed, Aug 6	vs Cleveland	Latos (2-3)	Salazar (3-4)	
    Thu, Aug 7      vs Cleveland	Bailey (8-5) 	House (1-2)
    	
    Fri, Aug 8      vs Miami	Leake (8-9)  	Eovaldi (5-6)	
    Sat, Aug 9      vs Miami	Simon (12-6)	Alvarez (8-5)	
    Sun, Aug 10     vs Miami	Cueto (12-6)	Hand (2-3)
    
    Tue, Aug 12     vs Boston	Latos (2-3)	 	
    Wed, Aug 13     vs Boston	Bailey (8-5)	 
    	
    Thu, Aug 14     @ Colorado	Leake (8-9)	De La Rosa (11-6)	
    Fri, Aug 15	@ Colorado 
    Sat, Aug 16	@ Colorado	 	 	
    Sun, Aug 17     @ Colorado

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Well, the first 2 are in the bag....leaving 14, of which they will win.......9.

    Gain 1.5 games in WC, 3 games in Central. Life is good....two weeks closer to getting Votto and Phillips back.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    I'm not sure Alvarez is starting Sunday.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Per Walt: " We still are within reach. We need to definitely step up here the next couple of weeks. We can't just wait for Brandon and Joey to come back. We've got to try to get back on a run." http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cin/...&vkey=news_cin
    If this team is in fact still in it, sure would've been nice if someone had somehow stepped up at the deadline.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    I don't see this as a particularly soft spot in the schedule. Too many AL games, and games against good offenses like Colorado almost never favor the Reds.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'm not sure Alvarez is starting Sunday.
    Correct, Justin Turner is going for Miami.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Gotta be honest, didn't realize the Reds were that close to being within striking distance as I hadn't checked the standings in two weeks. Glad they didn't sell off. I think they can get back into the race.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Code:
    Fri, Aug 1	@Miami		Reds win 5-2.
    Sat, Aug 2	@Miami	        Reds Lose 1-2	
    Sun, Aug 3	@Miami		Leake (8-9)	Turner
    	
    Mon, Aug 4	@Cleveland	Simon (12-6)	Kluber (11-6)	
    Tue, Aug 5	@Cleveland	Cueto (12-6)	McAllister (3-6)	
    
    Wed, Aug 6	vs Cleveland	Latos (2-3)	Salazar (3-4)	
    Thu, Aug 7      vs Cleveland	Bailey (8-5) 	House (1-2)
    	
    Fri, Aug 8      vs Miami	Leake (8-9)  	Eovaldi (5-6)	
    Sat, Aug 9      vs Miami	Simon (12-6)	Alvarez (8-5)	
    Sun, Aug 10     vs Miami	Cueto (12-6)	Hand (2-3)
    
    Tue, Aug 12     vs Boston	Latos (2-3)	 	
    Wed, Aug 13     vs Boston	Bailey (8-5)	 
    	
    Thu, Aug 14     @ Colorado	Leake (8-9)	De La Rosa (11-6)	
    Fri, Aug 15	@ Colorado 
    Sat, Aug 16	@ Colorado	 	 	
    Sun, Aug 17     @ Colorado
    Last edited by klw; 08-03-2014 at 09:10 AM.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Phillips is back in late August or mid August at best and Votto....who knows. So we are to believe that the reds are playing the soft part of their schedule, while I believe that the other teams are looking at the Reds and seeing a soft part of their schedule. There is nothing that this team has shown since the AS Break that they are capable of playing any better than .500 baseball the rest of the year without more outside help or even any possible options at AAA. I am sure those teams are looking at Jack H, Skip, Cozart and Heisey playing on a semi to regular basis and thinking they have a good chance to hold the Reds to 1-2 runs in every game.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    Phillips is back in late August or mid August at best and Votto....who knows. So we are to believe that the reds are playing the soft part of their schedule, while I believe that the other teams are looking at the Reds and seeing a soft part of their schedule. There is nothing that this team has shown since the AS Break that they are capable of playing any better than .500 baseball the rest of the year without more outside help or even any possible options at AAA. I am sure those teams are looking at Jack H, Skip, Cozart and Heisey playing on a semi to regular basis and thinking they have a good chance to hold the Reds to 1-2 runs in every game.
    It's a shame, because this was the time for the Reds to make a move.

    But this lineup without both Votto and Phillips is much like then 1982-3 lineups. Seriously, if the Reds had to play the whole,season without. Phillips and Votto, and with the replacements they currently have I doubt they could win 70 games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It's a shame, because this was the time for the Reds to make a move.

    But this lineup without both Votto and Phillips is much like then 1982-3 lineups. Seriously, if the Reds had to play the whole,season without. Phillips and Votto, and with the replacements they currently have I doubt they could win 70 games.


    I am OK with the reality of things. Nothing you can do about the injuries. We can all see that, the on the fence fly by night fans can see that. Don't try to sell me on what this team could still do without any help to do it.

    I am still going to watch and hope for the best. If I did not leave during most of 2000 or 1982-84... I am not going to leave now.

    IF they start winning somehow or by the old "stranger things have happened" or when the dead cat bounce starts... people can tell me I told you so then.

  18. #13
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    I think the Reds need to claw to 3 or 4 games above .500 by the end of August to have a shot in September.

    If the Todd Frazier, Billy Hamilton, and Devin Mesoraco from June show up, then the Reds have a shot down the stetch.

    If their July counterparts show up, the party will be over before Phillips and Votto come back.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Garza and McCutchen both left their games today with injuries. Oblique for Garza and side pain (probably oblique) for McCutchen. Things could get interesting really quick if those players are out for a couple weeks.

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    Re: It is Moving Time- 2014 edition- part 1

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    Garza and McCutchen both left their games today with injuries. Oblique for Garza and side pain (probably oblique) for McCutchen. Things could get interesting really quick if those players are out for a couple weeks.
    I've said this in many other threads. 86 wins, wins this division. Brewers are on pace for 88 wins, and slipping fast. Money also have t played the west coast yet.

    Reds would have to play .588 ball to get to 86 wins. I'm don't think they have it in them, without Phillips and Votto for most of them.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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