Cueto, [Heisey and/or Ludwick] and two or three minor leaguers for Puig and fodder

[RedTeamGo!]

I do not think Josh Hamilton is a good example. He is about one of the most unique ballplayers ever, and he was not a "stud" when they traded him, he only had 90 games played in 2007, and he was fresh off of rehab for HEROIN ADDICTION. He was an injury prone heroin addict (and yes...current heroin addict and will be until the day he dies) that has to have a babysitter follow him around wherever he goes to keep him out of trouble. Josh Hamilton was great after the trade, and it was obviously a big mistake by the Reds, but they desperately needed pitching and he was their best chip. The Reds are desperate again, but it is not for an outfielder, as other than pitching outfield is where the organization is the deepest. If they are going to make a realistic trade they need to trade for middle infielders.

A team like the Dodgers is not desperate for anything, so trading Puig makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, which is why I don't understand the point of this. You have said the package YOU proposed is not good enough to acquire a player like Puig, so basically you are just saying "These reds players are not good enough to get Puig." Yippee.

The whole "prospects are nothing until they become major leaguers" argument is so tired. Guess what Puig was a year ago at this time? A prospect. Man, the Dodgers should have traded that lottery ticket while they had the chance. Puig has been really good, but the Dodgers have no motivation in the slightest to trade him, I will ask again...please provide a realistic package from any team that could get Puig.

[RedTeamGo!]

dp

[Don Votto]

The whole "prospects are nothing until they become major leaguers" argument is so tired.

But a true one, nonetheless...

Curious, you are not the type of fan that either holds the belief that every top minor league prospect in the Reds organization is going to be a superstar, and cannot ever be overvalued, are you? Not that I am saying Stephenson, Lively, Winkler, Ervin et al. are overvalued, but you are not THAT guy that has no trade clauses on prospects, are you?

Originally, the crux of my whole thought point was in response to what Doc Rogers was talking about post-game one day, when he was saying... trade Cueto for a "Matt-kemp LIKE" player--and my thought process to that was... that is a stupid trade. The Reds cannot afford someone like Kemp--if they could afford a 20 million outfielder, Choo would be with the club.

So... I began looking through rosters of young players.... and PONDERING whether or not they could be had--and if they could... what would it take to get them off of their mark.

Because Cueto would be too much for Kemp, Either, or Crawford. I would imagine that Kemp/Either or Crawford could be had by the Reds (or any other team) for some prospect(s) [and not an ace pitcher] and the level of the prospect(s) would depend on how much they Reds or any other team would be willing to accept in financial terms.

But, that is not the player I would want. I would want Puig, Goldschmidt, Trout, Harper, etc. I don't want Josh Donaldson. Or Lowrie...

So, again... what would be the ultimate KINGS RANSOM for one of those players?

Now, in July, when this club is 10 games out, I would consider trading Chapman, Cueto, or Jay Bruce for some high value prospects. And they would have to be high value--something like...

Betts and Cecchini from Boston would satisfy me.

[RedTeamGo!]

You keep saying what you "want" but you don't give an example of a package that could get it done.

Of course I am not "that type of fan." But, that doesn't mean I don't see value in prospects, and it also doesn't mean I would welcome trading away the farm for one player. How'd that work when we got Griffey, by the way? Oh? It set the franchise back for a decade?

I wouldn't give much up at all for Harper, that guy is made of glass and likes running into walls.

I wouldn't give up much for Goldshmidt, he has no place to play on the Reds. Before you go into how much better Goldshmidt is than Votto - it has nothing to do with your perceived value and the fact Votto is not moving off of first base. Even if he could play LF 5 years ago, he can't now.

Trout isn't even worth talking about.

For Puig I would trade Cueto, Lorenzen, and YRod. When the Dodgers say no, ok, have a nice day.

[Don Votto]

Of course I am not "that type of fan." But, that doesn't mean I don't see value in prospects, and it also doesn't mean I would welcome trading away the farm for one player. How'd that work when we got Griffey, by the way? Oh? It set the franchise back for a decade?

Yeah, Gookie Dawkins ***EDIT Antonio Perez ****, Brett Tomko, and Mike Cameron CRUSHED it. Such impactful major leaguers. EDIT***(Basically.. Cameron for Griffey... and don't get me wrong, Cameron had a nice career, but Griffey at age 30 vs Cameron. You would be high if you did not do that trade)***

The deal where Bowden screwed up was Konerko for Cameron--but we got to keep a nice guy at first base for a few years.

I wouldn't give much up at all for Harper, that guy is made of glass and likes running into walls.

So, a 21-year-old year old phenom, you are passing on because he plays balls out. Umm.. Ok.

I wouldn't give up much for Goldschmidt, he has no place to play on the Reds. Before you go into how much better Goldschmidt is than Votto - it has nothing to do with your perceived value and the fact Votto is not moving off of first base. Even if he could play LF 5 years ago, he can't now.

I agree with you on this, but damn it would be nice to have some right handed power in the line-up.

For Puig I would trade Cueto, Lorenzen, and YRod. When the Dodgers say no, ok, have a nice day.

LOLOLOL that's an awesome trade though. I mean come on... Why would they not do that one? An ace, a young AA prospect that... well, yeah... we'll see how that turns out, and Lorenzen, an older second year pro who, they're not sure what they are going to do with. LOLOLOLOL That's an awesome deal, I can't imagine why the Dodgers would say no to that.

I think to get a deal done for Puig--the following would HAVE to be involved (and one I would consider, depending on parts the Reds would get back)
A healthy Cueto.
A healthy Chapman
TOP hitting prospect or TOP pitching prospect
Mid level pitching prospect or mid-level minor league prospect.

If they would take that for Puig. I am grabbing him and selling tickets.

[swaisuc]

Pass from the Dodgers point of view or the Reds point of view?

Is it because of Puig's immaturity that you would be passing on him?

I personally think that the reds would not have enough to get Puig-- and/or they would need a bigger draw to sell to their fan base besides Cueto, an extra-outfielder, and prospects for Puig.

Perhaps Chapman would be enough star power.... but....

Pass for the Reds. It manages to make us worse both this year and in the future, which is hard for a trade to do.

[RedTeamGo!]

So, a 21-year-old year old phenom, you are passing on because he plays balls out. Umm.. Ok.

You misunderstand what I meant. I am not just flat passing on Bryce Harper because he "plays balls out", but I am passing on what it would take to acquire him, which would be 4 or 5 players. You also cannot ignore that Harper is constantly injured.

LOLOLOL that's an awesome trade though. I mean come on... Why would they not do that one? An ace, a young AA prospect that... well, yeah... we'll see how that turns out, and Lorenzen, an older second year pro who, they're not sure what they are going to do with. LOLOLOLOL That's an awesome deal, I can't imagine why the Dodgers would say no to that.

I think to get a deal done for Puig--the following would HAVE to be involved (and one I would consider, depending on parts the Reds would get back)
A healthy Cueto.
A healthy Chapman
TOP hitting prospect or TOP pitching prospect
Mid level pitching prospect or mid-level minor league prospect.

If they would take that for Puig. I am grabbing him and selling tickets.

This was my original point. There is no realistic trade scenario for Puig going to the Reds for either team. I did not say that would be enough to acquire Puig, which is why I said "when the Dodgers say no..."

OK - lets say the Dodgers accept the following trade:

Cueto
Chapman
Stephenson
YRod

Who replaces Cueto (the best starting pitcher in MLB right now, and the staff ace) in the rotation? It can't be Stephenson because you traded him.
Who replaces Chapman? Broxton? Good luck with that over an entire season. If you haven't noticed the bullpen has been bad this season without Chapman, removing him for the rest of the year and next would be a disaster IMO.
Losing Yrod is not a big deal because you replace his future spot with Puig.

The Dodgers would not do it either though, Puig is the face of their franchise right now.

It would be great to have Puig, but trading away at the minimum 2 major league stars and 1 likely at the minimum good major leaguer and 1 that has a shot to be a good major leaguer is just a mistake.

[Don Votto]

You misunderstand what I meant. I am not just flat passing on Bryce Harper because he "plays balls out", but I am passing on what it would take to acquire him, which would be 4 or 5 players. You also cannot ignore that Harper is constantly injured.

Point taken on 4-5 players... but, keep in mind, part of the reason Krivsky traded away Hamilton for the same reason you would not take Harper--

Who replaces Cueto? Well... Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, and Simon (and then Lively, Lorenzen, Corcino? Whoever the next guy up is...
Bottomline--the key would be that you MUST sign Latos and Leake if this is done.
Cueto is the best pitcher in the NL right now. BUT... he has thrown 55 innings through one month, thanks to Dusty-esque burning of pitchers. He has been hurt 2 of the 3 past years. Three--his contract is UP in 2015... and the stone cold facts are... I doubt the Reds can sign all three pitchers in Latos and Leake.. so something has got to give.

Who replaces Chapman? Do you need a closer for a third place team this year? SABR-ologists tell us finding a closer is not all that difficult, right?

It would be awesome to have Puig. Build your team around him. But.... well, whatever.

[RedTeamGo!]

Point taken on 4-5 players... but, keep in mind, part of the reason Krivsky traded away Hamilton for the same reason you would not take Harper--

Who replaces Cueto? Well... Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, and Simon (and then Lively, Lorenzen, Corcino? Whoever the next guy up is...
Bottomline--the key would be that you MUST sign Latos and Leake if this is done.
Cueto is the best pitcher in the NL right now. BUT... he has thrown 55 innings through one month, thanks to Dusty-esque burning of pitchers. He has been hurt 2 of the 3 past years. Three--his contract is UP in 2015... and the stone cold facts are... I doubt the Reds can sign all three pitchers in Latos and Leake.. so something has got to give.

Who replaces Chapman? Do you need a closer for a third place team this year? SABR-ologists tell us finding a closer is not all that difficult, right?

It would be awesome to have Puig. Build your team around him. But.... well, whatever.

Hamilton and Harper are not the same. Hamilton was a heroin addict that was banned from baseball for 3 years because he had been caught doing HEROIN multiple times. Harper has injury problems. Not the same at all. The Reds picked him up for nothing during the rule 5 draft. This guy was out of baseball 1 year before he was traded. Hamilton is about as unique of a case as you can have in any sport.

Chapman is not a free agent until 2017, so it's not just this season.

Cueto has had 1 injury plagued season, 2013. In 2012 he pitched over 200 innings and got injured in the playoffs. It is important to point out that Cueto has not had arm issues, while your replacement Latos, is currently out with an elbow injury.

Simon? Counting on him to be a long-term contributor is a mistake IMO.
Corcino is terrible, a non-factor at this point.
Lorenzen is far away
Lively has been a very nice surprise, but who knows if it is a mirage or not.

This is part of my point on Stephenson. Other than Cueto, Latos, Chapman and maybe Bailey, Stephenson has the best arm in the organization. By trading him away you are hurting your team for years to come. Arms like his don't come around often, sure he can throw his arm out and never pitch again, but you have to take that risk with an arm like his.

[Don Votto]

****SEE NEW THREAD STARTED****

Cueto has had 1 injury plagued season, 2013. In 2012 he pitched over 200 innings and got injured in the playoffs. It is important to point out that Cueto has not had arm issues, while your replacement Latos, is currently out with an elbow injury.

Simon? Counting on him to be a long-term contributor is a mistake IMO.
Corcino is terrible, a non-factor at this point.
Lorenzen is far away
Lively has been a very nice surprise, but who knows if it is a mirage or not.

Cueto had shoulder problems in 2011. 15 day DL May 8, 2011. Shoulder issues missed 33 games because of it
Cueto later had lats issues in September, 2011 Causing him to miss 14 games
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca...d.php?id=47415

Corcino Pre-2013: Rated #94 Prospect My point on prospects. 94th rated prospect in the minor leagues, prior to 2013.

Simon is not a long term solution, I agree. However, could he bridge something for 1-2 years while minor leaguers (whomever comes through)... at worst I think Simon could be a .500 starter with a low 4.00 era

I do agree on Chapman, you have him signed for three more seasons; however, he hits arbitration after 2015, and he will be due an increase of salary from 5 million to possibly 10-12 million in arbitration in 2016 and 2017.

So.... where as the Reds have a super cheap SUPERSTAR closer right now, his cash value increases tremendously after 2015--and with Phillips, Votto, and Bruce all getting salary increases from 2016-2017 (compared to their 2014 salary) plus Bailey's deal where he goes from 10 million in 2015 to 18 million in 2016 could the Reds afford a 10-12 million dollar closer, while also trying to sign Cueto, Latos, and Leake?

So, essentially-- the Reds guaranteed salaries for 2016 are as follows:
Joey Votto--20 Million
Homer Bailey--18 million
Brandon Phillips--13 million
Jay Bruce--12.5 million
Total--63.5 million in salary for 2016 committed.

Now...
Throw in Chapman's second year of arbitration (and if he establishes himself again as a SUPERSTAR closer) his numbers will be minimum 10 million.
So, the Reds will have 73.5 million dollars committed...

Throw in the fact that... Frazier, Cingrani, and Mesaroco will also be arbitration eligible in 2016...
You may as well add another 8 to 10 million to the total...

So, the Reds will have about 83.5 million dollars and two starting pitchers signed (in Cingrani and Bailey...)

Now... here's the scary thing...based on 2014 numbers)
Cueto open market-- minimum 14 mil per year
Leake open market--minimum 12 mil per year
Latos open market--minimum 14 mil per year
And, I really do not feel any of those guys would give a "hometown" discount to the Reds...

So, to sign those guys... (and I honestly think those numbers are EXTREMELY low--I think if you were to sign all three.. it will be in the 65-75 million dollar range per season)
The Reds payroll for in 2016 will be a MINIMUM 133 MILLION DOLLARS (if no trades are made)
1B- Votto 20 MIL
2B- Phillips --13 MIL
SS- I imagine a rookie..etc.. league min
3B Frazier--3-5Mil?
C-Mesaroco--3-5 mil?
LF-??? rookie league min
CF Hamilton-- league pre-arb min
RF -Bruce--12.5 mil

SP-Bailey 18 mil
SP-Cingrani 6 mil? maybe? (since Leake's Arb is 5.9mil this year)
SP-Latos (14 mil MINIMUM) (and compared to Bailey that is laughable)
SP-Cueto (14 Mil MINIMUM) (and compared to Bailey that is laughable)
SP Leake (14 MIl Minimum) (and compared to Bailey that is laughable)
CL Chapman (10 Mil Minimum)
With no bench and no bullpen--

So, once again...

The Reds (with NO CHANGES) in 2014 (via trade..etc)
Their Estimated Projected Salaries are 133 Million Dollars

THAT BETTER BE ONE HELL OF A TELEVISION CONTRACT.

[Assembly Hall]

IMHO the trade is ludicrous. I am sure the Reds would be willing to cough up some talent. But look at it from the Dodger's standpoint. They have a good team and a couple of the hottest commodities in MLB, one of them being Puig. Right now he is a cash cow, there is no way in hell LA would listen to anything any team would offer for him until he shows signs of decline.

[AmarilloRed]

On Bailey's 18 million for 2016, 11 million of it is deferred and paid in November.The remaining 7 million is actually what is on the Reds budget. If the Reds hadn't been able to get Bailey to defer over half that contract, it is unlikely he would have been resigned.

[dougdirt]

The Reds aren't going to be trading Robert Stephenson, so we can just end that talk now. He is the best right handed arm they have had in the last 40 years coming through their system.

[PepperJack]

Now... here's the scary thing...based on 2014 numbers)
Cueto open market-- minimum 14 mil per year
Leake open market--minimum 12 mil per year
Latos open market--minimum 14 mil per year
And, I really do not feel any of those guys would give a "hometown" discount to the Reds...

So, to sign those guys... (and I honestly think those numbers are EXTREMELY low--I think if you were to sign all three.. it will be in the 65-75 million dollar range per season)
The Reds payroll for in 2016 will be a MINIMUM 133 MILLION DOLLARS (if no trades are made)

That math doesn't add up.

There is a significant salary projection difference in figuring a minimum of 12-14 million per player, and then adding that up to be 21+-25 million average per pitcher.

A problem you may also run into focusing on 2016, is that some of the contracts that seem to concern you(Phillips/Bruce) are due to expire after 2017, lessening your feared salary crunch to at least some degree.

[REDREAD]

Honestly, I would not trade Cueto for Puig straight up, most less add other parts.
The time to win is now and next year.
Without Cueto, honestly, this team is not a contender at all, no matter how the offense is beefed up.

Let's be honest, Homer is not an ace yet. Cingrani has lingering injury problems and it looks like this year, Price is forcing him to use more than the FB, which is going to hurt his numbers (short term)
Latos is questionable too. I know he's progressing well in his rehab, but what happens if he's just average this year?

Cueto is the main support pole that holds up the entire pitching staff, IMO. Especially this year. The other guys are good, but Cueto is irreplaceable.