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Thread: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

  1. #46
    Stat geek...and proud
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Where do you stand on Tim Raines?
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

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  3. #47
    They call me "chef"
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    If someone values OPS as a method for ranking players, they are going to use that same method for evaluating your list and the sting of having to view an unattractive 90's big bopper in a new, more distinguished light won't scare them away from keeping their opinion. Change and re-thinking what you think you know is part of any paradigm shift.

    The intended point of your list only carries weight if you are already subscribing to the "you need 400 home runs and 1400 rbi to be a HOF player" philosophy.
    Cincinnati Reds 2014 W-L Record: 76.6-85.4*

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    *UPDATED: 2/11/2014

  4. #48
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Please learn one thing about SABR before you spout off anymore nonsense and that is it's SABR not saber, one's a group that studies the history (and other research) of baseball and the other is a sword.
    Last edited by westofyou; 05-06-2014 at 06:56 AM.

  5. #49
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Don Votto View Post

    Go watch Money Ball Raisor and imagine Brad Pitt is asking you the question at the table, so you can tell us, he gets on base.
    Do you realize how ignorant this makes you sound?

  6. #50
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Votto should play over Perez on those BRM teams, it's simple science.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  7. #51
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Votto should play over Perez on those BRM teams, it's simple science.
    Sigh. Get out of your mom's basement, stop playing with a calculator and play division 3 college baseball, then you may have a clue and understand you cannot get into the hall of fame if your name is Joey.

    *this was sarcasm
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 05-06-2014 at 10:33 AM.

  8. #52
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Do you realize how ignorant this makes you sound?
    The famous idiom "The pot calling the kettle black." springs to mind here. I remember much more ignorant comment made by you on the basic rules of baseball and I could certainly post that embarrassing thing if you want me to.

  9. #53
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    The famous idiom "The pot calling the kettle black." springs to mind here. I remember much more ignorant comment made by you on the basic rules of baseball and I could certainly post that embarrassing thing if you want me to.
    Go ahead - I have no idea what you are talking about.

  10. #54
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Almost every player on that list who is not in the Hall or wont get in (and is eligible) - it is because of too short a career or peak years. (Best examples are O'Doul who was 31 before he played a meaningful amount of ML ball and Keller, who lost 4 prime years to WWII and was not able to get back to playing peak). A couple were defensive nightmares (Herman) or seen as 1 way players (Martinez). And a couple are quiet, underrated non-flashy types who never got credit for being as good as they were (Giles). Jackson is a special case, of course. And a couple were great players but lousy human beings (Belle, Allen) who fail to get votes from the writers on that basis. I fail to see what this list proves?



    Red Team Go! and Don Votto
    "true fans"
    "Get out of your mom's basement, stop playing with a calculator and play division 3 college baseball, then you may have a clue"

    So, let me get this straight - if you didn't play little league, then HS ball, then go on to play Division 3 ball we can't possibly understand "real" baseball. Somewhere, at the end of that progression we found the "clue" that unlocks the game's mysteries and we can become true fans, right? You do know what a horse's derriere that makes you sound like? BTW, does the NAIA count? I'd hate to think I wasted those years as a Park Pirate...
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  11. #55
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    I was totally being sarcastic

  12. #56
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Almost every player on that list who is not in the Hall or wont get in (and is eligible) - it is because of too short a career or peak years. (Best examples are O'Doul who was 31 before he played a meaningful amount of ML ball and Keller, who lost 4 prime years to WWII and was not able to get back to playing peak). A couple were defensive nightmares (Herman) or seen as 1 way players (Martinez). And a couple are quiet, underrated non-flashy types who never got credit for being as good as they were (Giles). Jackson is a special case, of course. And a couple were great players but lousy human beings (Belle, Allen) who fail to get votes from the writers on that basis. I fail to see what this list proves?
    Giles was a terrible person as well, didn't he beat his wife?

  13. #57
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Giles was a terrible person as well, didn't he beat his wife?
    Yeah, he did now that you reminded me. Add another reason he will never be considered.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I was totally being sarcastic
    Then I apologize - sometimes I don't catch the sarcasm...I think it's age related dementia...
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    RedTeamGo! (05-06-2014)

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE

    The peak performance age is around 28 for batters.

    For OPS the percent loss at age 40 is 6.5 percent instead of 9.8 percent. For OBP the loss is 4.0 percent instead
    of 5.6 percent.

    As shown in in Ray Fair's paper "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball", Votto's career path and numbers are somewhat trending to the expectations of the Age Effects model that Fair described in his paper published through Yale University in 2008. Essentially, a baseball players peak performance will be at age 28. From then on, the player is in decline.

    Fair exhibited two models--Curve A, that a player can stay near his peak-performance value for a number of years after his peak-performance age, but at a cost of faster bodily deterioration later. An alternative strategy may be, as in Curve B, not to push as hard after the peak-performance age and have a slower decline rate.

    Fair represent a Curve A in decling where the player's peak performance stayed nearly on the same track for roughly 5 years after peak age of 28, and then around 33 or 34 there is a drop off, followed by a SIGNIFICANT crash to year 40.

    Where as in Curve B Fair showed a player with immediate decline following the peak age of 28, however, that player carried a consistent slope of regression until year 40.

    Fair also showed in his analysis that For OPS the percent loss at age 40 is 6.5 percent, and for OBP the loss is 4.0 percent

    This study essentially confirms what Bill James stated in an earlier paper, where he wrote that a hitter will steadily lose their slugging ability around the age of 31; however, their OBP will show less of a decline as they age.

    ------
    Fair's theory, scarily is confirmed and contradicted by Votto's career path since his torn meniscus in 2012.

    Votto-- Pre July, 2012
    .317/.406/.559/.965

    Votto--Post July, 2012
    .301/.435/.479/.914

    Votto's OBP has increased 7%--conflicting Fair's hypothesis, however, (if compared to Curve A) those walks are maintaining his OPS. Case in point, prior to 2011, Votto had NEVER walked more than 91 times in a season.

    However, Votto's quick decline in slugging is concerning. Since Votto's injury, Votto's slugging has fallen almost 14.3% WELL AHEAD of the age regression curve that Fair described, and James postulated about in the Bill James Baseball Abstract, published in 1982

    While Vottos's walk rate has helped maintain his OBP, his large fall off in slugging has lowered his OPS by roughly 5.25% (which is just below the OPS curve Fair described in his paper.


    My contention to how that plays out with Votto is that, if he continues to lose his power, the pitchers will not be "so quick to walk" Votto.

    If this is the case, then Votto's OPS will fall DRASTICALLY, because his slugging will fall and his OBP value will fall--which will put him sub .900--which, in the present is not very Hall-of-Fame like if you have no other TANGIBLE measureables than getting on base through a walk. (IE--power, total hits, speed, defense SOMETHING that sets you apart from your peers)

  16. #59
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    If pitcher start pitching to Votto regularly he WILL hit.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    If pitcher start pitching to Votto regularly he WILL hit.
    I agree to an extent-- but, it is a catch-22 he will need extra base hits and not just singles. Since the injury his extra base hit percentage is down to 8.2%--which is a far cry from 10-12% that he maintained through the pre-injury years.

    Also, if the walks go away, and Votto is forced to put the ball in play more then the chances of him getting on base versus taking a walk are DRASTICALLY impacting his OBP% and OPS. Why? Quite simply, a walk is 100% that you get on base. If you put the ball in play, you have eight defenders there to catch it-- and then, eight defenders can either mishandle and throw it away, resulting in an error and taking away your OBP or putting you out, resulting in taking away your OBP.

    Either way, with post-injury Votto-- if you take away 40 walks from Votto and force him to put the ball in play you are only getting on base 12 times. and of those 12 times, perhaps what 4-5 are for extra bases? THAT WOULD BE A HUGE IMPACT TO OPS.

    For example...
    Using the post-Votto July 12 spreadsheet.

    If Votto had 40 fewer walks, BUT instead he was 12/40 with 7 singles 3 doubles and 2 homeruns. (Of Votto's hits, 30% are extra bases--AND I AM BEING GENEROUS giving him an extra base hit instead of a single (which equates to a 42% of Votto's hits are extra bases)

    Then Votto's slash line is
    .301/.407/.481 .888 OPS
    versus
    .301/.435/.479 .914 OPS
    Last edited by Don Votto; 05-06-2014 at 12:08 PM.


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