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Thread: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...1B#pitchvalues

    Joey Votto - still hitting the fastball well above-average, though not as good as he has in past years. Of course it is May 7th and he hasn't had a single hot streak yet this season.]

    Also, this thread has been very enlightening.
    I appreciate that you feel the thread I created has been enlightening. That is saying a lot.

    Is there a way, per fangraphs, to tell with what degree of power Votto is hitting the fastballs at a well above average? And, is there a way to tell on fangraphs the speed of the fastball,--I guess, is it possible to differentiate a fastball thrown by say, Sam LeCure versus a fastball thrown by Jose Fernandez?

    On Baseball Reference, they have a category in the splits called Power vs Finesse--but it differentiates it as pitchers in top third in K/BB ratio are power pitchers vs bottom third K/BB ratio are finesse pitchers.

    Vs "power pitchers" 2014 season, Votto's slash line is .263/.329/.421/.850 (49 plate appearances)
    HOWEVER
    vs "power pitchers" 2013 season, Votto's slash line was .279/.451/.531/.982 (195 plate appearances)
    vs "power pitchers" 2012 season, Votto's slash line was .265/.451/.426/.877 (91 plate appearances)
    vs "power pitchers" 2011 season, Votto's slash line was .248/.378/.372/.750 (148 plate appearances)
    vs "power pitchers" 2010 season, Votto's slash line was .325/.405/.507/.1018 (139 plate appearances)

    So, essentially it's all over the board. And, let's face it... to term a pitcher a power pitcher because of K/BB ration only and then also to try to use that as a means to figure out... that guy is throwing 96+... is a bit of a stretch, to show one way or another whether a guy can hit the fastball.

    I don't doubt Votto can hit a straight fastball still. My wonder is, at what degree, and not only this year, but throughout his career has Votto slugged fastballs, and then-- (again) what velocity are those fastballs?

    Is there a stat in fangraphs (or any other site) that shows something like...
    90 mph fastball-- isolated power
    91 mph fastball-- isolated power
    etc..etc...

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  3. #77
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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...1B#pitchvalues
    Of course it is May 7th and he hasn't had a single hot streak yet this season.
    Also.. you mentioned Votto's hot streak--
    Is this more of a fan's hope or an expectation?

    My point being, if there is one thing the stats show, based on Votto's career to this point, is his consistency from April through October. He is not a streaky hitter like Jay Bruce.

    BUT.... Votto is entering the time of year, where based on career numbers May has been his most dominating month. SO... if Votto comes through the month of May without his "hot streak" then.... there may be cause for concern.

    Case in point:
    Votto
    March/April: .309/.431/.521/.951
    May: .333/.445/.569/1.014
    June: .311/.400/.525/.925
    July: .310/.389/.525/.915
    August: .306/.423/.529/.952
    Sept/Oct: .307/.421/.551/.972

    Bruce
    March/April: .253/.328/.445/.774
    May: .278/.353/.557./910
    June: .249/.315/.451/.766
    July: .235/.305/.386/.691
    August: .260/.333/.518/.952
    Sept/Oct: .256/.351/.510/.861
    Last edited by Don Votto; 05-08-2014 at 11:48 AM.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    If you don't think Joey Votto, or any major league that gets regular playing time, is going to have a hot streak at some point over 162 games, I don't know what to say. Everyone has them, even the Zack Cozarts of the world.

    As for your question about differentiating between the FB velocities, you may be able to find something at BaseballSavant.com with their Pitch F/X tool. Perhaps something at BrooksBaseball.net with their data.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If you don't think Joey Votto, or any major league that gets regular playing time, is going to have a hot streak at some point over 162 games, I don't know what to say. Everyone has them, even the Zack Cozarts of the world.

    As for your question about differentiating between the FB velocities, you may be able to find something at BaseballSavant.com with their Pitch F/X tool. Perhaps something at BrooksBaseball.net with their data.
    Well... Votto did have a run of hitting safely in 12 of 14 games in April. Would that qualify as a "hot streak"?

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Put this in ORG. Didn't get much play. Might as well try here:

    Just some thoughts.

    When you hear most offensive players talk, they say their primary goal is to go to the plate and hit the ball hard and drive the ball and drive in runs. Joey seems to be inclined towards the sabermetric approach of my goal is to not make an out.

    It may sound like a chicken or egg situation but by going up to drive the ball hard, if you're a good hitter, you are going to not make outs and hit for power as well as get a decent share of walks due to fear of your ability to drive the ball. Your SABR stats like OBP, SLG and OPS will look great because you are driving the ball while trying to drive in runs.

    If your goal is to just not make an out, you'll not be looking so much to drive the ball but rather get on by any means necessary. Less power hits, and more walks. Fouling off borderline pitches with weaker swings rather than taking full swings to drive the ball sometimes resulting in weak in play contact. You're still going to have great SABR stats but the result may be more OBP based on walks, the least productive form of production, rather than OBP based on hits and power hits (more productive production) with a good number, but less walks.

    I kind of see that approach in Joey. It seems like he's trying to not make an out at times more than he's trying to drive the ball. I guess I'm saying by going with a more old school approach to drive the ball and drive in runs (if you have the ability which Joey does) your SABR stats will take care of themselves. Whereas going to the plate with a don't make an out approach with SABR stats in mind more than a I'm going to drive the ball approach, it may lead to more defensive hitting and swings in the name of not making an out than trying to attack and drive the ball.

    I'm not trying to say this is definitely the case. Just some stuff that crossed my mind. Figured id share and get thoughts.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Put this in ORG. Didn't get much play. Might as well try here:

    Just some thoughts.

    When you hear most offensive players talk, they say their primary goal is to go to the plate and hit the ball hard and drive the ball and drive in runs. Joey seems to be inclined towards the sabermetric approach of my goal is to not make an out.

    It may sound like a chicken or egg situation but by going up to drive the ball hard, if you're a good hitter, you are going to not make outs and hit for power as well as get a decent share of walks due to fear of your ability to drive the ball. Your SABR stats like OBP, SLG and OPS will look great because you are driving the ball while trying to drive in runs.

    If your goal is to just not make an out, you'll not be looking so much to drive the ball but rather get on by any means necessary. Less power hits, and more walks. Fouling off borderline pitches with weaker swings rather than taking full swings to drive the ball sometimes resulting in weak in play contact. You're still going to have great SABR stats but the result may be more OBP based on walks, the least productive form of production, rather than OBP based on hits and power hits (more productive production) with a good number, but less walks.

    I kind of see that approach in Joey. It seems like he's trying to not make an out at times more than he's trying to drive the ball. I guess I'm saying by going with a more old school approach to drive the ball and drive in runs (if you have the ability which Joey does) your SABR stats will take care of themselves. Whereas going to the plate with a don't make an out approach with SABR stats in mind more than a I'm going to drive the ball approach, it may lead to more defensive hitting and swings in the name of not making an out than trying to attack and drive the ball.

    I'm not trying to say this is definitely the case. Just some stuff that crossed my mind. Figured id share and get thoughts.
    I agree to a certain extent. I think he is sort of like Rose in this approach--Rose's goal was 200 hits, every year.... BOTTOM LINE...

    To me Votto's goal is .900 OPS... AND high OBP.... how do you do that? By walking a LOT.

    I am still not full convinced he is pitched around as one might expect....

    Votto makes excellent contact on a high number of pitches in strike zone.
    Votto only swings at strikes.
    Votto is pitched around.

    So riddle me this... how does Votto strike out 125 times a year... if all of those things are true?

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Because your riddle is incorrect.

    Joey Votto does swing at non-strikes. Not a bunch of them, but 20% of them (best in baseball since 2012 began).
    Joey Votto does not make contact on a high number of pitches in the strike zone. He ranks 101st in contact rate in the strikezone out of 160 qualified players since 2012.
    Joey Votto is indeed pitched around.

    The reason Votto strikes out 125 times is actually pretty simple: He takes a lot of pitches because he isn't going to swing at a strike on the black unless he already has two strikes on him or he is fooled on the pitch, and when he does indeed swing, he isn't a high contact hitter.

    Just for fun, Joey Votto has the 2nd lowest first pitch strike rate in baseball since 2012. Joey Votto has 52nd lowest rate of pitches in the strikezone thrown to him (of 160). Jay Bruce ranked 30th. The difference between the two of them is just 0.9%.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Don Votto View Post
    I agree to a certain extent. I think he is sort of like Rose in this approach--Rose's goal was 200 hits, every year.... BOTTOM LINE...

    To me Votto's goal is .900 OPS... AND high OBP.... how do you do that? By walking a LOT.

    I am still not full convinced he is pitched around as one might expect....

    Votto makes excellent contact on a high number of pitches in strike zone.
    Votto only swings at strikes.
    Votto is pitched around.

    So riddle me this... how does Votto strike out 125 times a year... if all of those things are true?

    Pete has always been described as excellent at fouling off pitches until he got his. I think it's a great ability to have but Rose does not have Vottos power. Rose does that batting first or second and he sets the table for Morgan Bench Perez and Foster. Joey does it and well he sets the tae for way lesser players and it may diminish his power. Getting on base is a great skill, but is he sacrificing power in the process?

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Pete has always been described as excellent at fouling off pitches until he got his. I think it's a great ability to have but Rose does not have Vottos power. Rose does that batting first or second and he sets the table for Morgan Bench Perez and Foster. Joey does it and well he sets the tae for way lesser players and it may diminish his power. Getting on base is a great skill, but is he sacrificing power in the process?

    My comparison was how goal driven the two are. Rose checked the stat sheet daily... to see where he was and what it took to get there. His goal was 200 hits per season. Considering this--Rose was less prone to take a walk, because it would interfere with gaining his target goal of getting two hundred hits. Could Rose have had a higher OBP if... his sights were more focused on getting on base at a high clip (settling for walks) instead of focusing solely on a base hit... and thus REALLY setting the table for the BRM? I think it is an interesting thought....

    Now, with Votto--I think he is the same stat rat that Rose was--however, the stat he focuses on is OPS. I would imagine that Votto's MAIN seasonal goal is a .900 OPS. Williams and Bonds were his heroes (and there is absolutely NOTHING wrong with worshipping them-- well... their stats)

    Now, there are different avenues to get to .900 consistently.

    You can absolutely MASH the ball with a .300 + batting average and take fewer walks, like Miguel Cabrera and has done in his career and Albert Pujols did.

    OR you can build up your OBP through walks and have a lower slugging percentage (as long as you have enough extra base hits to push you into the .450 to .470ish slugging range.

    The freaks of nature are men like Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, and Bonds, that could walk 100+ a season and STILL have a minimum of 70 extra base hits per year

    MINIMUM 125 GAMES Years w 100 walks and 900+ OPS Years w/o 100 walks and 900+OPS Years w 70+ xbh and 900+ OPS Years w/o 70+ xbh and 900+ OPS YRS OVER 900 OPS YRS OVER 1.000 OPS
    BONDS 14 1 11 4 15 12
    WILLIAMS 11 1 8 4 12 12
    RUTH 12 2 11 3 14 13
    THOMAS 10 1 6 5 11 7
    PUJOLS 3 8 10 1 11 8
    CABRERA 1 7 7 1 8 3
    VOTTO 2 3 2 3 5 2

    In my observation, Votto now is taking more walks and settling for a higher OBP--
    Is that because he is getting nothing to hit and being pitched around? Or is it because he recognizes his standing in OPS?

    Ok... I can see that--to an extent. But the games I watch of Votto-- his "pitch arounds" are not as dramatic as say Barry Bonds. Votto usually gets at least ONE hittable pitch per at-bat. But what does he do with that pitch?

    In my opinion, of the pitches he is putting into play now--his power is not what it was pre-2012.

    Is he driving the ball for at the very minimum doubles?

    ---

    It is what it is. What still baffles me about Votto...... of the hitters I listed...of the .900OPS seasons:
    Again--to me.... and it's just my opinion... a player does not strike out over 100 times a season if they are being pitched around 100% of the time.
    Votto's 100+ strike out season = 4/5
    Cabrera's 100+ strike out season = 4/8
    Thomas 100+ strike out season = 2/11
    Bonds 100+ strike out season = 0
    Ruth's 100+ strike out season = 0
    William's 100+ strike out season = 0
    Pujols 100+ strike out season = 0

    What does it all mean? Not much of anything... to be sure... just player discussion!
    Last edited by Don Votto; 05-09-2014 at 01:57 PM.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    No one is pitched around 100% of the time. No one has come close to even suggesting Votto was pitched around 100% of the time.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No one is pitched around 100% of the time. No one has come close to even suggesting Votto was pitched around 100% of the time.
    Ok then.. curious... how many at bats per game do you figure Votto is pitched around? (Obviously it is game by game--but on average... how many?)
    I think it is close to maybe MAYBE an average of one at bat per game where the bat is taken out of Votto's hands.

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    So even in your maybe scenario, he literally is pitched around 160 times a year? That means you are admitting he is not getting a chance to hit the ball 160 times a year. Yet you are complaining that he doesn't hit enough. Do you understand how confusing that is?

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    Re: Tony Perez v Joey Votto--My take vs Sabrologists in ORG

    Have always maintained that the truth is somewhere in the middle of this debate. People split up into these camps and get pretty rigid in their thinking, but baseball doesn't work that way. Every AB is a unique situation. Those situations dicatate what approach the hitter needs to take. I have no qualm with Votto's overall approach. It's extremely good. But I think it could be even better in certain scenarios when he steps back and realizes, for example, that maybe Phillips and/or Bruce are struggling behind him. Both of those guy can go into funks that last weeks. In those situations, I don't want to see Votto taking pitches 1/8 of an inch off the plate with RISP, especially with two outs. I'd prefer he take some more rips at those instead of settling for a walk and trusting slump-prone players to get the job done.
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