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Thread: Why batting average IS a key stat.

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by Redeyecat View Post
    I agree with the notion that OBP is a better metric than BA if you can only choose one. However, I haven't completely abandoned batting average as a metric as it gives a context for OBP (e.g. does the batter get on base mostly via base hits or does he often utilize other means i.e. walks, HBP - or more generically is the batter a "free swinger"?) at a fairly quick glance. It doesn't matter much when the bases are empty, but it does factor in when there are runners on base - especially in scoring position.
    Not really. OBP is still king because it means you extended the inning at whatever rate your OBP is and added a base runner.

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  3. #17
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    I think too many people want to keep BA alive (as a go-to stat) because they have learned the benchmarks for it and are comfortable.

    Everyone grew up knowing <.250 = bad, .275 = average, .300 = good....etc.

    Expand your horizons.

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    Hoosier Red (05-31-2014), villain612 (06-02-2014)

  5. #18
    Member '69 & Vine's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not really. OBP is still king because it means you extended the inning at whatever rate your OBP is and added a base runner.
    Interesting, I questioned this because a hit can,

    1) can score a runner from any base or the plate
    2) creates potential errors and extra bases
    3) creates runs with less events
    4) potential to create RISP in fewer events

    Calculating RC27 of a lineup of .300/.300/.300 hitters vs a .290/.310/.290 hitters and the latter created about a .25 more runs per game.
    Last edited by '69 & Vine; 05-26-2014 at 12:19 PM.

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    Falcon7 (06-02-2014)

  7. #19
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by '69 & Vine View Post
    Interesting, I questioned this because a hit can,

    1) can score a runner from any base or the plate
    2) creates potential errors and extra bases
    3) creates runs with less events
    4) potential to create RISP in fewer events

    Calculating RC27 of a lineup of .300/.300/.300 hitters vs a .290/.310/.290 hitters and the latter created about a .25 more runs per game.
    That's 40 runs or 4 wins over the course of 162 games.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #20
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by '69 & Vine View Post
    Interesting, I questioned this because a hit can,

    1) can score a runner from any base or the plate
    2) creates potential errors and extra bases
    3) creates runs with less events
    4) potential to create RISP in fewer events

    Calculating RC27 of a lineup of .300/.300/.300 hitters vs a .290/.310/.290 hitters and the latter created about a .25 more runs per game.
    Shouldn't the slugging % be the same in each group? Arbitrarily assigning different slugging %s doesn't show anything.

    Run it as .300/.300/.300 vs .290/.300/.300, what does that show? I'm curious myself.

  9. #21
    Member '69 & Vine's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Shouldn't the slugging % be the same in each group? Arbitrarily assigning different slugging %s doesn't show anything.

    Run it as .300/.300/.300 vs .290/.300/.300, what does that show? I'm curious myself.
    I was trying to negate the effect of xbh...

    Anyway,

    It's all moot, I was using a calculator based on OBP/SLG only. Sorry!

    -jojo, I think your analysis is unchanged by this

    Just using OBP/SLG, SLG makes a similar impact on runs per game as OBP

    For example,

    OBP/SLG
    .290/.290 = 2.747 RPG
    .300/.290 = 2.917 RPG
    .290/.310 = 2.941 RPG
    .300/.300 = 3.014 RPG
    .300/.310 = 3.111
    .310/.300 = 3.184
    .310/.310 = 3.281
    Last edited by '69 & Vine; 05-26-2014 at 08:33 PM.

  10. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by '69 & Vine View Post
    Interesting, I questioned this because a hit can,

    1) can score a runner from any base or the plate
    2) creates potential errors and extra bases
    3) creates runs with less events
    4) potential to create RISP in fewer events

    Calculating RC27 of a lineup of .300/.300/.300 hitters vs a .290/.310/.290 hitters and the latter created about a .25 more runs per game.
    Hits are better than walks. No one will ever argue that. But OBP>AVG.

    The main issue is that some people want to see people expand the strikezone to try and get hits, because they don't want to see a guy walk then someone else not get a hit. The problem that they often fail to realize is that expanding the strikezone to try and get hits makes it far more likely to make an out, because well, 99% of hitters suck a lot more at hitting balls than they do at hitting strikes, while taking a walk, adding a base runner and letting the next guy try to hit a strike is far more likely to result in not just that first run they wanted to be scored, but more runs after that.

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    villain612 (06-02-2014)

  12. #23
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hits are better than walks. No one will ever argue that. But OBP>AVG.

    The main issue is that some people want to see people expand the strikezone to try and get hits, because they don't want to see a guy walk then someone else not get a hit. The problem that they often fail to realize is that expanding the strikezone to try and get hits makes it far more likely to make an out, because well, 99% of hitters suck a lot more at hitting balls than they do at hitting strikes, while taking a walk, adding a base runner and letting the next guy try to hit a strike is far more likely to result in not just that first run they wanted to be scored, but more runs after that.
    I would agree to that, in principle, but when a hitter consistently takes pitches early in the count and works a count to put themselves in a 3-2 or 2-2 situation, time and time again....

    And when said player is a coin flip when it comes to walks or strikeouts, then yes, I would prefer the player to be more aggressive on strikes early in the count, rather than taking them or playing cricket with the pitch....

    Especially, if the player then passes on the duty to drive in a run to a greatly inferior hitting talent than himself.

  13. #24
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hits are better than walks. No one will ever argue that. But OBP>AVG.

    The main issue is that some people want to see people expand the strikezone to try and get hits, because they don't want to see a guy walk then someone else not get a hit. The problem that they often fail to realize is that expanding the strikezone to try and get hits makes it far more likely to make an out, because well, 99% of hitters suck a lot more at hitting balls than they do at hitting strikes, while taking a walk, adding a base runner and letting the next guy try to hit a strike is far more likely to result in not just that first run they wanted to be scored, but more runs after that.
    Pretty much this.

    I don't consider AVG useless info, just a subset of OBP. I will look at a player's average but it's down on the list of things. To me OPS is the first thing I look at. Lots of information in there.

    I think as time goes on, we'll see the focus on AVG and RBI go down. Those two stats have been ingrained in every fan's head for a long, long time, but I think with advanced stats, we're able to notice better value in other measurements. Problem is, the advance stat era is barely over a decade old. I'd say in 20 years, OPS will be a lot more known in the average fan's lexicon.

    Anyone decrying the advanced stat era just needs to look around at how it's changed the game and how organizations run. High OBP guys like Shin Soo Choo are getting much larger contracts on the market than they would have 15 years ago. As its been pointed out, the team Bill James works for has won 3 World Series titles in the last ten years. Sign me up.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

  14. #25
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by Don Votto View Post
    I would agree to that, in principle, but when a hitter consistently takes pitches early in the count and works a count to put themselves in a 3-2 or 2-2 situation, time and time again....

    And when said player is a coin flip when it comes to walks or strikeouts, then yes, I would prefer the player to be more aggressive on strikes early in the count, rather than taking them or playing cricket with the pitch....

    Especially, if the player then passes on the duty to drive in a run to a greatly inferior hitting talent than himself.
    He's giving his team the chance to score more runs. Expanding the strike zone or swinging at pitches he is not able to drive, just gives the hitter a very high likely hood of making an out, not driving in a run.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  15. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by Don Votto View Post
    I would agree to that, in principle, but when a hitter consistently takes pitches early in the count and works a count to put themselves in a 3-2 or 2-2 situation, time and time again....

    And when said player is a coin flip when it comes to walks or strikeouts, then yes, I would prefer the player to be more aggressive on strikes early in the count, rather than taking them or playing cricket with the pitch....

    Especially, if the player then passes on the duty to drive in a run to a greatly inferior hitting talent than himself.
    You seem to think I said a player should take strikes. I didn't. I said don't expand the strikezone to try and get hits. I am ok with a guy taking a pitch on the black when they are ahead in the count. Otherwise, I want guys swinging at strikes.

  16. #27
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Just wish we could get the whole baseball world focused on OPS. It's as close to a perfect stat as there is for productivity.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  17. #28
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Why batting average IS a key stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Just wish we could get the whole baseball world focused on OPS. It's as close to a perfect stat as there is for productivity.
    It's a lot closer to perfect for me if it's adjusted for era and park factors.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.


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