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Thread: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

  1. #31
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    How quickly we forget the current Reds SP that was a consensus top 10 overall prospect. Seems that Stephenson is having some of the same consistency issues right now that Bailey did, but by all accounts, he's a bit more coachable.
    I always thought Bailey was overrated. Obviously, after the insanity of his early callups (way before he was anything near ready) and three years of finding his way, he's become a good pitcher. It took him until age 26 to settle in, which I think pretty clearly argues that he was a case of rankings inflation. Cueto leapfrogged Homer in 2007, stuck in the majors first, became a quality major league pitcher first and has had a better overall career to date. Who was the better prospect? Cueto, and there's really not much to argue on that. Bailey had a better pedigree, but the industry made a little too much of his 2006 season (which was bookended by some trouble). Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight we can recognize Bailey wasn't exactly the bolt of lightning he was made out to be.

    We don't have hindsight on Stephenson yet, but he possesses octane that neither Bailey nor Cueto ever boasted. In fact, he's got two pitches better than anything Bailey or Cueto throws. He's searching for control a bit at the moment, but he's still carrying an eye-popping 10.9 K/9. It is no slight on Bailey or Cueto to note that Stephenson may be the better prospect. The kid is a rarity, a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. That's the kind of arm he's got. It could all go wrong, but Stephenson's ability is off the charts.
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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I always thought Bailey was overrated. Obviously, after the insanity of his early callups (way before he was anything near ready) and three years of finding his way, he's become a good pitcher. It took him until age 26 to settle in, which I think pretty clearly argues that he was a case of rankings inflation. Cueto leapfrogged Homer in 2007, stuck in the majors first, became a quality major league pitcher first and has had a better overall career to date. Who was the better prospect? Cueto, and there's really not much to argue on that. Bailey had a better pedigree, but the industry made a little too much of his 2006 season (which was bookended by some trouble). Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight we can recognize Bailey wasn't exactly the bolt of lightning he was made out to be.

    We don't have hindsight on Stephenson yet, but he possesses octane that neither Bailey nor Cueto ever boasted. In fact, he's got two pitches better than anything Bailey or Cueto throws. He's searching for control a bit at the moment, but he's still carrying an eye-popping 10.9 K/9. It is no slight on Bailey or Cueto to note that Stephenson may be the better prospect. The kid is a rarity, a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. That's the kind of arm he's got. It could all go wrong, but Stephenson's ability is off the charts.
    Prospect rankings aren't done based on who is going to do something first. They are based on what a guys career will be. That Homer Bailey has turned into what he has actually says they didn't overrank him, but saw exactly what he could become. I think that Cueto was more underrated than Bailey was overrated and it was probably entirely due to the fact that he was short and pudgy.

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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    What's strange is that almost all of the Reds interesting prospects are concentrated on two teams - Pensacola and Bakersfield. Louisville is the least interesting Reds AAA team I can ever remember, and outside of Travieso, Dayton hasn't been much to follow. One could make a case for a few of the guys like Daal, Rahier, Guillon, and even Ervin - so far as his early struggles have been a story, but really other than that, every interesting player in the Reds system is on one of those two teams. No top prospects really waiting to start in Rookie Leagues. Jose Ortiz maybe. Anyway, not sure what implication that has, but I thought it was interesting to note.
    Almost no organization has a prospect-laden AAA team. You've got to be loaded at the major league level in order to have prospects bottle up at AAA. Houston technically has a lot of prospects coming through AAA now, though we'll have to see whether their prospect/player ratio pans out (I'm skeptical about that organization, it's got a real KC vibe).

    Dayton actually strikes me as pretty interesting at the moment. Travieso is doing absolutely everything we could hope for at that moment (which is great). Same can be said for Guillon. Langfield is having a bawdy return so far. Daal is swiftly becoming a prospect. In fact, we might need to start talking about him as being on the Didi Gregorius path. Rahier is at least showing a pulse at the plate. For all his early struggles, Ervin's still got a high ceiling. And then there's Elizalde. Sure, he's playing in a league too low right now (might be two leagues too low), but .310/.460/.563 deserves some attention. If it was easy to do, Jeff Gelalich would be doing it.

    There's a lot of kids who could bust out in Billings this year (again I will note that the Reds really should get themselves a New York-Penn affiliate on top of Billings): Aristides Aquino, Kevin Garcia, Gabriel Rosa, Jose Ortiz, Kevin Franklin, Cory Thompson, Mark Armstrong, Ty Boyles, Jeremy Kivel, Tyler Mahle and Jackson Stephens. And there's a pile of DSL kids ticketed for the AZL Reds. I actually think it's a pretty active system right now.
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Prospect rankings aren't done based on who is going to do something first. They are based on what a guys career will be. That Homer Bailey has turned into what he has actually says they didn't overrank him, but saw exactly what he could become. I think that Cueto was more underrated than Bailey was overrated and it was probably entirely due to the fact that he was short and pudgy.
    Homer hasn't been what they thought he'd be, which is fine because almost no one is that. He's a good pitcher, not a great one, not an ace. The industry thought he had fastball projection that he didn't have and his breaking ball really isn't a put away pitch. Again, I recognize that's quibbling with a steak dinner. Homer's a fine cut of meat even if he's not porterhouse.

    Yet if you go back and look at the 2007 and 2008 lists, you would not stick Homer in the top 10. As for the theory behind why a guy gets in the top 10, I would argue that a designation that lofty means a kid is coming and coming fast. Not only does he have a super high ceiling, but there's very little that's going to get in his way of reaching it. Homer was 5-6 years away from getting anywhere near his ceiling when he ranked in the top 10. What really makes Homer interesting is he came through all that and he's still standing. Instead of washed up at 30, he might be pitching quality baseball well into his 30s (at least we better hope so). He might actually earn his money. If he's Bronson Arroyo with a glitzier FIP, we'll all be thrilled. However, that's not what he was billed as and no one would have ranked him that high if they thought that's where he'd settle.

    Stephenson, by contrast, seems to possess a level of awesomeness (in terms of pure stuff) that Homer never attained, which is why I made the "best ever" comment. I'm very happy with what Homer Bailey has become. It's not an insult to the guy to look back and recognize that he got a bit overhyped. I'll be very happy if Stephenson pans out exactly like Bailey. However, Stephenson's got ace potential beyond anyone we've seen come through the Reds' system in what seems like forever. I could be wrong, but I think you generally agree with that last statement.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    I'm with you on Stephenson. He is easily the best pitching prospect of my lifetime in the Reds system.

    With Bailey though, I don't know that I can agree with you on going back and reworking the list because Bailey is all of 28-years-old. There simply isn't enough time to say who has or hasn't had the better career. Once upon a time everyone would have claimed no one on the list would top Tim Lincecum. Now it is easy to put several guys ahead of him and over the next five years I bet you can move a few more ahead of him. Now, if you want to argue that the rankings shouldn't be about long term value, you can. But you are looking at the wrong lists then because that is what the BA/BP lists were ranking.

    I am also not so sure about the fastball issue. Going back to 2013 he has the 6th fastest average fastball in the game among starters. If someone missed on it, it was by a tiny, tiny margin.

  8. #36
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Bailey's story is all the more interesting because he's basically a different pitcher than when he was hyped. He dropped his curveball and learned to locate his fastball. He's both an affirmation of the hype and a clear example of being over hyped.

    To put it another way, congrats to him for surviving!
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani

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  10. #37
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Now, if you want to argue that the rankings shouldn't be about long term value, you can. But you are looking at the wrong lists then because that is what the BA/BP lists were ranking.
    I would say BA ranks current market value based on future speculation. If it were ranking long-term value, then its lists wouldn't be anywhere near as fluid as they are. It obviously hopes the future value pans out, but it will yo-yo prospects up and down (and off) its lists for as long as they retain prospect status.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #38
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    We don't have hindsight on Stephenson yet, but he possesses octane that neither Bailey nor Cueto ever boasted. In fact, he's got two pitches better than anything Bailey or Cueto throws. He's searching for control a bit at the moment, but he's still carrying an eye-popping 10.9 K/9. It is no slight on Bailey or Cueto to note that Stephenson may be the better prospect. The kid is a rarity, a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. That's the kind of arm he's got. It could all go wrong, but Stephenson's ability is off the charts.
    What octane does he possess bailey did not? Bailey was throwing 97 and had a good curve. His k rate at same level was pretty much the same which makes baileys more impressive because strikeouts are up all over the leagues now. His speed was also more impressive as velocity has risen league wide over last 8 seasons.

    Clearly is recency effect if anyone thinks stephenson is obviously better than Bailey was. Bailey was 2nd highest ranked sp in all of milb. They are quite similar except Bailey was younger and higher ranked.
    Last edited by RadfordVA; 05-17-2014 at 08:48 AM.

  12. #39
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    What octane does he possess bailey did not? Bailey was throwing 97 and had a good curve. His k rate at same level was pretty much the same which makes baileys more impressive because strikeouts are up all over the leagues now. His speed was also more impressive as velocity has risen league wide over last 8 seasons.

    Clearly is recency effect if anyone thinks stephenson is obviously better than Bailey was. Bailey was 2nd highest ranked sp in all of milb. They are quite similar except Bailey was younger and higher ranked.
    Bailey worked about 2-3 mph slower than Stephenson does and his curve was not the dominator it got billed as (which is why he went to the slider). Stephenson's at the exact spot where Homer's K/9 dropped to the ~8.0 range.

    As for where Bailey got ranked, he got overhyped. Should have been in around #20 (which is still a hell of a good prospect).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If you have pitching you don't need MLB "star" talent. What exactly is a "star" though? There are guys with All-Star potential on the farm as position guys go. Whether they become that is a different question.
    Completely agree w/ the pitching Doug....which is why this team should be contenders for some time now. The formula was reversed in the lost decade, and while there may have been more bells and whistles, I'll gladly take the steady-as-you go solid rotation that keeps you in every game.

    As far as the 'star' comment.....not sure I can see depth at positions like ss/2b/c/ and even OF.
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  14. #41
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As for the theory behind why a guy gets in the top 10, I would argue that a designation that lofty means a kid is coming and coming fast. Not only does he have a super high ceiling, but there's very little that's going to get in his way of reaching it. Homer was 5-6 years away from getting anywhere near his ceiling when he ranked in the top 10.
    It's not like he was 5-6 years of steady improvement away from reaching his ceiling. Homer went into an absolute tailspin there for two or three years. Hard to expect anyone to see that coming.

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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Almost no organization has a prospect-laden AAA team. You've got to be loaded at the major league level in order to have prospects bottle up at AAA. Houston technically has a lot of prospects coming through AAA now, though we'll have to see whether their prospect/player ratio pans out (I'm skeptical about that organization, it's got a real KC vibe).

    Dayton actually strikes me as pretty interesting at the moment. Travieso is doing absolutely everything we could hope for at that moment (which is great). Same can be said for Guillon. Langfield is having a bawdy return so far. Daal is swiftly becoming a prospect. In fact, we might need to start talking about him as being on the Didi Gregorius path. Rahier is at least showing a pulse at the plate. For all his early struggles, Ervin's still got a high ceiling. And then there's Elizalde. Sure, he's playing in a league too low right now (might be two leagues too low), but .310/.460/.563 deserves some attention. If it was easy to do, Jeff Gelalich would be doing it.

    There's a lot of kids who could bust out in Billings this year (again I will note that the Reds really should get themselves a New York-Penn affiliate on top of Billings): Aristides Aquino, Kevin Garcia, Gabriel Rosa, Jose Ortiz, Kevin Franklin, Cory Thompson, Mark Armstrong, Ty Boyles, Jeremy Kivel, Tyler Mahle and Jackson Stephens. And there's a pile of DSL kids ticketed for the AZL Reds. I actually think it's a pretty active system right now.
    Wasn't looking for a product-laden team in AAA, but it's pretty rare to not even have one player who would be considered a Top 300 prospect.

    Probably nit-picking, because overall I'm satisfied with the current state of the Reds' farm system. I just think it's odd their AAA team is as uninteresting as it currently is.
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Wasn't looking for a product-laden team in AAA, but it's pretty rare to not even have one player who would be considered a Top 300 prospect.

    Probably nit-picking, because overall I'm satisfied with the current state of the Reds' farm system. I just think it's odd their AAA team is as uninteresting as it currently is.
    Looking at AAA rosters around the IL I have to conclude all teams keep a lot of AAAA guys and former big leaguers on call but the Reds do seem to be overboard on that. Indy, for instance has Mazzaro, Brigham and Polanco to go with non-prospect backups like Chris Dickerson. The Reds have - Tim Crabbe?
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    Re: Sickels Top 150 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    It's not like he was 5-6 years of steady improvement away from reaching his ceiling. Homer went into an absolute tailspin there for two or three years. Hard to expect anyone to see that coming.
    If you're a building inspector, your job is to spot the trap door in the floor. I think the fairest thing anyone can say about Homer is that he's complicated. He's actually a thoughtful guy and consistency eluded him for a long time. He isn't one of those guys who just strolls out to the mound and lets it fly. I think what some of his loftier rankings missed is some of that complication.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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