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Thread: What's wrong with Homer?

  1. #16
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Coming into tonight Homer actually had the 2nd best xFIP among starters on this team. I think he'll be ok. He's missing his spots a little too often and every time he does they seem to crush it. That will fix itself as the season goes on.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteRoseDay View Post
    He's honestly just not that great of a pitcher. Don't get me wrong. He's a solid #3, and even #2 on some lesser SP teams, but people expect way too much from him. His 2 no hitters set the expectations far too high. He does not have ace potential. He is what he is.
    I'd love to see the list of the 60 pitchers better than him that would make him a "solid #3" over the last two years.

  4. #18
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by NC-Red View Post
    watching his game today it's evident that Homer fools NOBODY. The Cardinals have hit him hard and he's lucky the Reds have made some nice plays to save runs from piling up on him. He just is a bad pitcher this season no way around it
    Homer Bailey has 50 strikeouts in 57 innings. I wish a lot more of our pitchers could not fool guys like that.

    Why is Homer struggling? .358 BABIP and a 17.3% HR/FB rate. Both of those are far higher than his career averages and even more high than his last three year averages since he went from an ok pitcher to the guy he is now. When those things even out, and they absolutely will, he is going to be the guy he was last year and the year before.

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  6. #19
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Homer Bailey has 50 strikeouts in 57 innings. I wish a lot more of our pitchers could not fool guys like that.

    Why is Homer struggling? .358 BABIP and a 17.3% HR/FB rate. Both of those are far higher than his career averages and even more high than his last three year averages since he went from an ok pitcher to the guy he is now. When those things even out, and they absolutely will, he is going to be the guy he was last year and the year before.
    When those things even out, Bailey will be a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy. In other words, a #3 starting pitcher.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #20
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    When those things even out, Bailey will be a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy. In other words, a #3 starting pitcher.
    Absolutely.....on the Reds right here and right now! Put him on a lot of other teams and he would be a #2 or even a #1. As a lifelong Reds fan, I find it refreshing to be haggling about Homer Bailey.
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Homer Bailey has 50 strikeouts in 57 innings. I wish a lot more of our pitchers could not fool guys like that.

    Why is Homer struggling? .358 BABIP and a 17.3% HR/FB rate. Both of those are far higher than his career averages and even more high than his last three year averages since he went from an ok pitcher to the guy he is now. When those things even out, and they absolutely will, he is going to be the guy he was last year and the year before.
    I agree....when the season is over Homer will have similar numbers to previous seasons. A rough start does not necessarily define a season.

  9. #22
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Homer Bailey has 50 strikeouts in 57 innings. I wish a lot more of our pitchers could not fool guys like that.

    Why is Homer struggling? .358 BABIP and a 17.3% HR/FB rate. Both of those are far higher than his career averages and even more high than his last three year averages since he went from an ok pitcher to the guy he is now. When those things even out, and they absolutely will, he is going to be the guy he was last year and the year before.
    Without checking some of his other peripherals (e.g. walk rate, strike %), I think this perspective cuts to most of his "issues" so far. Give it some time and let's see where he is later in the year.

  10. #23
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    When those things even out, Bailey will be a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy. In other words, a #3 starting pitcher.
    There are 60 starters in the bigs who are going to be better than that and throw 185+ innings? Heck, there were only 64 guys who even threw 180 innings last season.

    Homer Bailey is a lot better than people understand because they have some idea of what a "role" should be versus what reality tells us that it is. Homer Bailey is closer to being one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball than he is the 61st. Much closer.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 05-24-2014 at 09:13 PM.

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  12. #24
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There are 60 starters in the bigs who are going to be better than that and throw 185+ innings? Heck, there were only 64 guys who even threw 180 innings last season.

    Homer Bailey is a lot better than people understand because they have some idea of what a "role" should be versus what reality tells us that it is. Homer Bailey is closer to being one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball than he is the 61st. Much closer.
    The fact that there were only 64 pitchers who threw 180 innings says it all. That make Leake, Scott Feldman and Lance Lynn all solid #2 pitchers too.

    That's why counting how many pitchers are better than Homer a lousy way of determining how good he is. If you don't get hurt, and pitch a whole season or two, you're going to be in the top 50 starting pitchers or so. Many teams don't have a true #1 or even a true #2 starter on their staffs. There doesn't have to be 30 #1 starters, 30 #2 starters, 30 #3 starters, etc. in the majors in any one season.

    A #1 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) below 3, and can go toe to toe with any other pitcher in the majors.
    A #2 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 3.
    A #3 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 3.5
    A #4 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 4
    A #5 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 4.5

    There may be only 4 true #1 starters in the league at any one time, 7 #2's, and 15 #3's, but the definition doesn't change. The only thing that changes the definition of each type of starters is the run scoring environment each year.

    So it's not inconsistent to call Homer a true #3 starter, and say that there are only 30 pitchers better than him in the league.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #25
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Just who set those definitions 757690?

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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Just who set those definitions 757690?
    They are guesstimates. But that shouldn't matter much. We can argue about the accuracy of the numbers used, but it doesn't change the fact that when I say that a pitcher is a #2 starter, I'm saying that he will likely provide "X" amount of production, not that he's between the 30th and 60th best pitcher in the league.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #27
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    They are guesstimates. But that shouldn't matter much. We can argue about the accuracy of the numbers used, but it doesn't change the fact that when I say that a pitcher is a #2 starter, I'm saying that he will likely provide "X" amount of production, not that he's between the 30th and 60th best pitcher in the league.
    I understand your argument and agree with it to a degree. But doesn't IP figure into the equation somewhere? One of the most important things in the game is durability. I would also argue that your "definitions" don't factor in a curve. That is to say you are measured by the other pitchers that are out there and what they are doing.
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  16. #28
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    How 'bout he is just pressing from signing the big contract???

  17. #29
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Could be one of the things wrong with Votto, too. So strange to hear a 32-year-old cautioning everyone that he probably would never reach again the kind of power numbers he had 6-7 years ago. Take a look at the great players like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron...They had power into their late 30s. Frank Robinson won the AL Triple Crown and MVP after being traded by the Reds as an "old 31", per the GM. Could it be that huge pay packages are a big weight to carry? No doubt that Votto would have had a fine year if he had not been run too aggressively on the base paths. But it is odd that he is tacitly lowering his power goals at age 32. Could be that he is trying to mute the huge expectations of a huge pay package. As to Bailey, you know that Price must have had major input on the package. If so, its another reason to question his judgment...at least at this stage. Just another troubling call to me....
    Last edited by PostaKlu56; 05-28-2014 at 09:36 AM.

  18. #30
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Among 101 Qualified starters, Bailey ranks before tonight's game.

    38th in K/9
    77th in IP
    97th ERA
    100th in WHIP (.306 BAA)
    97th in OPS against (.846)

    IMO where he ranks high is grit and stones. Dials it up in later innings/pitch counts @95-97mph fastball.

    In 2013 Bailey ranked in the top 30 in those categories and I believe he will close the gap into a solid #2 starter hierarchy.
    Last edited by '69 & Vine; 05-28-2014 at 09:55 PM.


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