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Thread: What's wrong with Homer?

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The fact that there were only 64 pitchers who threw 180 innings says it all. That make Leake, Scott Feldman and Lance Lynn all solid #2 pitchers too.

    That's why counting how many pitchers are better than Homer a lousy way of determining how good he is. If you don't get hurt, and pitch a whole season or two, you're going to be in the top 50 starting pitchers or so. Many teams don't have a true #1 or even a true #2 starter on their staffs. There doesn't have to be 30 #1 starters, 30 #2 starters, 30 #3 starters, etc. in the majors in any one season.

    A #1 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) below 3, and can go toe to toe with any other pitcher in the majors.
    A #2 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 3.
    A #3 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 3.5
    A #4 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 4
    A #5 starter has an ERA (or FIP, or xFIP, take your pick) around 4.5

    There may be only 4 true #1 starters in the league at any one time, 7 #2's, and 15 #3's, but the definition doesn't change. The only thing that changes the definition of each type of starters is the run scoring environment each year.

    So it's not inconsistent to call Homer a true #3 starter, and say that there are only 30 pitchers better than him in the league.
    The definition needs to change. People are still working on the same set of criteria to define a #1, #2 and so on starter that they used when baseball had 14 teams. That doesn't work anymore. There are 30 teams. Each team uses a 5 man rotation. That means there are 150 starter positions available in the game of baseball at any given time.

    I'm not Frank Einstein or anything, but math tells us that the top 30 guys, evenly distributed to each team would be #1 guys, then the next 30 are #2 guys, the next 30 guys are #3 guys and the next 30 are #4 guys and the last 30 are #5 guys.

    When ideas don't jive with reality, then it's time to change the ideas. There may only be a handful of aces out there, but there are 30 #1 starters out there. It's math.

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  3. #32
    * Bat Votto Second * goreds2's Avatar
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    All of a sudden he is 6-3.
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteRoseDay View Post
    He's honestly just not that great of a pitcher. Don't get me wrong. He's a solid #3, and even #2 on some lesser SP teams, but people expect way too much from him. His 2 no hitters set the expectations far too high. He does not have ace potential. He is what he is.
    I think this is pretty spot on, except for the connotations of the statement that Homer is "just not that great of a pitcher." I think Homer is a very good starting pitcher, but I still think he's best defined as a solid #3 in one of the top level rotations. That's nothing to discount, and I'm very happy the Reds have him. My only concern would be if signing Homer was at the expense of Cueto. Homer is not, has never been, and will never be the pitcher Cueto is and has been. But I still really like Homer on the staff - you certainly don't have to hate one to love the other.

  5. #34
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    If you want to hem and haw about the definition of a #1, #2, etc....ok.

    But fill in the blank...

    Homer Bailey is the _____th best pitcher in baseball.

  6. #35
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    What was the question again? 7-3 and picking up steam. There is not a team in all of baseball that wouldn't love to have him.
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  7. #36
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    He gave up a run today and only pitched eight innings. That's just not acceptable given the contract he signed.

  8. #37
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If you want to hem and haw about the definition of a #1, #2, etc....ok.

    But fill in the blank...

    Homer Bailey is the _____th best pitcher in baseball.
    Coming into today, according to Fangraphs WAR, Homer was between the 112th and 132nd best pitcher in baseball. All of those nineteen those rankings had the same WAR: 0.3.

    I imagine that ranking went up today.

    Because pitchers we so volatile and injured so often, we really should only go year by year. There were only 79 pitchers who averaged 150 IP over 2012 and 2013. Do we really want to say that Bud Norris is a #2 pitcher simply because he didn't get injured over that period?

    Going by WAR, Bailey was a #1 last season, a #2 the season before, and a #4 the two prior seasons. He's around a #4 this season, but moving to be a #3.

    Personally, I would go by xFIP, which would make him a #3 or #4 every year, but I respect using WAR, even if. I don't like it personally.
    Last edited by 757690; 06-08-2014 at 05:02 PM.
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    His xFIP was 43rd in 2012 and 18th in 2013. He was 42nd in xFIP this year coming into today.

  10. #39
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlimJim11 View Post
    His xFIP was 43rd in 2012 and 18th in 2013. He was 42nd in xFIP this year coming into today.
    So the question to 767690 (who states he uses xFIP) is...

    In 2013, Homer Bailey was the _____ best pitcher in baseball and would be labeled as a #____ starter for 2013.

    Fill in the blanks with a single whole number. This is Redszone, no one said the questions are easy.

  11. #40
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlimJim11 View Post
    His xFIP was 43rd in 2012 and 18th in 2013. He was 42nd in xFIP this year coming into today.
    That's among qualified pitchers. I like to use all starting pitchers, as I explained earlier, since pitchers get injured so often, I don't penalize a pitcher for not getting a certain amount of starts in a season.

    Among all starting pitchers, here's Homer's ranking based on xFIP:

    2012: 89
    2013: 37
    2014: 68

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So the question to 767690 (who states he uses xFIP) is...

    In 2013, Homer Bailey was the _____ best pitcher in baseball and would be labeled as a #____ starter for 2013.

    Fill in the blanks with a single whole number. This is Redszone, no one said the questions are easy.
    ...37... #2 if you use the formula that Doug uses.

    I don't.
    Last edited by 757690; 06-08-2014 at 08:17 PM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #41
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So the question to 767690 (who states he uses xFIP) is...

    In 2013, Homer Bailey was the _____ best pitcher in baseball and would be labeled as a #____ starter for 2013.

    Fill in the blanks with a single whole number. This is Redszone, no one said the questions are easy.
    I don't buy into the argument that there are 30 #1 starters, 30 #2 starters, 30 #3 starters, etc, each season.

    Just like there aren't 30 true starting SS's, there aren't 30 true #1 starters, or 30 true #2 starters, etc. Just like not every team has a true starting SS, not every team has a true #1,2, or 3 starter. Some teams have nothing but #5 starters (2001-2005 Reds for instance). Some teams have 3 #1's, like the Dodgers might have this year. A pitcher is a true #X starting pitcher, not based on where he pitches in a team's rotation, or a how many starters are better or worse than him, but on how good he is.

    My definitions for these spots are more qualitative than quantitative, based on things like who I want in to start a playoff game, how many times a year the pitcher keeps the team in the game (some version of quality starts), how confident I am the team will win when he starts a game, etc.

    I think Homer Bailey profiles as a #3 pitcher. I don't want him to start a one game playoff. He keeps the team in the game around two thirds of the time that he starts, and I'm never confident that the team will win when he starts, since I never know which Homer will appear. Last year was his best year, and he was closer to a #2, but this year he's been a #3 or #4 so far.

    I doubt that will satisfy Redszone, but it's the best I can do. Unless you want me to argue something I don't believe, just for argument's sake
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #42
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's among qualified pitchers. I like to use all starting pitchers, as I explained earlier, since pitchers get injured so often, I don't penalize a pitcher for not getting a certain amount of starts in a season.

    Among all starting pitchers, here's Homer's ranking based on xFIP:

    2012: 89
    2013: 37
    2014: 68

    That's kind of a joke. 10 of those pitchers last year that you are using had under 30 IP. 4 of them had under 10 IP. Are we really using those guys to say Homer isn't a #2 or whatever you are saying he isn't?

  14. #43
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlimJim11 View Post
    That's kind of a joke. 10 of those pitchers last year that you are using had under 30 IP. 4 of them had under 10 IP. Are we really using those guys to say Homer isn't a #2 or whatever you are saying he isn't?
    We're talking about skill level, not production when we define pitchers by rotation spot. If a guys is that good for one game, he's that good. Period.

    Btw, that's one reason I don't use that system.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #44
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    We're talking about skill level, not production when we define pitchers by rotation spot. If a guys is that good for one game, he's that good. Period.

    Btw, that's one reason I don't use that system.
    Tom Browning has a perfect game. Pedro Martinez doesn't. One game doesn't mean jack.

  16. #45
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    Re: What's wrong with Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Tom Browning has a perfect game. Pedro Martinez doesn't. One game doesn't mean jack.
    Which is why I don't like using that system.

    Using qualified only pitchers incorrectly favors guys who were healthy, and penalizes guys who got hurt, or who were on a team with a deep rotation. For instance, Johnny Cueto was a #1 starting pitcher last year, but didn't pitch enough to qualify. He was good enough, and should count, but he's excluded. Tim Lincecum counts as #1 if you use qualified only pitchers, but only because there weren't that many pitchers that qualified. Bud Norris is a #2 for the same reason.

    No system is perfect, but I like mine, and respect you for liking yours better. I know most people don't agree me on this, and I'm fine with that.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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