It's time to "Blow it up".

[PepperJack]

Fair response. Could be though that somebody in the playoff hunt really wants a pitcher at the deadline and offers a great deal. Sometimes the deadline puts more pressure on teams to give up the farm, as they say.

Off season, sometimes there's less pressure.

Again, if the Reds aren't competitive at the deadline, I think it could be the beginning of a serious trade watch. Something to keep us interested, eh?

I agree that they have to see what the offers are in July. By then Latos may have a month of healthy starts, and be on the block himself. I really don't know what the consensus would be in other front offices about Cueto's long term outlook. Because when healthy he is a top pitcher in baseball, but I just don't know how highly he is viewed by other GMs.

I also agree that Broxton may bring a decent return if he can continue pitching as he is right now.


I don't see the Reds blowing it up as the OP suggests, nor do I think they need to. But a move or two to add to the nucleus in place, and free up some payroll could be something the front office should be looking to do going forward.

[Wonderful Monds]

Ok Wonderful, but, to play devil's advocate, what if the Reds can sign Leake for $75 million and Cueto demands $150 million? Reds have to consider who they reasonably can sign going forward.

Leake has not been injured, he doesn't overthrow, he could be a healthy pitcher for some time; he's probably cheaper to keep; and Cueto brings more of a return.

I agree, we'll have to see how it plays out, everything is on the table. But this is the next set of choices facing the front office and ownership.

That's all true, but I think that they are a better team with Cueto + LF gotten for Leake than keeping Leake and trading Cueto. I also don't think they need a HUGE return, the only real place to upgrade is at SS and LF. There's no real major upgrades at SS, at least not worth trading Cueto for (because you aren't going to get Tulowitszki), and trading Cueto for a LF is a huge overpay.

He will be very expensive yes, don't know if they can do yet another 100+ million contract, but he is also a top 5 pitcher, exponentially better than Leake.

[Wonderful Monds]

No way I'm trading Leake, his value and results are worth more than the value of what he would bring.

The FO has to think big for an upgrade in LF, and that will take a #1 or #2

I don't think that's true at all, I think trading a top pitcher for a LF is insane. Leake is the perfect amount of value for a LF.

[kaldaniels]

Agreed.

Anyone, what are some teams/LFer's who might fit the bill for a trade for Cueto?

Just a quick scan of the top-100 list. What about Joc Pederson (LA)? The Dodgers have many interesting pieces, and BP and Big Brox could come into play.

[villain612]

Just a quick scan of the top-100 list. What about Joc Pederson (LA)? The Dodgers have many interesting pieces, and BP and Big Brox could come into play.

I think the rest of the NL would loathe the Reds for adding Johnny Cueto to that rotation lol.

[Brutus]

The nucleus is fine. It's the supporting cast that needs help. They can retool instead of rebuild.

I would think about trading Cueto if they aren't going to sign him after next season. His value will never be higher. (Or Latos if he proves to be healthy enough to rebuild his value by the deadline, I'd try to sign who you don't trade)

Exactly. That's not blowing anything up. That's tweaking. I think 99 percent of this board agrees the club could use some tweaking.

[CrackerJack]

It's about mitigating risk and selling regular season tickets.

Watching the Reds' every year has become an experience similar to what eating at AppleBee's 5 nights a week would be like.

[corkedbat]

I'm not totally 100% against dealing Cueto, but the only way I do consider it would be if the Reds could set two-three other positions for the next decade. I'd want a solid young OFer with power and an MI with a top of the order bat at the very least and would prefer to also add a young arm to vie for his spot in rotation as well - even if I needed to sweeten the deal.

[nmculbreth]

The nucleus is fine. It's the supporting cast that needs help. They can retool instead of rebuild.

I would think about trading Cueto if they aren't going to sign him after next season. His value will never be higher. (Or Latos if he proves to be healthy enough to rebuild his value by the deadline, I'd try to sign who you don't trade)

That is pretty much the rub. The nucleus of the team is very good and in an ideal world you'd love to keep it together and simply add the missing pieces to make it a championship club, but with the lack of impact talent in the upper levels of the farm system and current finances it's tough to see a way forward that doesn't involve trading some of the core.

Cueto is definitely the big piece, he'd easily fetch the biggest return and starting pitching is the one area where the Reds seem to have impact talent in the high minors. Chapman is probably the second biggest trade chip, particularly if you can find a suitor that still believes that he can be a front line SP. I'd consider moving Leake as well, though I'd expect that the return for him would be much more modest. Afterward I'd shop Broxton, Parra and Marshall (probably wishful thinking) and see if I was able to add a couple extra pieces and free up a little more cash.

[villain612]

That is pretty much the rub. The nucleus of the team is very good and in an ideal world you'd love to keep it together and simply add the missing pieces to make it a championship club, but with the lack of impact talent in the upper levels of the farm system and current finances it's tough to see a way forward that doesn't involve trading some of the core.

Cueto is definitely the big piece, he'd easily fetch the biggest return and starting pitching is the one area where the Reds seem to have impact talent in the high minors. Chapman is probably the second biggest trade chip, particularly if you can find a suitor that still believes that he can be a front line SP. I'd consider moving Leake as well, though I'd expect that the return for him would be much more modest. Afterward I'd shop Broxton, Parra and Marshall (probably wishful thinking) and see if I was able to add a couple extra pieces and free up a little more cash.

I'd be open to a Chapman trade too. He's soon going to be a luxury we can't afford, even though I like the guy.

The nucleus of the team is strong, and with the money we have invested in Votto, we aren't going to sell the farm during his prime years. I still think this team has playoff talent or at least close to it. Just seem to be one or two moves away.

I think a lot depends on Frazier and Mesoraco too. Are their starts the new norm or just fast starts?

[Benihana]

The nucleus is fine. It's the supporting cast that needs help. They can retool instead of rebuild.

I would think about trading Cueto if they aren't going to sign him after next season. His value will never be higher. (Or Latos if he proves to be healthy enough to rebuild his value by the deadline, I'd try to sign who you don't trade)

Agree with this completely. I'd take the next month to gauge what it will cost to extend Latos and what it will cost to extend Cueto, and extend whichever is cheaper. If they'll both sign for Bailey money, I'd sign both. Otherwise sign one and trade the other.

However BEFORE I did that, Id aggressively shop both Alfredo Simon and Mike Leake. I agree with the retool rather than reload statement. This team has two primary flaws: there is not enough offense coming out of LF and SS given the rest of the lineup. However the rest of the lineup is pretty much set for the next few years. Jesse Winker is the LF of the future, but he is probably two years away. I would give this team one more month to go on a tear and turn things around. However it would have to be an absolute year and I wouldn't count on it- mainly because I don't think this team has the offense it needs to contend for a Pennant, even when healthy (which it's clearly not). So assuming the team doesn't go 20-7 over the next month, I'd aggressively shop both Leake and Simon in an attempt to significantly upgrade LF and SS. I'd include names like Cozart, Y.Rodriguez, Lively, Moscot and even Brandon Phillips of you could find a taker. I'd be targeting names like Joc Pederson, Mookie Betts, Deven Marrero, Nick Franklin, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Schoop, and Addison Russell. I'd even check in on the recently displaced Xander Bogaerts and the injured Jurickson Profar- just because you never know. If and only if the Reds are completely underwhelmed with the offers they're getting for Leake and Simon, I'd consider moving Cueto (if you know you can re-sign Latos). While it is true that you're probably punting not only this year but next year of you deal Johnny, the Reds will not be able to compete without significant offensive upgrades- particularly in LF and SS. And unless they're going to make a run at Drew, Lowrie or Hardy this offseason, which I doubt they can do and still afford to extend Latos/Cueto, the help has got to come via trade.

A name like Cueto will surely pique the A's interest on Russell, the Sox on Bogaerts or the Rangers on Profar- but hopefully Walt can find the right guy for Leake and/or Simon first. Latos is coming back for Simon's spot anyway and Stephenson should be able to man Leake's spot in the rotation in 2015 and beyond.

[KronoRed]

...the hell is that?

[Benihana]

Just a quick scan of the top-100 list. What about Joc Pederson (LA)? The Dodgers have many interesting pieces, and BP and Big Brox could come into play.

I'd rather float a Brandon Phillips + one of Leake/Simon for Joc Pederson and Alexander Guerrero (and his ear). That would get the Reds significantly younger and cheaper with much better offense. I really wish the Reds would've signed Guerrero this offseason.

I'd throw in Big Brox too if they wanted.

[kaldaniels]

I'd rather float a Brandon Phillips + one of Leake/Simon for Joc Pederson and Alexander Guerrero (and his ear). That would get the Reds significantly younger and cheaper with much better offense. I really wish the Reds would've signed Guerrero this offseason.

I'd throw in Big Brox too if they wanted.

Absolutely I'd do that. I don't think the Dodgers would target Simon/Leake however.

The proposal would not be Cueto for Joc straight up. He was just the outfield centerpiece I was looking for. I'd try to be creative.

[OGB]

Sure, let's blow up a nucleus that has gotten to the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years and has several younger players in the middle of, or at the brink of, their prime under contract for several more seasons all because one injury-riddled season has them playing poorly one third of a way through one season.

Sounds reasonable.

People like the OP don't consider the fact that we've been watching competitive baseball for years now. The Astros "blew it up" years ago and are still looking at 2016 as probably the first year they'll have even a chance to be competitive. Even then, it's not a given. If half their top prospects pan out that still might not be enough to make the playoffs by 2018. Mike Trout is the exception. Most top prospects take a few years to fully realize their potential if they ever do.
Starting from scratch is a good way to ensure watching last place baseball for 5-10 years unless you already have a great farm system or you get really lucky.