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Thread: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

  1. #526
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    So if one was to make an optimistic argument in favor of this draft, I suppose it would be:

    1. The one area where the Reds have been absolutely fantastic is drafting college relievers (particularly those with very good fastballs) and converting them to starters. Cingrani and Lorenzen (early, but looks great) are prime examples. I know some will say it wasn't necessarily a need. But if Howard pans out, a 98 MPH throwing young starter is the type of commodity that can get you whatever it is you need in a trade. If you feel like you've maybe found a market inefficiency, continue to exploit it until other teams catch on. Plus, if this is an area that you feel like your minor league instructors excel and are well equipped to handle, perhaps is is both a market inefficiency and an area that your organization and knowledge actually adds value to this type of player more than others.

    2. With Blandino, obviously the hitting and upside is a question. However, I think perhaps the more important question is his defense. If he can stick at SS or at least 2B, that really lowers the bar in terms of what is considered acceptable with the bat. If the Reds are correct that he can play a passable middle IF, then all of a sudden it looks more like a bat that can play. Who knows how long we will stick with Phillips. And I don't see a 2B coming anywhere on the horizon in the system that looks like a starter. Maybe Blandino becomes the heir apparent at 2B and makes Phillips expendable? With the pitching we have short and long term and a potentially strong middle of the order (Votto, Bruce, Mez, Frazier) we need a couple guys who are cheap and at least decent starters in the middle infield. With the current roster, maybe a 50% chance of landing a decent (if unspectacular) MLB starter is better than a 2% chance at landing a superstar.

    3. With Sparks, the tools are there and I can see the upside. It's just a question of if he can learn to take a smarter approach. His swing looks like a 1st round type of swing. After playing it somewhat safe with the first 2 picks, this looks a little bit more like a swing for the fences type of pick even though it's a college player.
    Last edited by Drugs Delaney; 06-06-2014 at 03:05 AM.

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  4. #527
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    You do know there's hours of video and pages of articles on the top 200 picks, right? It's quite the leap to just assume anyone just picks names off a list and likes the sound of them. Maybe a lot do. But do consider the broad stroke brush your painting with.
    A 30-second clip and articles do not experts make.

    But let's be honest, most people are not watching videos on more than a handful of guys and certainly not enough to formulate a very educated opinion without context of having seen all of them a significant amount.

    The bigger point, regardless of whether you want to take issue with certain rhetoric used in my illustration, is that people aren't qualified to judge these selections on draft day. Have an opinion, sure, but admit the opinion really is based on not much more than conjecture. Even if you've watched 1-minute videos of each of the top 60 prospects, does that really qualify you to make comments such as:

    "Pathetic draft"

    It's a total crapshoot. Even if you've watched these 30-second videos on each prospect, you're really not educated enough to criticize much. I mean these MLB teams are watching players for months, sometimes years and still don't see eye to eye on prospects. Yet we're supposed to believe someone can criticize how well a team drafted because they hop on MLB or Perfect Game and watch a few videos and read a few articles?

    Like I said, everyone is entitled to an opinion on how players might turn out, but if one is honest and admits we really have no earthly clue, we can't in the same breath say what the Reds "should" have done.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  6. #528
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Brutus you nailed it. None of us have spent untold hours poring over videos of these guys, traveling to watch them, seeing them in camp and clinics, interviewing them - all through the lens of years of pro baseball experience in scouting and grading players. It's fun to have an opinion but "jump off a cliff" attitudes are just silly. In the years following the draft on Redszone, I've seen moaning and gnashing because player X wasn't the pick. Then seen that guy flop. Sometimes guys have been right but with Buckley's top picks it has usually been a matter of degree because most of his picks in the top couple rounds have been solid.

    One thing I've wondered about, though, is how the Reds grade against other teams in producing players after the third round. Going back just for the Reds the pickings are slim. It'd take some time to look at all teams and compare. Have there been any comps anyone knows of how teams fare AFTER the first three rounds? I've seen the overall comps where the Reds fare pretty well when counting the top three picks. Seems that baseball picks 40 rounds but after the third round it is mostly an exercise in filling the minor leagues rather than actually expecting to get bona fide major league possibilities. That bias even seems to show when a team is promoting and moving guys along the ladder. If you're drafted high you get moved, often at the expense of a lower pick who is out producing by the numbers.
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    A 30-second clip and articles do not experts make.

    But let's be honest, most people are not watching videos on more than a handful of guys and certainly not enough to formulate a very educated opinion without context of having seen all of them a significant amount.

    The bigger point, regardless of whether you want to take issue with certain rhetoric used in my illustration, is that people aren't qualified to judge these selections on draft day. Have an opinion, sure, but admit the opinion really is based on not much more than conjecture. Even if you've watched 1-minute videos of each of the top 60 prospects, does that really qualify you to make comments such as:

    "Pathetic draft"

    It's a total crapshoot. Even if you've watched these 30-second videos on each prospect, you're really not educated enough to criticize much. I mean these MLB teams are watching players for months, sometimes years and still don't see eye to eye on prospects. Yet we're supposed to believe someone can criticize how well a team drafted because they hop on MLB or Perfect Game and watch a few videos and read a few articles?

    Like I said, everyone is entitled to an opinion on how players might turn out, but if one is honest and admits we really have no earthly clue, we can't in the same breath say what the Reds "should" have done.


    I don't mind the draft at all. I really thought the Reds would go High School players with their first 2 or 3 picks, then load up on college pitching in the 3rd and 4th rounds where they have done well recently with the likes of Cingrani, Moscot and Lively.

    First off, with the success of 1st round picks over the past half decade, we really shouldn't be questioning the Reds and should give them the benefit of the doubt. I know I had my preferences of some High School guys like Adams, Davidson, Chavis and Wall--- but I understand the Reds logic.

    They were looking for a college pitcher with their first pick. Done, got it. Next they were looking for a middle infielder, basically a 2B. Chavis was off the board, and they may have removed Wall from their board because of his labrum injury. They decided they wanted a 2B with their next pick, and the next best one was Blandino. Ok, fair enough.

    Pick of Sparks? No idea-- the farm is littered with 3B at the lower levels--- SMB, Rahier, Franklin. So for the 3rd draft in a row, the Reds take a 3B with their 2nd round pick. (Rahier and Franklin) Honestly, I didn't have Sparks anywhere in my top 50, so I haven't been able to see/read much about him in the past 12 hours after his selection. It's not like 3B is a huge position of need, Frazier isn't a FA until after 2017, and the Reds have 3 guys @ lower levels that were recent draft picks.

    Me personally-- I'll admit, I love drafting pitching, as you can never have enough pitching. I would have liked to see the Reds take another pitcher in round 2 instead of Sparks. With Leake, Cueto and Latos all being FA after next year-- I would like to see more pitching in the system. The Reds can't assume that they can sign 1, and then 1 or 2 of Stephenson, Lively, Moscot or Lorenzen will be ready for the rotation by then. Some may bomb in AAA or get injured along the way.

    It kills me though-- in a strong prep class, the Reds go College, College, College with their picks. Always take advantage of what the draft offers. Like next year, when there is a better crop of HS SS's available.

    In the end, it's wait and see. With the Reds track record of 1st rounders-- just be happy with whomever they select and hope they turn out to be successful. I'm hoping Howard and Blandino turn out very, very well.

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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    I don't mind the draft at all. I really thought the Reds would go High School players with their first 2 or 3 picks, then load up on college pitching in the 3rd and 4th rounds where they have done well recently with the likes of Cingrani, Moscot and Lively.

    First off, with the success of 1st round picks over the past half decade, we really shouldn't be questioning the Reds and should give them the benefit of the doubt. I know I had my preferences of some High School guys like Adams, Davidson, Chavis and Wall--- but I understand the Reds logic.

    They were looking for a college pitcher with their first pick. Done, got it. Next they were looking for a middle infielder, basically a 2B. Chavis was off the board, and they may have removed Wall from their board because of his labrum injury. They decided they wanted a 2B with their next pick, and the next best one was Blandino. Ok, fair enough.

    Pick of Sparks? No idea-- the farm is littered with 3B at the lower levels--- SMB, Rahier, Franklin. So for the 3rd draft in a row, the Reds take a 3B with their 2nd round pick. (Rahier and Franklin) Honestly, I didn't have Sparks anywhere in my top 50, so I haven't been able to see/read much about him in the past 12 hours after his selection. It's not like 3B is a huge position of need, Frazier isn't a FA until after 2017, and the Reds have 3 guys @ lower levels that were recent draft picks.

    Me personally-- I'll admit, I love drafting pitching, as you can never have enough pitching. I would have liked to see the Reds take another pitcher in round 2 instead of Sparks. With Leake, Cueto and Latos all being FA after next year-- I would like to see more pitching in the system. The Reds can't assume that they can sign 1, and then 1 or 2 of Stephenson, Lively, Moscot or Lorenzen will be ready for the rotation by then. Some may bomb in AAA or get injured along the way.

    It kills me though-- in a strong prep class, the Reds go College, College, College with their picks. Always take advantage of what the draft offers. Like next year, when there is a better crop of HS SS's available.

    In the end, it's wait and see. With the Reds track record of 1st rounders-- just be happy with whomever they select and hope they turn out to be successful. I'm hoping Howard and Blandino turn out very, very well.
    That's a good take. Personally I don't think Sparks sticks at 3b, or at least doesn't need to. I can see him much more readily in RF/LF from a body standpoint.
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Because they drafted names you've heard of before this week and were ranked a few spots higher on the subjective ranking charts by guys who don't have as high of accuracy at predicting success as the people who are employed by baseball clubs?

    Honestly, and we're all guilty of it, any celebrating or criticizing of a draft at this point in the process is utterly baseless. It's wholly based on whether we've convinced ourselves certain names sound like guys that will wind up being stars based on the limited scouting reports we've seen.
    In this case it's more philosophy than the specific names. The Brewers went for monster upside. They picked a LHP with electric stuff, a kid with absurd power potential and probably the best athlete in the draft. That could go wrong. Medeiros' arm could blow up, Gatewood might never make enough contact to manifest his power and Harrison could go to Nebraska to play football.

    The Brewers went after raw ability while the Reds went after more polish. I agree it's way too early to make sweeping statements about the quality of the two drafts. However, I like the Brewers' approach and I think it's more likely to net them star talent. The Reds clearly saw something in some guys who were a little lower on the collective radar. Howard was a toolsy college arm pick. Blandino's been a solid player everywhere he's been. Sparks has the kid of frame that could unleash some serious power. Probably what has people wary is the Reds' recent track record with college bats. Outside of Frazier there's not much to brag about. Blandino might have Chris Valaikas dancing in the heads of some folks. Sparks might have some minds wandering to Mark Schramek (not the current regime's fault, but it leaves a scar on your psyche).

    Anyway, the Brewers took goosebumps pick because those kids allow you to dream of something big. The Reds' picks are going to need to drop some serious performance before anyone gets overly dreamy about them. Or, to put it another way, we want to buy those Brewers jeans.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #532
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Stanford plays in ten minutes on ESPN, where we can watch our 1st Round pick, Alex Blandino.

    UC-Irvine plays at 9:30 EST tonight.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 06-06-2014 at 02:18 PM.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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  15. #533
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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    In this case it's more philosophy than the specific names. The Brewers went for monster upside. They picked a LHP with electric stuff, a kid with absurd power potential and probably the best athlete in the draft. That could go wrong. Medeiros' arm could blow up, Gatewood might never make enough contact to manifest his power and Harrison could go to Nebraska to play football.

    The Brewers went after raw ability while the Reds went after more polish. I agree it's way too early to make sweeping statements about the quality of the two drafts. However, I like the Brewers' approach and I think it's more likely to net them star talent. The Reds clearly saw something in some guys who were a little lower on the collective radar. Howard was a toolsy college arm pick. Blandino's been a solid player everywhere he's been. Sparks has the kid of frame that could unleash some serious power. Probably what has people wary is the Reds' recent track record with college bats. Outside of Frazier there's not much to brag about. Blandino might have Chris Valaikas dancing in the heads of some folks. Sparks might have some minds wandering to Mark Schramek (not the current regime's fault, but it leaves a scar on your psyche).

    Anyway, the Brewers took goosebumps pick because those kids allow you to dream of something big. The Reds' picks are going to need to drop some serious performance before anyone gets overly dreamy about them. Or, to put it another way, we want to buy those Brewers jeans.
    All of that is fair. But in the Reds' case, they did take a kid that was popping 98 on the radar gun at the end of the year. Who's to say he has any less potential than the others? When you're throwing 98 with a decent offspeed pitch like he apparently has too, then it seems to me there's a pretty high ceiling for him as well.

    Personally, while I would like a team to draft some high potential players, I would be leery of drafting too many of those raw types. Yes, they have some big booms but they also have more frequent busts. I'd rather get one or two guys with high ceilings in a draft and get a lot of quality guys that could move but very likely assure me of filling depth in the system. I suppose it also depends on the situation the system is in, so a one-size fits all approach isn't necessarily a good idea.

    I get what you're saying and I think it's fair. I don't think others have been quite as grounded about it, though. It's one thing to have a preference like you've stated. It's another to say the Reds simply got it wrong.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Kyle Schwarber tearing up Short season A ball at Boise:
    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=656941

    5 games, 9 hits, 3 HR, 9 RBI
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    Re: Official 2014 MLB Draft Day One Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    Kyle Schwarber tearing up Short season A ball at Boise:
    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=656941

    5 games, 9 hits, 3 HR, 9 RBI
    Cubs have an embarrassment of hitting prospects.
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