2014 MLB Draft - Reds Picks and Signings

[Benihana]

I think it was very clear what the Reds were doing with Lorenzen last year: Convincing him that pitching was his future to the big leagues instead of hitting.

They talked a big game of letting him do both, then rushed him through four levels to reach Double-A in his first year, never getting more than a few innings at any level. It was all about getting him close, so he could taste things as a pitcher and so they could use him how they envisioned without much resistance on his part.

Yeah but the more important point is they wouldn't do that if he wasn't ready to pitch at those levels. What would be the point of fast-tracking him if he got rocked? Wouldn't that have the opposite effect and completely shatter his confidence in his pitching ability, making him want to be a hitter?

Based on draft status alone, Howard should be on par or even ahead of where Lorenzen was, considering he's been more of a full-time pitcher than Lorenzen was, and was drafted 19 spots higher (in a reportedly deeper draft). Of course not suggesting he will have the same kind of success or future prospects as Lorenzen, as the latter has clearly flourished - above most expectations. However, if you go off of 12 month plan, I think it's reasonable to assume they might be handled similarly. At least that's how I'd do it anyway (not that that has ever swayed the Reds in the past).

[dougdirt]

Yeah but the more important point is they wouldn't do that if he wasn't ready to pitch at those levels. What would be the point of fast-tracking him if he got rocked? Wouldn't that have the opposite effect and completely shatter his confidence in his pitching ability, making him want to be a hitter?

Based on draft status alone, Howard should be on par or even ahead of where Lorenzen was, considering he's been more of a full-time pitcher than Lorenzen was, and was drafted 19 spots higher (in a reportedly deeper draft). Of course not suggesting he will have the same kind of success or future prospects as Lorenzen, as the latter has clearly flourished - above most expectations. However, if you go off of 12 month plan, I think it's reasonable to assume they might be handled similarly. At least that's how I'd do it anyway (not that that has ever swayed the Reds in the past).

He did get rocked though. In Bakersfield and Pensacola he threw 11.2 innings with 11 walks and 11 strikeouts to go along with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.97. Then they sent him to the Arizona Fall League where those numbers looked good in comparison as he was obliterated. It worked out in the long run because he has been quite strong this year, but once he left Dayton last year he was beat around pretty darn good.

[Benihana]

He did get rocked though. In Bakersfield and Pensacola he threw 11.2 innings with 11 walks and 11 strikeouts to go along with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.97. Then they sent him to the Arizona Fall League where those numbers looked good in comparison as he was obliterated. It worked out in the long run because he has been quite strong this year, but once he left Dayton last year he was beat around pretty darn good.

So "it's pretty clear" the Reds fast-tracked him to get rocked and that built his confidence in wanting to pitch?

Then they decided to start him in AA despite a really bad debut and even worse offseason (presumably so he could keep getting rocked?) and he shocked the world by turning it around.

Sorry I'm not following.

[dougdirt]

So "it's pretty clear" the Reds fast-tracked him to get rocked and that built his confidence in wanting to pitch?

Then they decided to start him in AA despite a really bad debut and even worse offseason (presumably so he could keep getting rocked?) and he shocked the world by turning it around.

Sorry I'm not following.

Last year they fast tracked him to get him close to the Majors. It was nothing more than that. They started him in Double-A because he showed in spring training he was ready to be there and why "demote him" if he looked like he could handle it?

[Benihana]

Last year they fast tracked him to get him close to the Majors. It was nothing more than that. They started him in Double-A because he showed in spring training he was ready to be there and why "demote him" if he looked like he could handle it?

My point is, historically in the Buckley system these college reliever-to-starter conversion guys move fast. They have been -by far- the fastest moving guys in the system - Stewart, Cingrani, and now Lorenzen. Of course a big part of that is that they've been successful at each level, but part of it is the profile. Even though the Reds don't need Howard to move that quickly given the organizational strength in starting pitching, it will be interesting to follow how fast he does move, and what if any impact that may have on what level they start him.

[Gallen5862]

Baseball America has Jose Lopez signing for $85,000 and Brian O'Grady signing for $10,000.

[JaxRed]

Baseball America has Jose Lopez signing for $85,000 and Brian O'Grady signing for $10,000.

We have our sacrificial lamb.

[RedTeamGo!]

8.245 - Brian O'Grady 1B Rutgers U New Brunswick Slot Value $155,900 SB $10,000

Ouch. I bet that was quite the negotiation.

Reds: $10,000
O'Grady: b..b..but, slot value is $155,900
Reds: $10,000
O'Grady: I am a good ballplayer, I deserve at least .....$80,000
Reds: $10,000
O'Grady: Now, hold on just a second here...
Reds: $8,000
O'Grady: Ok! OK! $10,000!!! ::whimper::

[Benihana]

Did Shane Mardirosian sign?

[RedTeamGo!]

I believe so

[dougdirt]

My point is, historically in the Buckley system these college reliever-to-starter conversion guys move fast. They have been -by far- the fastest moving guys in the system - Stewart, Cingrani, and now Lorenzen. Of course a big part of that is that they've been successful at each level, but part of it is the profile. Even though the Reds don't need Howard to move that quickly given the organizational strength in starting pitching, it will be interesting to follow how fast he does move, and what if any impact that may have on what level they start him.

Cingrani and Stewart, like Howard, aren't really a reliever to starter conversion. Cingrani started three of four years in college. Zach Stewart started two out of three years in college. Howard started two of three years in college. Lorenzen is a lot different from those guys. He never started.

[redsof72]

20 and 21 have signed as well.

[RED VAN HOT]

Actually, the way I read it, Howard did not start in his freshman year, only his sophomore year.

http://www.virginiasports.com/sports.../teamcume.html

Keith Law's draft assessment coupled with Howard's removal from starting in his junior year at a school known for pitching, raises some concern that the Reds may have simply used their #1 on a reliever.

[dougdirt]

Actually, the way I read it, Howard did not start in his freshman year, only his sophomore year.

http://www.virginiasports.com/sports.../teamcume.html

Keith Law's draft assessment coupled with Howard's removal from starting in his junior year at a school known for pitching, raises some concern that the Reds may have simply used their #1 on a reliever.

You are right that Howard didn't start his freshman year. That's on me.

As for Keith Law.... I will take the word of the guys working for a Major League Baseball team over the guy working at ESPN.

[JaxRed]

I've updated the Spreadsheet with with bonus data for Lopez and O'Brien. And if Redsof72 says 20 and 21 are signed, that good enough for me to update the Spreadsheet. (Even though he won't tell me who he is).