Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

[treetops]

The BP list also linked to a couple of scouting reports from Ethan Purser. Conclusions below, sub to BP for the full reports

Stephenson :

Stephenson is a special arm, one with the potential to have two high-end pitches with the fastball and curveball. Along with the below-average changeup, the command profile is the bugaboo currently and will very likely be an issue going forward. It's easy to see the enormous potential in the arsenal, but in this outing, Stephenson looked the part of a mid-rotation starter who flashes front-of-the-rotation stuff but lacks the command profile to anchor a rotation. Though he's currently in Double-A, Stephenson needs a good bit of time to develop and refine his arsenal. An appearance at the highest level in the latter part of 2015 would not be a surprise with a shot at a rotation spot the following season fully in his sights.

Lorenzen:

Previously billed as a bullpen candidate due to the lack of a playable changeup and a funky delivery, Lorenzen has made huge strides across the board this season, and after this start, I believe in Lorenzen as a starting pitcher going forward. He showed a rounded four-pitch arsenal, three of which could be used as swing-and-miss/weak-contact offerings at the highest level. The command profile will never be above-average, and despite some mechanical red flags, Lorenzen has top-of-the-charts athleticism and should be able to repeat his delivery in a manner that would be conducive to average command. The stuff is electric and he will likely tease with more, but Lorenzen should settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter, a huge developmental win for the Reds.

He also did a report on Lively:

Lively has good stuff across the board and, perhaps more importantly, shows good pitchability with realistic room for growth in this department. He goes into at-bats with a plan, executes, and pitches with major confidence, wanting to shove the fastball down hitters' throats. The fastball, while not a crazy weapon in terms of pure velocity, plays up due to its sneakiness and gives the pitcher a weapon going forward. The secondary arsenal is highlighted by the potential above-average slider, and while the curveball and changeup only project to average at the highest level, Lively should be able to deploy these pitches with confidence and keep hitters guessing with a few minor refinements. Overall, Lively looks like a good bet to blossom into a mid-rotation workhorse, a great outcome from a fourth-round selection. He should be ready sometime in 2015.

[membengal]

Boy, those are three write-ups to put a spring in your step.

[RedlegJake]

Here are some guys I see as rising this year. I left out the big names, the Bob Steves, Livelys and Lorenzens, Winkers and SMBs for the guys who get less notice or are new to the "big 3" - Dayton, Bakersfield and Pensacola.
I concentrated on Bakersfield, Dayton and Pensacola for a couple of reasons. Louisville is mostly retreads, chaff and pretty well known commodities. Billings is full of hopeful raw kids but the short season, first pro experience and the hitting environment often skews things. Love to watch Billings and speculate but don't put stock in it until they get to Dayton. AZL and the Dominican Leagues are too far away yet. Let those guys rise in their time. From Dayton, through Bakersfield and on to Pensacola are the guys I am imminently interested in.

Rising
Pitchers
Carlos Gonzalez, Pensacola/Bakersfield 0.70 era 38.1IP 21H 11BB 40Ks. RH reliever turning some heads with his 2014 performance across 2 levels, .156 BA against in Cal League and .160 against so far in Southern League.

Zack Weiss, Dayton 1.41 era 38.1IP 34H 12 BB 46Ks all in relief. So-so in Billings last year he has been dominant out of the pen in Dayton. Will he begin starting at some point?

Jackson Stevens 2.79 era 19.1IP 19H 6BB 20Ks another 20 y/o. Numbers don't include his latest start which was his most impressive outing yet. Pretty highly rated already, his stock rises on answering some doubts whether he would be healthy as well as the performances.

Dan Langfield, Dayton 2.62 era 34.1IP 22H 18BB 49Ks Coming back from injury Dan has reasserted his place as a special prospect. Control is a bit troubling but his stock jumps on an otherwise great return

Nolan Becker, Dayton 1.20 era 15IP 7H 3BB 15Ks lefty reliever could move up fairly quick as a LOOGY candidate out of Yale

Hitters
Sean Buckley, Dayton/Bakersfield - He slashed .185/.240/.304/.544 in Dayton and got promoted, likely due to age/level. In Bakersfield and it's friendly confines his slash is .375/.403/.653/.1.055 He did have a nice debut with Billings, slowed a bit at Dayton because of a lingering appendectomy and was injured much of 2013 (elbow). But his stock has definitely risen again. He graded high in the power tool and maybe he's finally healthy enough to display it. If he keeps hitting he'll move quickly. Mattair ahead of him isn't going to hold him back.

Sebastian Elizalde, Dayton/Bakersfield .310/.428/.482/.910 He's actually started slowly at Bakersfield. He's "only" OPSing .831 He can hit plain and simple. Walks at a high clip, drives the ball.

Juan Silva. Bakersfield .310/.421/.437/.858 Looks good but it is the Cal League. Still he's gained a bump in my book.

Junior Arias, Bakersfield .394/.459/.606/1.066 OK - that's flippin ridiculous even for Cal! Man I wish he hadn't gotten hurt!

Jon Matthews, Bakersfield/Dayton .331/.418/.411/.829 17 sb - speedy outfielder is hitting, hitting, hitting. Not a power guy. Potential 2 hole to Billy's leadoff someday? Certainly raising his profile

Tanner Rahier, Dayton .288/.337/.424/.761 6 homers. Not eye popping numbers but enough improvement to boost his stock certainly.

Carlton Daal, Dayton .301/.338/.346/.684 He can hit albeit without much power but it's good enough for a SS. The bugaboo here is whether he gets the throwing down - too many errors. Bat has raised his stock. Fielding has raised the question marks.

Jose Ortiz, Dayton .304/.360/.652/.1.012 Although his season has just gotten started he's already ripping the cover off the ball. Pioneer numbers are no mirage with this guy it seems.

Rossmel Perez, Pensacola .319/.373/.445/.818 Where the heck did this come from? Lefty hitting catcher has raised his stock although I'm not sure if this is just a mirage. Nothing in his career so far would indicate these numbers were coming. If it's for real then one whale of a pickup.

Kyle Waldrop, Pensacola/Bakersfield .346/.399/.506/.906 is Penscola stats are down but only to a reasonable level (.819) - his Cal League numbers were ridiculous. Really rising in my book, maybe a dark horse LF candidate, certainly pushing his way into the 4th OFer speculation for the near future.

[Drugs Delaney]

Here are some guys I see as rising this year. I left out the big names, the Bob Steves, Livelys and Lorenzens, Winkers and SMBs for the guys who get less notice or are new to the "big 3" - Dayton, Bakersfield and Pensacola.
I concentrated on Bakersfield, Dayton and Pensacola for a couple of reasons. Louisville is mostly retreads, chaff and pretty well known commodities. Billings is full of hopeful raw kids but the short season, first pro experience and the hitting environment often skews things. Love to watch Billings and speculate but don't put stock in it until they get to Dayton. AZL and the Dominican Leagues are too far away yet. Let those guys rise in their time. From Dayton, through Bakersfield and on to Pensacola are the guys I am imminently interested in.

Rising
Pitchers
Carlos Gonzalez, Pensacola/Bakersfield 0.70 era 38.1IP 21H 11BB 40Ks. RH reliever turning some heads with his 2014 performance across 2 levels, .156 BA against in Cal League and .160 against so far in Southern League.

Zack Weiss, Dayton 1.41 era 38.1IP 34H 12 BB 46Ks all in relief. So-so in Billings last year he has been dominant out of the pen in Dayton. Will he begin starting at some point?

Jackson Stevens 2.79 era 19.1IP 19H 6BB 20Ks another 20 y/o. Numbers don't include his latest start which was his most impressive outing yet. Pretty highly rated already, his stock rises on answering some doubts whether he would be healthy as well as the performances.

Dan Langfield, Dayton 2.62 era 34.1IP 22H 18BB 49Ks Coming back from injury Dan has reasserted his place as a special prospect. Control is a bit troubling but his stock jumps on an otherwise great return

Nolan Becker, Dayton 1.20 era 15IP 7H 3BB 15Ks lefty reliever could move up fairly quick as a LOOGY candidate out of Yale

Hitters
Sean Buckley, Dayton/Bakersfield - He slashed .185/.240/.304/.544 in Dayton and got promoted, likely due to age/level. In Bakersfield and it's friendly confines his slash is .375/.403/.653/.1.055 He did have a nice debut with Billings, slowed a bit at Dayton because of a lingering appendectomy and was injured much of 2013 (elbow). But his stock has definitely risen again. He graded high in the power tool and maybe he's finally healthy enough to display it. If he keeps hitting he'll move quickly. Mattair ahead of him isn't going to hold him back.

Sebastian Elizalde, Dayton/Bakersfield .310/.428/.482/.910 He's actually started slowly at Bakersfield. He's "only" OPSing .831 He can hit plain and simple. Walks at a high clip, drives the ball.

Juan Silva. Bakersfield .310/.421/.437/.858 Looks good but it is the Cal League. Still he's gained a bump in my book.

Junior Arias, Bakersfield .394/.459/.606/1.066 OK - that's flippin ridiculous even for Cal! Man I wish he hadn't gotten hurt!

Jon Matthews, Bakersfield/Dayton .331/.418/.411/.829 17 sb - speedy outfielder is hitting, hitting, hitting. Not a power guy. Potential 2 hole to Billy's leadoff someday? Certainly raising his profile

Tanner Rahier, Dayton .288/.337/.424/.761 6 homers. Not eye popping numbers but enough improvement to boost his stock certainly.

Carlton Daal, Dayton .301/.338/.346/.684 He can hit albeit without much power but it's good enough for a SS. The bugaboo here is whether he gets the throwing down - too many errors. Bat has raised his stock. Fielding has raised the question marks.

Jose Ortiz, Dayton .304/.360/.652/.1.012 Although his season has just gotten started he's already ripping the cover off the ball. Pioneer numbers are no mirage with this guy it seems.

Rossmel Perez, Pensacola .319/.373/.445/.818 Where the heck did this come from? Lefty hitting catcher has raised his stock although I'm not sure if this is just a mirage. Nothing in his career so far would indicate these numbers were coming. If it's for real then one whale of a pickup.

Kyle Waldrop, Pensacola/Bakersfield .346/.399/.506/.906 is Penscola stats are down but only to a reasonable level (.819) - his Cal League numbers were ridiculous. Really rising in my book, maybe a dark horse LF candidate, certainly pushing his way into the 4th OFer speculation for the near future.

Great posting. We're definitely far enough into the season for the stats to start to be meaningful and to reassess where some of these guys rank in the system.

[RED VAN HOT]

I pose the question to RZ concerning Elizalde's ceiling. I notice that he is listed as OF'er/1B. He does have 9 HR this year, but has not shown much power in the past. Still, he is still young, with lots of doubles. It appears that he can hit for average and get on base at a high rate. Speed seems to be no better than average. Does he possess enough power potential to be considered a corner outfield prospect? Does he profile as 4th OF'er?

[chupacabra]

I know it's been a week since the baseball prospectus midseason top 50 came out, but I was just wondering if anyone could share the list only without any scouting report, particulary numbers 7, 14, 20, 23, 30, 32, 38, and 44. I'm just curious to see how the BP list looks compared to mine. Thanks in advance.

[WrongVerb]

Doug, I'm not one to get too excited about prospects early on. But there seem to be a LOT of solid hitting prospects at Billings. How much of that is attributed to talent, and how much (if any) is attributable to the ballpark and/or the opposing pitching talent?

[dougdirt]

Doug, I'm not one to get too excited about prospects early on. But there seem to be a LOT of solid hitting prospects at Billings. How much of that is attributed to talent, and how much (if any) is attributable to the ballpark and/or the opposing pitching talent?

The league in general is hitter friendly, but the ballpark they play in is pitcher friendly (for the league at least). There's some talent on that team though.

[Benihana]

Doug, I'm not one to get too excited about prospects early on. But there seem to be a LOT of solid hitting prospects at Billings. How much of that is attributed to talent, and how much (if any) is attributable to the ballpark and/or the opposing pitching talent?

My name's not Doug but there are definitely a few real hitting prospects on that team. Specifically SS Cory Thompson, OF Aristedes Aquino, SS/2B Alex Blandino and 3B Taylor Sparks- all four of those guys are top 25 guys in the system.

Over time Kevin Franklin could turn things around too, although he hasn't dazzled since being taken in the 2nd round of last year's draft.

[M2]

At mid-season I prefer to look at momentum. Whose stock is up and whose is down?

Stock Up

Michael Lorenzen - Hard to ask more from the guy. More whiffs would be nice, but he's got the velo to add them.

Jon Moscot - Might have some Aaron Harang in him.

Ben Lively - Got some BB issues in AA, but he's still got an absurd K rate. It would be nice to see him stick at one level for a while so we can see if a league catches up to him or if he adjusts beyond the league.

Kyle Waldrop - Swiftly working his way into prospect status.

Jesse Winker - Establishing himself as one of the better hitters in the minors.

Juan Silva - OB and speed can take you far.

Sebastian Elizalde - Mature approach to hitting.

Carlton Daal - It's a SS!

Amir Garrett - Becoming a pitcher.

Dan Langfield - Healthy and gassing hitters. It will be interesting to see where he slots in (rotation or pen) and how quickly he moves up.

Juan Silverio - Frazier in front of him and SMB behind him, but he keeps progressing.

Stock Down

Daniel Corcino - Plagued by control problems and still moving backwards. Might need a bullpen conversion.

Phil Ervin - Still a prospect, but not on the rocket ride he was after 2013.

Chad Rogers - Looks like he might have hit his ceiling.

Others are up or down to smaller degrees. For instance, Travieso's performance has helped him avoid the trap door that was under him if he didn't perform, but I doubt it's going to appreciably change the prospect grades that were out there prior to the season. Tucker Barnhart is having a forgettable season at the plate, but his catching skills remain his ticket to a major league career.

I stayed away from kids in rookie ball because they haven't played enough yet. By the end of the season I expect more than a few of them will see their stock way up. Dayton's 2015 rotation is already looking pretty interesting.

[mth123]

Haven't been able to post as much lately, but here is a late July ranking. Guys below AA are hard to rank just by stats, and that is mostly what I'm going off of, so this is just to kick-start a little discussion.

1. Stephenson
2. Winker
3. Lorenzen (Muddy from here)
4. Ervin
5. Travieso
6. Iglacias
7. Lively
8. Aquino
9. Elizalde
10. Mejias-Brean
11. Howard
12. Garrett
13. Y-Rod
14. Romano
15. Blandino
16. Daal
17. Waldrop
18. Medina
19. Thompson
20. Moscot
21. Guillon
22. Langfield
23. Constante
24. Corcino
25. Arias
26. Rahier
27. Lavelley
28. D. Wright
29. R. Wright
30. Holmberg

[Benihana]

Haven't been able to post as much lately, but here is a late July ranking. Guys below AA are hard to rank just by stats, and that is mostly what I'm going off of, so this is just to kick-start a little discussion.

1. Stephenson
2. Winker
3. Lorenzen (Muddy from here)
4. Ervin
5. Travieso
6. Iglacias
7. Lively
8. Aquino
9. Elizalde
10. Mejias-Brean
11. Howard
12. Garrett
13. Y-Rod
14. Romano
15. Blandino
16. Daal
17. Waldrop
18. Medina
19. Thompson
20. Moscot
21. Guillon
22. Langfield
23. Constante
24. Corcino
25. Arias
26. Rahier
27. Lavelley
28. D. Wright
29. R. Wright
30. Holmberg

Not a bad list overall, although I'd say IMO Aquino, Elizalde, Romano and Medina are too high while Howard, Rahier and Sparks are all probably too low.

[Kc61]

Not a bad list overall, although I'd say IMO Aquino, Elizalde, Romano and Medina are too high while Howard, Rahier and Sparks are all probably too low.

I think Aquino and Elizalde may be too LOW by a couple. Clearly top ten guys in this organization IMO.

Great list by mth.

I also think the top three guys are closer than most people seem to think.

[dougdirt]

I think Aquino and Elizalde may be too LOW by a couple. Clearly top ten guys in this organization IMO.

Great list by mth.

I also think the top three guys are closer than most people seem to think.

Aquino and Elizalde aren't sniffing my Top 10 right now. I like both of them, certainly top 20 guys, but the Reds top 10 is a tough one to get into right now and they just aren't there for me and I don't really have to sit back and think about it.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I’ve ranked each position-player (per level) based on their value to the organization, going forward.

AAA-Louisville
Rey Navarro (2B, SS)…..age: 24.220…..stock: UP/Top 20-30 Reds Prospect (will need to be added to 40-man roster by 2015)
Juan Silverio (3B)…..age: 23.103…..stock: UP/Top 20-30 Reds Prospect (will need to be added to 40-man roster by 2015)
Tucker Barnhart (C)…..age: 22.204…..stock: slightly DOWN/Top 30-40 Reds Prospect (40-man roster)
Neftali Soto (1B, 3B)…..age: 25.152…..stock: slightly DOWN/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect (40-man roster)
Brian Anderson (C)…..age: 27.226…..stock: UP/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect (may need to be added to 40-man roster by 2015)
Steve Selsky (OF)…..age: 25.010…..stock: slightly UP/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Felix Perez (OF)…..age: 29.258…..stock: UP/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Ryan LaMarre (CF)…..age: 25.251…..stock: DOWN/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect (40-man roster)
Ruben Gotay (2B, 3B)…..age: 31.217…..MiL FA having a solid season in AAA-LOU.
Jason Bourgeois (CF)…..age: 32.207…..MiL FA having a solid season in AAA-LOU.

AA-Pensacola
Jesse Winker (LF)…..age: 20.347…..stock: UP/Top 5 Reds Prospect
Yorman Rodriguez (CF)…..age: 21.349…..stock: DOWN/ Top 10-15 Reds Prospect (40-man roster)
Seth Mejias-Brean (3B)…..age: 23.116…..stock: STEADY/Top 10-15 Reds Prospect
Kyle Waldrop (LF)…..age: 22.246…..stock: UP/Top 15-20 Reds Prospect
Ryan Wright (2B)…..age: 24.239…..stock: STEADY /Top 30-40 Reds Prospect
Rossmel Perez (C)…..age: 24.338….. stock: UP /Top 30-40 Reds Prospect (MiL FA)
Juan Duran (RF)…..age: 22.331….. stock: STEADY/Top 30-40 Reds Prospect (40-man roster)

A+ Bakersfield
Sebastian Elizalde (OF, 1B)…..age: 22.252…..stock: UP/ Top 10-15 Reds Prospect
Juan Silva (OF)…..age: 23.203….. stock: UP/ Top 20-30 Reds Prospect
Junior Arias (CF)…..age: 22.202….. stock: STEADY/ Top 20-30 Reds Prospect
Marquez Smith (1B, 3B)…..age: 29.132…..MiL FA having a tremendous season in A+-BAK.
Juan Perez (2B, SS)…..age: 22.271…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Beau Amaral (CF)…..age: 23.169…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Zach Vincej (SS)…..age: 23.090…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
David Vidal (C, 1B)…..age: 24.280…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Sean Buckley (1B, DH)…..age: 24.330…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect

A+ Dayton
Phil Ervin (OF)…..age: 22.015….. stock: DOWN/ Top 5-10 Reds Prospect
Alex Blandino (SS, 2B)…..age: 21.266….. stock: UP/ Top 5-10 Reds Prospect
Carlton Daal (SS)…..age: 20.363….. stock: slightly UP/ Top 20-30 Reds Prospect
Tanner Rahier (3B)…..age: 20.291….. stock: UP/ Top 20-30 Reds Prospect
Jose Ortiz (C)…..age: 20.049….. stock: STEADY/ Top 20-30 Reds Prospect
Jon Matthews (OF)…..age: 23.115….. stock: STEADY/ Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Jamodrick McGruder (2B)…..age: 22.360…..stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Jonathan Reynoso (OF)…..age: 21.204…..stock: DOWN/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Avain Rachal (UTIL)…..age: 20.169…..stock: DOWN/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect

R-Billings
Aristides Aquino (OF)…..age: 20.099….. stock: UP/ Top 10-15 Reds Prospect
Taylor Sparks (3B)…..age: 21.118….. stock: UP/ Top 10-15 Reds Prospect
Cory Thompson (SS)…..age: 19.310….. stock: STEADY/ Top 30-40 Reds Prospect
Kevin Franklin (3B, 1B)…..age: 19.248.... stock: DOWN/ Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Ty Washington (2B)…..age: 20.332..... stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Kevin Garcia (2B)…..age: 20.332..... stock: STEADY/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Brian O’Grady (OF, 1B)…..age: 22.074….. stock: UP/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Garrett Boulware (C)…..age: 21.324….. stock: UP/Top 50-75 Reds Prospect
Shedric Long (C)…..age: 18.342….. stock: STEADY/ Top 50-75 Reds Prospect

R-AZL Reds
Gavin LaValley (3B)…..age: 19.214….. stock: UP/ Top 30-40 Reds Prospect
Reydel Medina (OF)…..age: 21.166….. stock: STEADY/Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Jose Siri (CF)…..age: 19.008….. stock: STEADY/Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Shane Mardirosian (2B)…..age: 18.290….. stock: STEADY/ Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Mitch Trees (C)…..age: 19.012….. stock: STEADY/ Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Montrell Marshall (C)…..age: 18.119….. stock: STEADY/ Top 40-50 Reds Prospect
Chadwick Tromp (C)…..age: 19.131.... stock: UP/ Top 50-75 Reds Prospect