Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 77

Thread: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    118

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    i haven't seen these guys but have read quite a bit about them and focused on their stats.

    IMO Lorenzen is #1, Stephenson #2, and Winker #3. More important, I think they are extremely close as prospects.

    Lorenzen doesn't have the pitching experience yet has control, ground ball tendencies, polish, and sounds like he will miss more bats as he gains experience. Stephenson probably has more dynamic stuff, but perhaps not the control as yet.
    Winker would probably be third because he seems to be solely a LFer. Hopefully Jesse can hit lefties, important for a LHH.

    Just my view, all very good prospects, I just don't see the huge gap others may see.
    I actually think there are many who would agree that the gap has closed and isn't all that much between the top 3. I personally agree with that assessment as I think all 3 are top 50 guys and Stephenson isn't necessarily a sure-fire top 10 guy, so not much of a gap.

    I'd still give Stephenson the nod as the top guy due to his stuff and his age. Fun fact on Stephenson: 375/378 batters he has faced this season are older than he is.

    As for the control, it is probably unfair to take away certain games and look at a clipped version of stats. But it is at least worth noting that he had 2 terrible games where he gave up 7 walks in each. Take away those 7 innings, 14 walks and he's right below his career average of about 3.5 walks per nine innings.

    Half of a season isn't a super small sample size, but it is interesting to me that he only had those 2 games where control was a major issue. He had 2 others where he gave up 4 walks but actually pitched pretty well. In every other start he had 1-3 walks, which is right where you'd expect him to be.

    Major control problem or just 2 bad nights where he was off?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,447

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    With me (with Yorman) it's a little more about starting to lose faith. I still think he has tools and a lot of upside, but at what point does the performance start to negate that - kinda like Kurt Stillwell (one of yours and my favorite topics). I still believe in Yorman, which is why he has the highest ranking of a prospect with a sub-.700 OPS after 2000 career plate appearances, maybe ever. That said, the fact remains he has a sub-.700 OPS over 2000 career plate appearances. At a certain point, that starts to catch up with you and people start to understandably lose faith.

    Personally, I'll give Yorman another year. If he turns it on, great. However if he's still falling short of a .700 (or even .800) OPS in AA this time next year, he'll probably be left off of these lists. But for now, he's right in the middle - and I think the #11 ranking makes sense. He'll either make a big move up or a big move down, depending on how he hits over the next 6-12 months.

    And that's to say nothing of his options, for which he has a pretty high risk of getting Wily Mo Pena'd. Except that Wily Mo was performing much better than Yorman- at the same age and at same or higher levels.

    Also what Arizona shortstops are you referring to?
    I guess my issue is, at the start of May you had Yorman as your #3 prospect. He has a terrible May, that we can directly link to an injury, and he drops 8 spots to #11 despite hitting just fine for April and June. It seems strange. If you had him at #8 or 9 heading into May, I get it. I would have told you he was too low when you made your list in May, but at least I would understand him falling some. I even had him falling some from May, but more so because I think Lorenzen and Travieso have passed him up from where we both had him at. It just seems like an awful big fall, 8 spots in two months, because he had one poor month directly following an injured oblique.

    BA Handbook had both Hector Vargas and Luis Gonzalez ahead of both Thompson and Daal coming into the 2014 season at shortstop.

  4. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    The Bush Leagues
    Posts
    9,158

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    "Too early to tell is right" for Lavalley. But I really like the pick. I don't usually like this type of player but the wags were so effusive about his bat speed that I predict a quick rise, even if he doesn't have a long career.

    Is there a secret lab somewhere that will meld SMB and Yorman into one player with tools and success?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  5. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    1,187

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    I must have missed the discussion in which RZ determined that SMB was lacking tools. When drafted, Baseball America described him as an excellent defender at 3B with a little pop, but mostly a line drive gap to gap hitter. At 3B he needs quickness, good hands, and a strong arm. Is the power less than what is desired at 3B?

  6. #20
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,837

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Love these threads. Just like to add a few names to watch for that the original lists didn't have room for:

    Juan Silva
    Daniel Wright
    Carlos Gonzalez
    Sal Romano

    Some we've already seen

    Donald Lutz
    Carlos Contreras
    Curtis Partch

    And some we've picked up who my be something useful

    Rey Navarro
    Juan Silverio
    Rossmel Perez


    As far as trade bait goes, I'd guess the main targets would be role players who can spot in on offense and bullpen help. GUys I'd be shopping

    Seth Mejias-Brean
    Jon Moscot
    Tucker Barnhart
    Daniel Corcino
    Ismael Guillon
    Amir Garrett
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,869

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Drugs Delaney View Post
    Good stuff (except for the Go Blue in your sig). Not much to disagree with, though I might have a few of the recent draft picks a couple spots higher.

    I think next April is too optimistic on Winker. Best case realistically is probably August or September of 2015.

    It seems I am very much in the minority, but I like Blandino. When watching him, he just seems like one of those guys who is at home on the baseball field. Kind of a Todd Frazier vibe (not that he has that type of upside, just on field personality). I know that's a very weak defense of him, but just call it a gut feeling I guess. If his defense plays in the middle infield, I like his chances of moving up pretty quickly as I think he will hit enough to be an above average utility INF and maybe even a starting caliber guy.
    I guess that's kind of the point with Blandino: it's bad when even the guy that likes him says that "IF his glove can play in the middle infield, he could be an above average utility guy or maybe even a starter."

    My view is that you take a guy at 29 that you feel should definitely be a starter, and a way above average one at that. I realize some top 30 picks don't even make the majors let alone start, but my view is that you should focus on players who you envision can be above average starters at that point in the draft- not guys that can be utility players or "maybe even start" IF everything clicks- and that description is coming from one of his defenders.

    Sadly, that description is quite similar to what people were saying about Devin Lohman and Brodie Greene after the 2010 Draft. Ryan Wright too. I hope and expect that Blandino will be better than those guys, but it's that sort of profile that bothers me.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 08:51 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  8. Likes:

    Tony Cloninger (07-04-2014)

  9. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,558

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    All good stuff, Beni, especially the GO BLUE! Navarro seems to me to be getting to the place where it's likely he's going to have some kind of major league career.

  10. Likes:

    Benihana (07-04-2014)

  11. #23
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,869

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I guess my issue is, at the start of May you had Yorman as your #3 prospect. He has a terrible May, that we can directly link to an injury, and he drops 8 spots to #11 despite hitting just fine for April and June. It seems strange. If you had him at #8 or 9 heading into May, I get it. I would have told you he was too low when you made your list in May, but at least I would understand him falling some. I even had him falling some from May, but more so because I think Lorenzen and Travieso have passed him up from where we both had him at. It just seems like an awful big fall, 8 spots in two months, because he had one poor month directly following an injured oblique.

    BA Handbook had both Hector Vargas and Luis Gonzalez ahead of both Thompson and Daal coming into the 2014 season at shortstop.
    Here's how I think about that:

    IMO, the main reason for Yorman dropping from #3 to #11 has more to do with the performance (and addition) of others than it does his own performance, although the latter certainly hasn't helped. Three pitchers - Lorenzen, Travielso and Lively - have clearly moved ahead of him due to their own performance. Two first round caliber talents have been added to the organization since May - Iglesias and Howard. That leaves Yorman in the same group as Moscot and SMB, and while I'd acknowledge you could put those three in any order at this point, I put the other two ahead of Yorman because they have earned it - not only through their performance this season but throughout their professional careers.

    Put another way, you could think of this list in four groups, where the individual prospects are relatively interchangeable within their grouping:

    Group 1 (1-3): Stephenson, Winker and Lorenzen
    Group 2 (4-8): Iglesias, Travieso, Lively, Ervin and Howard
    Group 3 (9-11): SMB, Moscot and Yorman
    Group 4 (12-20): Everyone else

    I don't think it's particularly fair to cherry pick individual months of Yorman's performance from this season or blame it on coming back from injury a week or two early, when in reality it's much more about his full body of work - the 2000 plate appearances over the last six seasons. He hasn't OPS'd over .751 in a season once in the last four years, and really hasn't inspired much confidence from his performance since 2010 and his numbers don't appear to be trending in the right direction. That doesn't really cut it for a corner OF.

    For further context, the other bonus baby OF from the Class of '08, Juan Duran, has actually outperformed Yorman throughout their careers- including this season, and no one ever mentions Duran as a top prospect anymore. Of course there is still time as he is young for his level, but Yorman does turn 22 next month and has six professional seasons under his belt. I think it's a fair thing for doubts and concerns to start being raised.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 11:57 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #24
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Posts
    7

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    It really depends on how you look at Yorman's numbers. If you look at his year to year numbers they appear stagnate, but with 2010 and likely this year a promotion brought those numbers down. I look at his numbers and see progress as his second stint typically better than his first stint. His first time in Billings he had an OPS of .603 and his second a .817. Dayton a .711 then a .737. Bakersfield a .381 then a .789. Pensacola a .714 and TBD. Aside from his OPS improving typically his BB increased and K decreased. I think it is perfectly fair to highlight the individual months, it goes to trend; how he performed before the injury, immediately after coming of the injury and in full swing.

    I think its safe to say that the Reds like Blandino far more than the board does and believe he is a starter otherwise I doubt they would have selected him, its not the Bowden era with Sowers or Schramek.

  13. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,447

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    I don't get the reasoning with Yorman. His full body of work didn't seem to matter when he hit in April. It only mattered when he didn't hit in May when he returned from an injury.

  14. #26
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,869

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by napalextus View Post
    It really depends on how you look at Yorman's numbers. If you look at his year to year numbers they appear stagnate, but with 2010 and likely this year a promotion brought those numbers down. I look at his numbers and see progress as his second stint typically better than his first stint. His first time in Billings he had an OPS of .603 and his second a .817. Dayton a .711 then a .737. Bakersfield a .381 then a .789. Pensacola a .714 and TBD. Aside from his OPS improving typically his BB increased and K decreased. I think it is perfectly fair to highlight the individual months, it goes to trend; how he performed before the injury, immediately after coming of the injury and in full swing.
    Yeah but when do you begin to lose confidence/patience? He is OPSing 70 points lower than he did last year in AA, and where he was last year was not a great place to start. More importantly, I believe he has to stick in the bigs after next season like Wily Mo, only WMP was way outperforming Yorman at this point. If it takes Yorman 2-3 years to adjust to each level, and he's nowhere near adjusted to AA now, how is he going to stick in the majors in 2016?

    I think its safe to say that the Reds like Blandino far more than the board does and believe he is a starter otherwise I doubt they would have selected him, its not the Bowden era with Sowers or Schramek.
    Oh I beg to differ on the second part. Other than Frazier, who is the last college hitter Buckley has drafted who has stuck as an average or above average starter level in the big leagues? Valaika, Lohman, Greene, LaMarre and Gelalich aren't much different than Mark Schramek. Even the guys who have reached the bigs like Alonso and Grandal look to be more Brandon Larson than above average starters. Lucky for us Walt was able to spin that pyrite into gold by dealing with a GM who just lost his job and probably any further chance to be one in the future.

    I agree that the Reds and Buckley must view Blandino more favorable than the board does, but let's not act like those guys have a great track record with this type of player.

    In any event, despite these discussions I am happily reserving judgment on both Yorman and Blandino at least for another year or year-and-a-half. I hope both players turn it on and become very productive players (or at least trade chips) for the Reds in the near future.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 02:18 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #27
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,735

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    In looking at prospects who might be traded, it may not be so simple. Sometimes we set aside the top five guys or so and assume everyone else is trade bait, particularly guys with value.

    But the Reds may target some of their "lesser" prospects as potential MLB backups for the Reds ballclub. A guy like SMB may not be a starter, but he has a good hitting approach. The Reds may want that for their team, even if he doesn't hit with the power to start at a corner position.

    In the past the Reds have typically made good choices in trading prospects. Depends on the internal scouting view of each player.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-04-2014 at 02:16 PM.

  16. #28
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,869

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    In looking at prospects who might be traded, it may not be so simple. Sometimes we set aside the top five guys or so and assume everyone else is trade bait, particularly guys with value.

    But the Reds may target some of their "lesser" prospects as potential MLB backups for the Reds ballclub. A guy like SMB may not be a starter, but he has a good hitting approach. The Reds may want that for their team, even if he doesn't hit with the power to start at a corner position.

    In the past the Reds have typically made good choices in trading prospects. Depends on the internal scouting view of each player.
    Agreed. I think if the Reds want to improve, they'll almost have to deal 1-2 of their RHP in the top 10. Whether that's Lively, Travieso or Moscot, along with 1-2 others that remains to be seen. We know Stephenson, Iglesias and Howard aren't going anywhere. Lorenzen could go either way. The good thing is I really trust Walt when it comes to trading away prospects. I think Dan Haren is the only prospect he's dealt in the last 15 years that really ever amounted to anything.
    Go BLUE!!!

  17. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    1,187

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    What's so bad about Blandino becoming a utility infielder? Every year the Reds sign one and all year RZ complains about how poorly he hits and how few true pinch hitters the Reds have. If Blandino can give the Reds 25 starts spread across 2B, 3B, and SS, and give them a bat off the bench the rest of the time, it is, IMO, a good selection at 29. That must be a valuable commodity because the Reds have trouble finding players who can do it, even though they hold auditions every spring. For those that want to draft a plus hitter guaranteed to stick at SS, here's how you do it. Finish near the bottom in ML baseball the year before. Other than that, the best hope is to sign Latin players with tools and hope that they develop into hitters.

  18. Likes:

    Redeyecat (07-06-2014)

  19. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,447

    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Yorman is hitting over .300 outside of May in Double-A this year with solid walk and strikeout rates. May was the problem. We know he was coming off of an oblique injury in May. To say he is nowhere near adjusted is a bit of a stretch. Again, outside of May 2014, when we know there were very likely circumstances that prevented him from playing well, he has this line for his career in AA over 488 plate appearances: .275/.334/.393

    That isn't great, but it sure isn't bad either, much less someone who is nowhere near adjusted to the level. And it came at ages 20 and 21.

  20. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (07-07-2014), Redeyecat (07-06-2014)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25