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Thread: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

  1. #31
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yorman is hitting over .300 outside of May in Double-A this year with solid walk and strikeout rates. May was the problem. We know he was coming off of an oblique injury in May. To say he is nowhere near adjusted is a bit of a stretch. Again, outside of May 2014, when we know there were very likely circumstances that prevented him from playing well, he has this line for his career in AA over 488 plate appearances: .275/.334/.393

    That isn't great, but it sure isn't bad either, much less someone who is nowhere near adjusted to the level. And it came at ages 20 and 21.
    A .720 OPS over 500 AB isn't doing much for me. Especially for a corner OF with a career OPS below .700. That is, if you want to be considered a "top prospect." Age is relevant but not a free pass. And it's not like he's 18.
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  3. #32
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    A .720 OPS over 500 AB isn't doing much for me. Especially for a corner OF with a career OPS below .700. That is, if you want to be considered a "top prospect." Age is relevant but not a free pass. And it's not like he's 18.
    First things first, he is a center fielder who can play in the corners. He's not elite in center, but he can handle it. That makes him a lot more than a corner outfielder.

    And no, it's not like he is 18, but it's also Double-A where he's been one of the five youngest players there for his entire time in the league.

    Again, I just don't understand how two months ago these weren't problems, but now they are unless you are basing it entirely on May 2014.

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  5. #33
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    First things first, he is a center fielder who can play in the corners. He's not elite in center, but he can handle it. That makes him a lot more than a corner outfielder.

    And no, it's not like he is 18, but it's also Double-A where he's been one of the five youngest players there for his entire time in the league.

    Again, I just don't understand how two months ago these weren't problems, but now they are unless you are basing it entirely on May 2014.
    I addressed that in post 23. If I were grading Yorman completely independently, he has gone from a B- to a C/C-. Not a huge difference, but his failure to finally breakout (and some might even say regress) in the first half of 2014 after building up some momentum at the end of last year has hurt him. However the reason he has dropped so dramatically in the rankings in two months (vis a vis the context of other prospects) is more about others' outstanding performance and new acquisitions than it is about his mediocre performance.

    I'm not suggesting he's worthless or has no prospect value, but I don't believe he would be considered a top 5 prospect for any franchise in the game at this point.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 05:17 PM.
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  6. #34
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I addressed that in post 23. If I were grading Yorman completely independently, he has gone from a B- to a C/C-. Not a huge difference, but his failure to finally breakout (and some might even say regress) in the first half of 2014 after building up some momentum at the end of last year has hurt him. However the reason he has dropped so dramatically in the rankings in two months (vis a vis the context of other prospects) is more about others' outstanding performance and new acquisitions than it is about his mediocre performance.

    I'm not suggesting he's worthless or has no prospect value, but I don't believe he would be considered a top 5 prospect for any franchise in the game at this point.
    Anyone who says he has regressed hasn't been paying attention to what has happened in 2014.

    And really, his grade shouldn't have dropped at all. If others raised their grades to pass him, fine. But you are dropping his grade based on May 2014.

  7. #35
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If others raised their grades to pass him, fine. But you are dropping his grade based on 2014.
    Fixed. .647 OPS for the season. I don't care how you slice the months.

    Just looking at 2013, there were at least 7 guys who had higher OPS's who were 21 or younger in the Southern League (let alone the other AA leagues). As a reminder, Yorman turns 22 next month.

    Javier Baez
    Christian Yelich
    Joc Pederson
    Julio Morban
    Arismendy Alcantara
    Christian Bethancourt
    and our old friend Ronald Torreyes

    That is - better OPS than Yorman both last year AND this year. In the same league. So it's not as if he is some unbelievable wunderkind that is tackling a league that's never been tackled before. Again, some of the guys above ARE top prospects. Yorman is certainly not. But don't misinterpret that message for me saying he can't be, or he has no value- he is just not a top prospect at this time. Won't appear on any Top 100 lists at midseason, and maybe not even any Top 200 lists. Hence his C/C- grade.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 06:18 PM.
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  8. #36
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Fixed. .647 OPS for the season. I don't care how you slice the months.

    Just looking at 2013, there were at least 7 guys who had higher OPS's who were 21 or younger in the Southern League (let alone the other AA leagues). As a reminder, Yorman turns 22 next month.

    Javier Baez
    Christian Yelich
    Joc Pederson
    Julio Morban
    Arismendy Alcantara
    Christian Bethancourt
    and our old friend Ronald Torreyes

    That is - better OPS than Yorman both last year AND this year. In the same league. So it's not as if he is some unbelievable wunderkind that is tackling a league that's never been tackled before. Again, some of the guys above ARE top prospects. Yorman is certainly not. But don't misinterpret that message for me saying he can't be, or he has no value- he is just not a top prospect at this time. Won't appear on any Top 100 lists at midseason, and maybe not even any Top 200 lists. Hence his C/C- grade.
    Javier Baez - Top 10 prospect in baseball
    Christian Yelich - Top 10 prospect in baseball
    Joc Pederson - Top 40 prospect in baseball
    Arismendy Alcantara - Top 100 prospect in baseball
    Christian Bethancourt - Top 100 prospect in baseball

    Julio Morban - Better offense, much worse defense where he is projected to be a left fielder because of his below-average speed.
    Ronald Torreyes - His size does his damage and there is no projection left with him really.

    So the comparisons are all elite level prospects, a left fielder and a 5' 7" 140 pounder.

    If you are saying that Rodriguez isn't a Top 100 guy, I will get on board. He's not right now. But you have him outside of the next 100 guys and that I just can't go with.

    Again, I just can't grasp your reasoning. He sucked in May coming off of an oblique injury and has hit just fine in AA for the other nearly 500 PA he has spent there. At the start of May you thought just fine of him. After May he has completely dropped up to a full letter grade for you despite rebounding in June from May when he was clearly not right coming off of the injury. It simply doesn't add up.

    I'm done with it though. Your reasoning doesn't add up to me at all. Trying to understand it further is pointless.

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    Redeyecat (07-06-2014)

  10. #37
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    One other thing to keep an eye on - Tanner Rahier could be as high as #7 on this list by the end of the year.

    20 year old 3B with very strong defense, good power, and hitting over .300 in Dayton? Yes please.

    On the flip side, I'm almost ready to close the book on Gabriel Rosa- which is sad considering he just turned 21. The guy simply can't hit a lick.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-04-2014 at 10:16 PM.
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  11. #38
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Javier Baez - Top 10 prospect in baseball
    Christian Yelich - Top 10 prospect in baseball
    Joc Pederson - Top 40 prospect in baseball
    Arismendy Alcantara - Top 100 prospect in baseball
    Christian Bethancourt - Top 100 prospect in baseball

    Julio Morban - Better offense, much worse defense where he is projected to be a left fielder because of his below-average speed.
    Ronald Torreyes - His size does his damage and there is no projection left with him really.

    So the comparisons are all elite level prospects, a left fielder and a 5' 7" 140 pounder.

    If you are saying that Rodriguez isn't a Top 100 guy, I will get on board. He's not right now. But you have him outside of the next 100 guys and that I just can't go with.

    Again, I just can't grasp your reasoning. He sucked in May coming off of an oblique injury and has hit just fine in AA for the other nearly 500 PA he has spent there. At the start of May you thought just fine of him. After May he has completely dropped up to a full letter grade for you despite rebounding in June from May when he was clearly not right coming off of the injury. It simply doesn't add up.

    I'm done with it though. Your reasoning doesn't add up to me at all. Trying to understand it further is pointless.
    He's still at like a .720 OPS for the other .500 ABs though right?

    I'm with Benihana on this one. He was ranked a certain way because there was an expectation that he'd improve upon his prior seasons' performance in AA. Perhaps even break out a little bit. Even if you take away May, he's right back to OPSing a touch above .700.

    If he ends the season with an OPS of .700 (because May brings the overall numbers down), is that not the type of performance that should knock him down a bit?

    Or was he ranked 3rd with the expectation he'd put up poor to mediocre numbers again because of his age?

  12. #39
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    I'd love to know the organizations plan on what they'd like to do with all these starting pitching prospects and the guys already with the big club.

    Bailey (LTC). Cueto. Latos. Leake. Simon. Cingrani. Stephenson. Lorenzen. Moscot. Lively. Howard. Traveiso.

    In 3 years, who do you forsee being the 5-man staff??? Granted most of the prospects probably won't pan out...but that is a deep list of both proven and prospective starters.

  13. #40
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    I know they are not prospects anymore but what happened to Partch and Nick C in the last month?

    Getting hit all over the place. Walking more than striking hitters out. I mean they are terrible right now.

    It is good the organization is looking for starters wherever possible but how about some MR to help out as well instead of relying
    on one hit wonders (Parra) or barely average (Ondrusek)

    Neal starting over Lutz at 1B makes no sense. At least Lutz is starting but he should be at 1B and not taking AB's away from Selsky, which is really what Neal is doing.


    Navarro is hitting very well in AAA....is he an option over Santiago?

    I do like Tanner a lot as well and even though SMB is not hitting a lot in AA, he has 11 walks and only 4 K's going into tonight.

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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'd love to know the organizations plan on what they'd like to do with all these starting pitching prospects and the guys already with the big club.

    Bailey (LTC). Cueto. Latos. Leake. Simon. Cingrani. Stephenson. Lorenzen. Moscot. Lively. Howard. Traveiso.

    In 3 years, who do you forsee being the 5-man staff??? Granted most of the prospects probably won't pan out...but that is a deep list of both proven and prospective starters.
    In all seriousness, I'd take any 2 of the pitching prospects (other than Stephenson) and trade them to the Cubs right now for one of Baez/Russell and Gleyber Torres. It makes too much sense for both sides. I'd also sub Simon or Cingrani in if you took out Lorenzen, but I'd guess the Cubs would prefer the prospects.
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yorman is hitting over .300 outside of May in Double-A this year with solid walk and strikeout rates. May was the problem. We know he was coming off of an oblique injury in May. To say he is nowhere near adjusted is a bit of a stretch. Again, outside of May 2014, when we know there were very likely circumstances that prevented him from playing well, he has this line for his career in AA over 488 plate appearances: .275/.334/.393

    That isn't great, but it sure isn't bad either, much less someone who is nowhere near adjusted to the level. And it came at ages 20 and 21.
    In looking at his splits, I straight up missed April somehow....

  16. #43
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Drugs Delaney View Post
    Kind of a Todd Frazier vibe (not that he has that type of upside, just on field personality).
    I'm pretty sure most experts didn't think Todd Frazier had Todd Frazier type upside.

  17. #44
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    As far as trade bait goes, I'd guess the main targets would be role players who can spot in on offense and bullpen help. GUys I'd be shopping

    Seth Mejias-Brean
    Jon Moscot
    Tucker Barnhart
    Daniel Corcino
    Ismael Guillon
    Amir Garrett
    Tucker as trade bait? Really? I see him as the backup catcher on the Reds roster next season. I know many have fallen in love with Pena (I was slow to embrace him, but he has played much better than I expected and his personality is infectious), but Tucker is a nearly perfect backup catcher.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

  18. #45
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - Midseason/July 2014 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Tucker as trade bait? Really? I see him as the backup catcher on the Reds roster next season. I know many have fallen in love with Pena (I was slow to embrace him, but he has played much better than I expected and his personality is infectious), but Tucker is a nearly perfect backup catcher.
    Pena is still a Red next year.


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