Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provided an update on the Astros’ talks with Brady Aiken after speaking to GM Jeff Luhnow, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management (Aiken’s adviser), a league official and MLBPA executive director Tony Clark. Close feels that the the Astros are acting “with disregard” to the draft’s rules, while an MLB official noted that everything about the process has been within the CBA’s guidelines. Here are a few reactions to that story, and some other notes from around the AL West…

Jim Callis of Baseball America feels that there’s more than just gamesmanship going on with the Aiken situation (Twitter link). Medical reports are highly subjective, he notes, adding that he can’t see the Astros concocting the concern as part of some plan.
Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com tweets that the Astros are being demonized for doing something that is allowed within the rules laid out in the last CBA. He feels that Major League Baseball created this problem by leaving a loophole in the rules. McDaniel also notes that this is what more traditional organizations dislike about the Astos; while their moves can be perceived as smart or strategic, they come off as cold and calculating (All Twitter links). Interested parties should also note that McDaniel’s timeline is full of discussion with his followers regarding this very topic.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Latest On Astros, Brady Aiken

By Steve Adams [July 15, 2014 at 9:54am CDT]

JULY 15: The Astros believe that Aiken’s MRI revealed a “significant abnormality,” Major League sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Aiken’s adviser, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, tells Rosenthal that the team has made just one revised offer — a bonus of $3,168,840. That amount represents the minimum bonus Houston would need to offer in order to receive the second pick in next year’s draft as compensation.

Close, who insists that Aiken is asymptomatic and healthy, offered some harsh words for the Astros and the way they’ve handled negotiations:

“We are extremely disappointed that Major League Baseball is allowing the Astros to conduct business in this manner with a complete disregard for the rules governing the draft and the 29 other clubs who have followed those same rules.”

Meanwhile, GM Jeff Luhnow tells Rosenthal that he has been in contact with MLB throughout the entire process to ensure that their actions were within the rules. Pat Courtney, a spokesperson for MLB, said that “Major League Baseball is comfortable that the Houston Astros have acted in complete accord with Major League rules.”

Rosenthal reports that the team informed Nix’s family that the reported $1.5MM agreement between the two sides had to be rescinded because the team first needed to complete its deal with Aiken before finalizing that deal.

MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said the players’ association will weigh all options in support of the players. Specifically regarding Nix, he said: “We believe that it is a clear violation of the rules being attempted solely to avoid penalty. The Astros made a deal with Jacob Nix and should honor that agreement.”

[lollipopcurve]

I hope Aiken goes to UCLA.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

As Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle explained in late June, Aiken would become a free agent if he failed his physical and the Astros did not make an offer of at least 40 percent of his slot value (roughly $3.17MM). Clearly, based on Heyman’s report, Houston is still comfortable enough with Aiken’s elbow that this scenario is unlikely.

However, the Astros would also lose the value of Aiken’s slot from their bonus pool should he elect not to sign, which would be problematic. The Astros were set to save about $1.4MM on Aiken’s original $6.5MM bonus, and a great deal of those savings were reserved for the $1.5MM bonus they’ve agreed to with fifth-rounder Jacob Nix – a bonus that is $1.13MM over slot. It is in Houston’s best interest to get some form of deal worked out, as losing Aiken’s slot would drop Houston’s overall pool to roughly $5.44MM, leaving them unable to officially sign Nix at that figure without incurring penalties in future drafts (the maximum penalty, which is enforced if a team exceeds its draft pool by more than 15 percent, is the forfeiture of a team’s next two first-round picks and a 100 percent luxury tax on the overage).

[RedlegJake]

The Astros big mistake was making Nix an actual offer before they had things completely done with Aiken. Pulling Nix's offer makes them look like jackasses and it's going to be hard to gloss over it.

[M2]

The Astros big mistake was making Nix an actual offer before they had things completely done with Aiken. Pulling Nix's offer makes them look like jackasses and it's going to be hard to gloss over it.

Yep. A big part of scouting is getting families to trust that you're an honest and fair-minded organization.

Also, the Aiken situation is going to be hard to spin. Generally the difference between a $6.5m offer and a $3.1M offer is talent, not health. You don't pay $3.1M to anyone if you've got serious health concerns. On top of that, what exactly is the concern here? That Aiken might need TJ surgery down the road? Um, big deal. That's a risk with every pitcher.

It would seem the possible explanations for this move are:

1. The Astros have buyers remorse on Aiken and they're essentially punting this year's first pick by making him an offer he's almost guaranteed to reject. By offering the minimum they get that #2 pick next season. And if Aiken shockingly accepts that offer, then the Astros at least have the cash to reel in Nix and Marshall. This is the most likely scenario.

2. The Astros are gomers enough to think this might work. This is their 3rd straight #1 pick and they might be back here again next year, so why the hell not?

3. Houston's finances are a shambles.

4. The Astros love the 2015 draft.

5. No one in Houston wastes a lot of brain energy on thinking things through, so we get this current comedy of errors. I'd rank this as the second most likely scenario.

[dougdirt]

Yep. A big part of scouting is getting families to trust that you're an honest and fair-minded organization.

Also, the Aiken situation is going to be hard to spin. Generally the difference between a $6.5m offer and a $3.1M offer is talent, not health. You don't pay $3.1M to anyone if you've got serious health concerns. On top of that, what exactly is the concern here? That Aiken might need TJ surgery down the road? Um, big deal. That's a risk with every pitcher.

One source told the Chronicle this:

he may have some of the UCL, but not much,

That would indicate it's a factor today, unless it is an RA Dickey situation where he was just born with a deformity of it (in Dickey's case, he was born without the UCL). Either way, if that is the correct situation that was shared with the Chronicle, it's a big issue.

It's a mess. A big, big mess. But if Aiken has something wrong with the UCL, I get revoking the $6.5M offer and going lower.

[Tom Servo]

What could have happened in between when the Astros did all of their background and due diligence on Aiken and his health and now?

[lollipopcurve]

That would indicate it's a factor today, unless it is an RA Dickey situation where he was just born with a deformity of it (in Dickey's case, he was born without the UCL). Either way, if that is the correct situation that was shared with the Chronicle, it's a big issue.

It's a mess. A big, big mess. But if Aiken has something wrong with the UCL, I get revoking the $6.5M offer and going lower.

One source I read said he just has a smaller UCL. Intact, but not as large. One doctor was quoted as saying that that, in itself, is not necessarily a cause for concern. Per that doctor, the health of the elbow is not a function of the size of the UCL.

It sounds to me like the Astros are trying to leverage an anatomical abnormality -- not necessarily a defect. I may be a little biased, because I am not a Luhnow fan, but I'm reading it all as sleazy and I hope they get burned.

[19braves77]

One source I read said he just has a smaller UCL. Intact, but not as large. One doctor was quoted as saying that that, in itself, is not necessarily a cause for concern. Per that doctor, the health of the elbow is not a function of the size of the UCL.

It sounds to me like the Astros are trying to leverage an anatomical abnormality -- not necessarily a defect. I may be a little biased, because I am not a Luhnow fan, but I'm reading it all as sleazy and I hope they get burned.

Sad thing is the scout assigned to Aiken will probably get a lot of heat. This is something he should have known about....

Either way, Aiken should take the lower deal. The risk of going to college and not getting hurt is too high. Look at Karsten Whitson.

[Gallen5862]

I hope he goes to college. Aiken and Nix have both lost trust in the Astros.

[RedlegJake]

Sad thing is the scout assigned to Aiken will probably get a lot of heat. This is something he should have known about....

Either way, Aiken should take the lower deal. The risk of going to college and not getting hurt is too high. Look at Karsten Whitson.

3.17 million. I agree. Take it, go to the minors and do what you need to and get to the bigs. Succeed. And when FA time comes - tell em to shove it. It's still a ton of money and if handled right sets him pretty well up. I'd just use the BS way it was handled as motivation and then leave the organization when I got the chance.

[dougdirt]

One source I read said he just has a smaller UCL. Intact, but not as large. One doctor was quoted as saying that that, in itself, is not necessarily a cause for concern. Per that doctor, the health of the elbow is not a function of the size of the UCL.

It sounds to me like the Astros are trying to leverage an anatomical abnormality -- not necessarily a defect. I may be a little biased, because I am not a Luhnow fan, but I'm reading it all as sleazy and I hope they get burned.

Do you have a link for that? I haven't seen that one yet and would like to read it.

[M2]

3.17 million. I agree. Take it, go to the minors and do what you need to and get to the bigs. Succeed. And when FA time comes - tell em to shove it. It's still a ton of money and if handled right sets him pretty well up. I'd just use the BS way it was handled as motivation and then leave the organization when I got the chance.

Nah. No way the #1 overall pick takes 40 cents on the dollar. On top of everything else, it makes no sense for a kid to sign with an organization he hates. Aiken's probably got grounds for a lawsuit against MLB. His market value is established and now he can't get it because the one club he's now limited to negotiating with is low-balling him. He put his trust in the system and the system has failed him. Seriously, why shouldn't this kid be declared a free agent? At least that ought to be the pitch to Bud Selig. Declare Aiken a free agent, no strings attached, not subject to any signing pool limits, or we find out if this is a Messersmith case.

[RedlegJake]

Nah. No way the #1 overall pick takes 40 cents on the dollar. On top of everything else, it makes no sense for a kid to sign with an organization he hates. Aiken's probably got grounds for a lawsuit against MLB. His market value is established and now he can't get it because the one club he's now limited to negotiating with is low-balling him. He put his trust in the system and the system has failed him. Seriously, why shouldn't this kid be declared a free agent? At least that ought to be the pitch to Bud Selig. Declare Aiken a free agent, no strings attached, not subject to any signing pool limits, or we find out if this is a Messersmith case.

I have to admit I hadn't thought of that possibility....it could be a case to test the whole slot/restrictive draft system