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Thread: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No, you offer him $3.1M to get your #2 overall pick in 2015. If you think he's the best talent in the 2013 draft then you pay him $6.5M and time frame be damned. An extra year (if he requires TJ surgery along the way) isn't going to matter in the grand scheme of things. If time frame was that important to the Astros then they should have drafted Carlos Rodon, the consensus top college arm. Instead they went with a prep arm, which is almost always going to involve more developmental time and raise the potential risk level.

    The problem with that Petriello piece is it assumes the Astros are rational actors, and we're seeing no evidence to support that. Just a guess, Aiken doesn't sign, he gets declared a free agent just like Barret Loux did and he makes bushels of money.
    Yes and no.

    The Astros would be quite happy if he accepted their $3.1M offer and they didn't get the comp pick. It's not just about the time frame, it's also about the risk involved. TJ surgery isn't a cure all. Not everyone comes back from it where they were. A lot of guys do, but not all of them, so there's risk there.

    It will be very interesting to see how it works out if he decides to try and go the Barret Loux route. I guess at that point we will see just how rational the Astros were being, assuming it gets that far.

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes and no.

    The Astros would be quite happy if he accepted their $3.1M offer and they didn't get the comp pick. It's not just about the time frame, it's also about the risk involved. TJ surgery isn't a cure all. Not everyone comes back from it where they were. A lot of guys do, but not all of them, so there's risk there.
    Maybe that's the story they tell themselves, but at the end of the day it would just be them using a flimsy excuse to knock down Aiken's price in an attempt to sign a few other kids.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It will be very interesting to see how it works out if he decides to try and go the Barret Loux route. I guess at that point we will see just how rational the Astros were being, assuming it gets that far.
    My guess the Yankees stick him in one of these:

    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You still give him $3M because he may still be the best talent in the draft, albeit in a bit of a longer time frame than originally anticipated. That's why he's not getting the $6.5.

    Mike Petriello has the best take I've read on the entire thing.
    The article is good in that it points out that none of us really knows the extent of the medical risk, a point on which the whole discussion pivots. To me, blaming the system, however, is a cop out. No doubt it would be better for the players if there were no overall pool limits. I don't believe, however, that it would be in the best interests of maintaining a competitive balance. The current system gives small market teams at least one area in which the playing field is level.

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    757690 (07-17-2014)

  6. #34
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Just curiously, why did the Astros make their offer Nix, before finalizing their deal with Aiken? That seems like a massive screw up to me.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #35
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Just curiously, why did the Astros make their offer Nix, before finalizing their deal with Aiken? That seems like a massive screw up to me.
    Because they agreed with Aiken the day after the draft (without actually getting down to signing the contract, because of course they wanted to see the medicals), thinking all was fine. It wasn't until they came out and did medical exams that it became an issue.

  8. #36
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because they agreed with Aiken the day after the draft (without actually getting down to signing the contract, because of course they wanted to see the medicals), thinking all was fine. It wasn't until they came out and did medical exams that it became an issue.
    So not pulling a carfax is Aiken ' s fault? They are scared they drafted Brien Taylor and David Clyde 2.0. The medical report that's iffy at best is their way out.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  9. #37
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    So not pulling a carfax is Aiken ' s fault? They are scared they drafted Brien Taylor and David Clyde 2.0. The medical report that's iffy at best is their way out.
    You need a history lesson my friend.

    First off, this isn't the NFL or NBA, MLB teams don't get to give medical exams to players before drafting them. So no, it's not their fault that they didn't have it. It was never an option.

    As for Brien Taylor... he got hurt well into his career. He had thrown 320 innings before being injured. David Clyde threw 200+ innings in the Majors and another 160 in the minors before he got hurt.

    The Astros, and everyone else, loved what they saw from Aiken in high school. They aren't worried about what they saw not working. They are worried about his elbow not working. If that elbow were perfectly fine and normal, he would be signed, sealed and delivered for $6.5M. But the elbow does have some concerns with it.

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because they agreed with Aiken the day after the draft (without actually getting down to signing the contract, because of course they wanted to see the medicals), thinking all was fine. It wasn't until they came out and did medical exams that it became an issue.
    Then don't make an offer to Nix until after Aiken's physical. That seems like GM 101.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #39
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You need a history lesson my friend.

    First off, this isn't the NFL or NBA, MLB teams don't get to give medical exams to players before drafting them. So no, it's not their fault that they didn't have it. It was never an option.

    As for Brien Taylor... he got hurt well into his career. He had thrown 320 innings before being injured. David Clyde threw 200+ innings in the Majors and another 160 in the minors before he got hurt.

    The Astros, and everyone else, loved what they saw from Aiken in high school. They aren't worried about what they saw not working. They are worried about his elbow not working. If that elbow were perfectly fine and normal, he would be signed, sealed and delivered for $6.5M. But the elbow does have some concerns with it.
    I didn't know about the ability to get a physical limitations. Lesson learned. Still, 6.5 M for somebody their own crosschecker said could get MLB hitters out today seems like a good investment. Like others in the thread have said, go with the choice you made the elbow may never be a problem or can be fixed with high probability. Why ruffle feathers over 3ish M when they already have public relations issues with how they do things. Cold feet was my guess. Maybe I'm wrong.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    REDREAD (07-22-2014)

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Getting closer to that 5 PM EST deadline with no update. Jim Callis thinks he gets signed, Ken Rosenthal thinks the Astros must sign him.

    Good read by Rosenthal on the situation

    http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-...-1-pick-071814
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  14. #41
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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Getting closer to that 5 PM EST deadline with no update. Jim Callis thinks he gets signed, Ken Rosenthal thinks the Astros must sign him.

    Good read by Rosenthal on the situation

    http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-...-1-pick-071814
    Best line of the piece - "If the Astros truly believe that Aiken's elbow is a problem, then they should not even continue to negotiate with him. No, they should let Friday's deadline pass without budging from their revised offer of $3,168,840 million -- the minimum amount required to ensure that they would receive the second overall pick in '15."

    Thing is, their actions make it clear they don't truly believe that, which makes this more negotiating ploy than actual concern.

    It's entirely possible this whole tawdry escapade was concocted as a way to get Mac Marshall as well. The Astros needed to take a chunk of money out of Aiken's bonus to get that done. My guess is Close runs out their clock on that one and tells them at 4:55 they can have Aiken and Nix or they get nothing. Close definitely will eliminate Marshall from the equation in order to maximize what his kids get paid. Maybe that's when Luhnow snaps back to something approaching rationality.

    Currently the Astros have all the makings of the dog with the bone in its mouth barking at its reflection in the water.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

    Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, who is advising Aiken, has accused Houston of trying to manipulate its Draft pool to reduce Aiken's bonus and create extra money to sign 21st-round pick Mac Marshall, a Parkview (Ga.) High left-hander who was considered a top-three-rounds talent. Caught in the crossfire is fifth-rounder Jacob Nix, a Los Alamitos (Calif.) High righty who agreed to a $1.5 million bonus within two weeks of the Draft. Nix, who is also advised by Close and Excel, had his deal put on hold because if the Astros paid him $1.5 million and didn't sign Aiken, they would exceed their bonus pool by more than 15 percent -- and forfeit their next two first-round picks as a penalty under the Draft rules.

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Callis reporting that the Astros failed to sign Aiken, Nix and Marshall.

    The beginning of the end for the Luhnow era, in my opinion.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Gallen5862 (07-18-2014)

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Callis reporting that the Astros failed to sign Aiken, Nix and Marshall.

    The beginning of the end for the Luhnow era, in my opinion.
    Wow, just wow. How do you flub that badly? Especially now that the Appel pick is looking pretty suspect now. I agree on the Luhnow speculation.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Houston Astros reduce offer to Brady Aiken.Pull offer to Nix.

    What a clusterf**k.

    The Astros don't get Aiken, Nix or Marshall and Aiken allegedly turns down $5mil. I totally understand why Aiken wouldn't want to play for the Astros after this whole fiasco but that's a whole lot of coin to turn down merely on principle. I hope everything turns out well for the guy but that's a huge risk on his part.


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