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Thread: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That would normally be true. I'm just saying, I'm skeptical whether he has real value as a CF at the major league level - regardless of who is in the Cincinnati OF - because he has played more minor league games in the corner than he has in the middle. He hasn't been playing next to Ryan LaMarre at every level, so more often than not - someone has been a better CF than him on each minor league team. That doesn't bode well for his ability to be a true CF in the majors.

    Some of these guys that started in CF regularly over Yorman include the great Jefry Sierra, Juan Silva, Theo Bowe, Bryson Smith, and the list goes on and on.
    Rodriguez is a plus speed guy. He's got a big time arm. He can handle center field. You can believe me or not believe me if you want to, but prospect evaluators are saying he can handle center unless he grows out of the position. Right now, he can handle it just fine.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Re: How Pensacola's right field effects Yorman Rodriguez

    His Isolated Power in Double-A to right field at home is .286
    His Isolated Power in Double-A to right field on road is .466

    That's a 63% increase in isolated power to right field on the road.

  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Not sure if anyone else heard this yesterday, but Ken Griffey Sr. was on MLB Radio and briefly discussed his role with the Reds. When asked if he's seen any good looking young hitters, his answer was "a couple." He named Winker and Mejias-Brean as the guys who impress him (don't remember his exact wording). No mention of Y-Rod, Ervin or any others. It was a quick off-hand comment and wasn't really the reason he was on the show, so maybe the omission of other names means nothing, but I thought it was interesting that those were the names he dropped.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Redeyecat (07-21-2014)

  6. #34
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not sure if anyone else heard this yesterday, but Ken Griffey Sr. was on MLB Radio and briefly discussed his role with the Reds. When asked if he's seen any good looking young hitters, his answer was "a couple." He named Winker and Mejias-Brean as the guys who impress him (don't remember his exact wording). No mention of Y-Rod, Ervin or any others. It was a quick off-hand comment and wasn't really the reason he was on the show, so maybe the omission of other names means nothing, but I thought it was interesting that those were the names he dropped.
    Like you, I'd probably not make much of the omissions and of course everyone would expect to hear Winker's name. That makes SMB the really interesting mention here and made me look again at his numbers. He's been a model of consistency from level to level--.925 in 2012, .837 last year, .827 so far this [a number I expect to go higher as he gets more AB's at AA]--and the combination of his terrific K to PA ratio and W to K ratio almost guarantee he'll have high OBPs. This year he's only K'ing about 1 in 7 times to the plate and his walks almost match his K's--62 to 64. Really bears watching.

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    Old school 1983 (07-21-2014)

  8. #35
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    72 admits he hasn't seen Yorman Rodriguez play in several years. The scouts he talks to don't cover the places where Yorman has played for the most part since leaving Dayton. I have nothing but respect for 72, but it really needs to be noted that he hasn't watched the guy play in several years.
    While that is true, 72 did provide sound rationale as to why it is disappointing that Yorman isn't further along, given his experience. I don't think anyone has given up on Yorman nor is anyone rooting against him. I think some are just skeptical for many of the reasons 72 stated, even if he and his scout friends haven't seen him recently.

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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Rough thumb in the air numbers are fine.

    Again, I need to say : Going back to June 1st of last year, and excluding May of this year because it was very clear he was injured still and not right, he's hit .283/.341/.428 in 602 plate appearances, mostly at the Double-A level.

    So, does he need to improve the average? The OBP? The power? How much does he need to improve them on a rough thumb in the air scale?
    I think if he's going to stick at a corner you'll need more power than that, but that's likely to come as he fills out.

    It certainly wouldn't hurt if there was 30 points of ba there as well.
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  10. #37
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Yorman Rodriguez OPS

    2010: .817
    2011: .711
    2012: .645
    2013: .751
    2014: .641

    36 Career Home Runs
    70 Career Stolen Bases (trending down)

    Please Yorman, you've been in the system for 5 years...excite me.

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    Benihana (07-19-2014)

  12. #38
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Re: How Pensacola's right field effects Yorman Rodriguez

    His Isolated Power in Double-A to right field at home is .286
    His Isolated Power in Double-A to right field on road is .466

    That's a 63% increase in isolated power to right field on the road.
    OK.

    In ~ 600 PA at the AA level, YRod has a 63% increase in isolated power to the opposite field on the road.

    That doesn't do it for me.

  13. #39
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    OK.

    In ~ 600 PA at the AA level, YRod has a 63% increase in isolated power to the opposite field on the road.

    That doesn't do it for me.
    It just adds a little bit to the conversation. When one part of your home ballpark plays like Petco, it's worth bringing it into the conversation when you are a hitter who uses that part of the ballpark fairly regularly. Especially when you won't be taking that with you as you move up.

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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It just adds a little bit to the conversation. When one part of your home ballpark plays like Petco, it's worth bringing it into the conversation when you are a hitter who uses that part of the ballpark fairly regularly. Especially when you won't be taking that with you as you move up.
    Did all of the ballparks he's played in over his career have a corner that plays like Petco?

    Because I haven't seen great power from him anywhere. Even above average for that matter. He hasn't hit double digit home runs at any level in a given season at any point in his career. For a guy with a career .308 OBP, that's not very good. Even worse for a corner OF. Just compare him to a guy like Neftali Soto- while Yorman may have more speed and defensive ability, Soto significantly outperformed him at every level, and was the same age while doing so. Yet Soto is a fringe major league backup at best, and more likely a AAAA player.

    I'll stop hating on Yorman for now, because I am rooting hard for him and do think he has the chance to turn it around and become a very interesting player. I was very excited when the Reds signed him in August 2008. He just hasn't inspired all that much confidence to this point, and patience is starting to wear thin - especially when considering he's out of options after next season (I think).
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-19-2014 at 01:08 PM.
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  15. #41
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Did all of the ballparks he's played in over his career have a corner that plays like Petco?

    Because I haven't seen great power from him anywhere. Even above average for that matter. He hasn't hit double digit home runs at any level in a given season at any point in his career. For a guy with a career .308 OBP, that's not very good. Even worse for a corner OF. Just compare him to a guy like Neftali Soto- while Yorman may have more speed and defensive ability, Soto significantly outperformed him at every level, and was the same age while doing so. Yet Soto is a fringe major league backup at best, and more likely a AAAA player.

    I'll stop hating on Yorman for now, because I am rooting hard for him and do think he has the chance to turn it around and become a very interesting player. I was very excited when the Reds signed him in August 2008. He just hasn't inspired all that much confidence to this point, and patience is starting to wear thin - especially when considering he's out of options after next season (I think).
    Well, first off we need to recognize that he's 21, so not seeing great power from him anywhere isn't shocking at all. Outside of his year in Billings, his IsoP to right has gotten better every year of his career, which again isn't shocking considering he's gotten older.

    I'm not worried about the career numbers of a guy who is 21 and in Double-A. You may be, but what he did in the past is not nearly as important to me as what he's doing now, and what he's done in the last 13 months, sans an injured May of 2014, is far better than "a guy with a career .308 OBP".

    He's a center fielder.

    Neftali Soto, at the same age, was in Advanced-A, not already racking up 600 Double-A plate appearances. Soto hit ok that year.

    Again, I continue to think that people are undervaluing him here because "he's been around forever". I mean you said it yourself, your patience is wearing thin on a guy younger than Phillip Ervin, who was just drafted last season. Think about that for a second. You are tired of waiting around on a guy who is the same age as kids drafted last season. As for the options, that may effect him as a Reds fan, but it does not in any way effect his prospect value when it comes to rankings.

  16. #42
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Again, I continue to think that people are undervaluing him here because "he's been around forever". I mean you said it yourself, your patience is wearing thin on a guy younger than Phillip Ervin, who was just drafted last season. Think about that for a second. You are tired of waiting around on a guy who is the same age as kids drafted last season.
    So just out of curiosity, pro experience has no place in the conversation or we're just overstating its importance? Predicting Bruce to be an MVP was in vogue a few years ago because he had the pedigree and some nice seasons in his early 20s, but now it just seems like he had the reps and physical maturity to max out his ability at a younger age than most. Not saying Yorman's maxed out by any means, but it's sort of an interesting parallel to this discussion.
    Last edited by Superdude; 07-19-2014 at 01:53 PM.

  17. #43
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    So just out of curiosity, pro experience has no place in the conversation or we're just overstating it's importance? Predicting Bruce to be an MVP was in vogue a few years ago because he had the pedigree and some nice seasons in his early 20s, but now it just seems like he had the reps and physical maturity to max out his ability at a younger age than most. Not saying Yorman's maxed out by any means, but it's sort of an interesting parallel to this discussion.
    It has a small place in the conversation. 21 is still 21, pro experience or not. It's incredibly young for a guy to be at Double-A, even if they started facing other professionals at age 16. There are 200 16-year-old position players signed every year. You can count the number of guys younger than Rodriguez in Double-A and Triple-A with 100 PA or more on two hands. There are only two such guys in his own league. A few others will join that group by the end of the season with some Advanced-A call ups getting more PA though. There are four in the Texas League, and two of those guys were born within 2 days of him. So in all of Double-A, there are six guys with 100 PA younger than Yorman Rodriguez is and two of them were born within days of him.

    Jay Bruce does seem like one of those "peaked early" guys, but even he peaked four years down the road from where Yorman Rodriguez is right now (at age 25).

    I just know that the people I talk to today, and last year who see him at the Double-A level tend to really like him. Only one guy I've talked with wasn't a big fan. Liked the tools, didn't like the skills (this was last year when this conversation happened).

    Would I like to see him go out and hit .300/.360/.450+? Of course I would. But for the last year, he's hit pretty well at a level he's very young for and has shown improvements over that time while maintaining the best set of overall tools in the entire system. I will take that.

  18. #44
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    As far a hitting goes, how often does a guy who has 4 straight years of sub ~.750 OPS (I think he is averaging in the .600s overall for the 4 years) in AA or less turn out to be a good MLB hitter?

    It certainly happens and Yorman can still get it going...but that's why I don't rank him as high as others do.

    I look at the overall sample to judge him...but compare his and Winker's short stints at Bakersfield. Winker is the better prospect...but that is some difference.

  19. #45
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    Re: Baseball America's Reds Updated Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    As far a hitting goes, how often does a guy who has 4 straight years of sub ~.750 OPS (I think he is averaging in the .600s overall for the 4 years) in AA or less turn out to be a good MLB hitter?

    It certainly happens and Yorman can still get it going...but that's why I don't rank him as high as others do.

    I look at the overall sample to judge him...but compare his and Winker's short stints at Bakersfield. Winker is the better prospect...but that is some difference.
    Your first question is tough to answer because it's about context. Comparing a guy who is 18-21 playing in A-AA with those numbers to a guy who is 20-23 playing in rookie to AA with those numbers is in no way a fair comparison to make. The number of guys who fall into the age group and level group for Rodriguez is very, very small.

    Winker is a Top 30 prospect in baseball. He is among the elite of the elite. Despite playing left field, what he did there was so impressive it got him into the elite of the elite prospects in the game.

    Rodriguez hit very well in two of the three months he was in Bakersfield last year. He was brutal in May. Maybe he doesn't like May? It wasn't quite Winker like, but it was .297/.360/.559 outside of that putrid May.

    Rodriguez isn't in the class of Winker as a hitter. Winker has more power, is a better hitter, makes more contact and walks quite a bit more.

    At the same time, Winker isn't in the class of Rodriguez as a defender/base runner. Rodriguez can play center and is a very good corner outfielder with an elite level arm. He's also a plus runner. Not a good base stealer mind you, but the speed isn't something that you can teach Winker to do. It's either there or it's not.

    The advantage Winker has as a hitter over the advantage Rodriguez has on defense/running game is big enough that it keeps a decent gap between them for now (at least in my mind). But I just think that he's a better hitter than people are giving him credit for, both today and looking at the future. It's his bad May, when clearly injured, that's keeping his numbers down and thus peoples thinking about it. After April, Benihana had him 4th in the system. Then May happened and he dropped out of the top 10 and now he doesn't believe in him. It's a confusing thing given how he's actually performed in Double-A outside of May 2014.

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