I say... Sell at the deadline.

[Z-Fly]

I can't think of any examples of paying a pitcher a hefty LTC working out well for the team that did it. I guess maybe Pedro Martinez, The Braves Trio, and some others but nothing recent comes to mind.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree with you at some point the Reds have to part with some of the veteran SP but for it to improve the 2015 team it has to be for someone closer than Russell. He has 100 AB's at AA I don't see him contributing to any MLB team in 2015.

If he couldn't contribute quite a bit more than what Cozart has done this year I would be shocked.

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I can't think of any examples of paying a pitcher a hefty LTC working out well for the team that did it. I guess maybe Pedro Martinez, The Braves Trio, and some others but nothing recent comes to mind.

King Felix I suppose.

Other than that, yeah, veteran SPs cannot be trusted over a long haul.

[Chuckie]

I agree we can't keep all three of Cueto, Latos and Leake.

But the solution isn't trading Cueto. The solution is to sign Cueto and trade one of the other two at some point. Or just let things play out through the 2015 season, give Latos and Leake qualifying offers in the '15-'16 offseason ... and at the very least get draft picks for them.

I'll say it until I'm blue (red?) in the face: If the Reds find a legit starting LF in 2015, they will have everything it takes to win the World Series.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Because Russell is that good. And will be ready in 2015 and a massive improvement, immediately, on Cozart.

Because we cannot likely, sign and keep Cueto AND Leake AND Latos, and the right move is to send one of them packing for maximum return. And because I think one of Cingrani or Stephenson will be ready to step back in or step into the rotation and help cover for Cueto. No, not the same numbers, but not numbers too far off either. And Russell's improvement at SS over Cozart would even that up in any event in my view (or would have, he's gone now, of course). I wouldn't have moved Cueto for just anybody, but I sure would have for a guy who would have been that kind of impact bat for years at SS over one more year of Johnny.

I get the thought process Mem. But we don't know that Russell is "that good". He's not hit above AA ball. His numbers have dropped at every level moving up the ladder. His defense is reported to being decent but until this year there were even doubts that he'd stay on short. IMO there's enough question marks there to NOT deal Cueto for him. Samardzija, sure...but Cueto is NOT Samardzija.

You also don't know that he'd be ready to contribute in 2015. Just by looking at his numbers up the ladder, I'd guess 2016 at the earliest.

[REDREAD]

If Bailey stays healthy this will be the low point of the contract. He will just be better than he has and contracts will just get more insane.

I hope you're right. I haven't given up on Homer, but I think in 2016, we are going to wish we gave that money to another pitcher.
I just think he will be a solid #3 the rest of his career, which isn't horrible, but every year I doubt a little bit more that he will become a Cueto level pitcher.

[kbrake]

I hope you're right. I haven't given up on Homer, but I think in 2016, we are going to wish we gave that money to another pitcher.
I just think he will be a solid #3 the rest of his career, which isn't horrible, but every year I doubt a little bit more that he will become a Cueto level pitcher.

I don't think he is likely to ever be a Cueto level pitcher either but that is why he didn't get paid Cueto level dollars. I think people are understandably having a hard time adjusting to just what is reasonable money in baseball anymore.

[PepperJack]

I have said several times that my solution to the three starting pitchers is to sign one, trade one, and keep one through next season as long as the Reds are competitive.

After the season, I would offer Cueto and Latos a deal close to Bailey's(but larger), and hope one of them accepts. My feeling is that Latos would be more likely to do this, he is coming off somewhat of a down season, and has made a full-time home in Cincinnati.

If neither look like they are open to that, I would offer Leake a substantially smaller extension offer.

[WrongVerb]

I love Cueto, but at some point the Reds are going to have to start letting some of these SPs go.

Here is my question: If the Reds are planning on holding on to all of these SPs forever, why in the world has the organization put such a huge emphasis on drafting, developing and holding on to with a vice grip young starting pitchers?

I don't disagree. But I don't think Cueto is the one to move. I think Latos and Leake are. Those two (and a 5th starter) will be much easier to replace than Cueto. If Stephenson and Lorenzen are all that, if Howard comes on fast, if Lively can start finding the plate in AA, if all the others continue their development, then two or three solid major league starters should fall out of that tree allowing the team to reload. But counting on Stephenson to arrive and replace Cueto at the top of the rotation is putting too many eggs in one basket.

[RedTeamGo!]

I don't disagree. But I don't think Cueto is the one to move. I think Latos and Leake are. Those two (and a 5th starter) will be much easier to replace than Cueto. If Stephenson and Lorenzen are all that, if Howard comes on fast, if Lively can start finding the plate in AA, if all the others continue their development, then two or three solid major league starters should fall out of that tree allowing the team to reload. But counting on Stephenson to arrive and replace Cueto at the top of the rotation is putting too many eggs in one basket.

I agree, I would rather move Latos over Cueto as well. But, other teams would most likely prefer Cueto over Latos and would be more willing to part with their top prospects. I would not expect Stephenson to replace Cueto. I would expect Stephenson to replace Leake, Leake to replace Simon, Simon to replace Homer, Homer to replace Latos, and Latos to replace Cueto. If that makes sense.

Sometimes in order to take 2 steps forward you have to take on giant step backward. I think if the Reds put Cueto on the market today he would be the hottest commodity on the market and the Reds would have their pick of a top prospect package from multiple teams (including the Dodgers who its been rumored are looking for a SP).

Could you really say no to Johnny Cueto for Joc Pederson and Corey Seager?

I couldn't.

[PepperJack]

I don't disagree. But I don't think Cueto is the one to move. I think Latos and Leake are. Those two (and a 5th starter) will be much easier to replace than Cueto. If Stephenson and Lorenzen are all that, if Howard comes on fast, if Lively can start finding the plate in AA, if all the others continue their development, then two or three solid major league starters should fall out of that tree allowing the team to reload. But counting on Stephenson to arrive and replace Cueto at the top of the rotation is putting too many eggs in one basket.

Cueto is the best of the bunch, but I don't think the difference between him and Latos is astronomical. At least not if their contracts end up being a huge difference.

If Cueto wants anything north of $25 million per year, and Latos comes in closer to $20 million per, I would go with Latos. Though the Reds may pick Leake at $12-15+ per year over either.

The Reds lived without Cueto for 2013 for all intents an purposes, and still had a successful season.

[redsfandan]

Could you really say no to Johnny Cueto for Joc Pederson and Corey Seager?

I couldn't.

The Dodgers probably would.

[JMO]

Cueto for Pederson, Seager and Julio Arias. I WOULD PULL THE TRIGGER ASAP. Although the Dodgers would most likely balk at that, but Cueto would make them immediate WS Champions.

Kershaw, Cueto, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett


Trade Simon and Broxton for the best possible return as well.
Unload Ludwick
Put Latos on the block as well.

[redsfandan]

Cueto for Pederson, Seager and Julio Arias. I WOULD PULL THE TRIGGER ASAP. Although the Dodgers would most likely laugh at that, but Cueto would make them immediate WS Champions.

Kershaw, Cueto, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett


Trade Simon and Broxton for the best possible return as well.
Unload Ludwick
Put Latos on the block as well.

Fixed.

[RedTeamGo!]

The Dodgers probably would.

I am not convinced of that, they don't have room for Pederson and they have shown they are willing to do anything to win now. They are turning into the Yankees of the NL, if they need a 3B or SS next year they can just buy one.

[kbrake]

I am not convinced of that, they don't have room for Pederson and they have shown they are willing to do anything to win now. They are turning into the Yankees of the NL, if they need a 3B or SS next year they can just buy one.

That kind of a haul from the Dodgers is a case where I could get on board with trading Cueto and taking a hit on 2015. That's why I have said I would be dangling him out there to see if anyone would do something stupid.