Let's talk about Jay Bruce

[dsmith421]

There's no denying Bruce's lack of production this year. In looking at his stats, one thing really jumped out at me: his ground ball % is as high as it's ever been - much higher than his career average. Can someone smarter than me explain how this relates to his lack of production (if at all)?

In 2013, average BABIP in the Majors was .690 on line drives, .232 on ground balls, and .218 on fly balls (per Fangraphs). BABIP obviously excludes home runs, since they aren't "in play" per se. So ground balls are the least efficient and least productive type of ball in play. The shift also is problematic for Bruce given his inability to go to the opposite field with regularity.

Why, mechanically, Bruce can't get the ball in the air and is striking out at such a terrific rate is a mystery to me.

[westofyou]

Just no excuse for him to play the way he has this season, especially offensively. I don't know what to make of it. He's been a tease for so long I don't even really care anymore, I certainly don't expect anything different. He'll do this until they decide he needs a change of scenery and they grant it for him. Thanks for a few good memories and mostly disappointment I suppose.

Your words say you care... you seem to care a lot... maybe too much

[CySeymour]

Votto's power numbers have really eroded since 2010 completed. He's been healthy for a good portion of that time. But that's a separate issue.

2010 was actually somewhat of an anomaly for Votto home run wise. He was expected to hit maybe 25-30 coming out of the minors, and just happened to have a big power spike that season. Bruce was the one expected to pound 30 homers a season.

[wolfboy]

In 2013, average BABIP in the Majors was .690 on line drives, .232 on ground balls, and .218 on fly balls (per Fangraphs). BABIP obviously excludes home runs, since they aren't "in play" per se. So ground balls are the least efficient and least productive type of ball in play. The shift also is problematic for Bruce given his inability to go to the opposite field with regularity.

Why, mechanically, Bruce can't get the ball in the air and is striking out at such a terrific rate is a mystery to me.

I agree re: ground balls being more unproductive (although I'd point out that his BABIP isn't alarmingly low and could end up in line with his 2011 and 2012 seasons). But I think my question relates to your last sentence: why the sudden inability to put the ball in the air with some pop?

[Tom Servo]

I can never really wrap my head around a guy with a .800+ OPS who averages 25+ HRs a season over 7 seasons being considered a disappointment. Yeah I get it, people figured based on scouting reports, hype, and minor league numbers he would be the Joe DiMaggio that Austin Kearns was supposed to be. But once a guy is a major leaguer, all that really matters is how he performs in the major leagues. And Bruce has played at an All-Star level.

[Ironman92]

Since he returned from DL 204 PA's

.223/.271/.410/.681

I'm going to say this is his worst run of batting in his career... anywhere

And honestly....it doesn't seem like he's been that good lol

[Ironman92]

I can never really wrap my head around a guy with a .800+ OPS who averages 25+ HRs a season over 7 seasons being considered a disappointment. Yeah I get it, people figured based on scouting reports, hype, and minor league numbers he would be the Joe DiMaggio that Austin Kearns was supposed to be. But once a guy is a major leaguer, all that really matters is how he performs in the major leagues. And Bruce has played at an All-Star level.

Yeah....for a couple years he was an all-star level guy and before he was so young that we were happy to have a guy so young and so good. I still believe he's not anywhere near healthy....but regardless he's been terrible this season and surprisingly not crisp in the OF. Poor offensively, bad base running and now nothing special this year in the OF......hard to be very happy with him right now. I could see him going somewhere else and just killing it....but he'll remain a Red for a while and hopefully he gets back to his play the past 2 seasons.

[villain612]

Yeah....for a couple years he was an all-star level guy and before he was so young that we were happy to have a guy so young and so good. I still believe he's not anywhere near healthy....but regardless he's been terrible this season and surprisingly not crisp in the OF. Poor offensively, bad base running and now nothing special this year in the OF......hard to be very happy with him right now. I could see him going somewhere else and just killing it....but he'll remain a Red for a while and hopefully he gets back to his play the past 4 seasons.

Fixed that for you.

[RedFanAlways1966]

I can never really wrap my head around a guy with a .800+ OPS who averages 25+ HRs a season over 7 seasons being considered a disappointment. Yeah I get it, people figured based on scouting reports, hype, and minor league numbers he would be the Joe DiMaggio that Austin Kearns was supposed to be. But once a guy is a major leaguer, all that really matters is how he performs in the major leagues. And Bruce has played at an All-Star level.

Sports. WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY (fair or not)? And when you are 27 years old, people expect you to be in your prime. I am not sure the last 7 seasons has anything to do with a guy who is in a major hitting funk this season. And of course he is very far from an All-Star level this season. It might be the knee. But he will not receive much sympathy if it is b/c the REDS like to keep these injury things top secret as if we are talking about a new nuclear weapon.

I like Bruce, but he has been pretty bad at the plate this year. I hope he somehow gets it together this season. And I also hope those who do not think it is fair for him to receive criticism understand it is deserved THIS YEAR.

[Ironman92]

Fixed that for you.

I'm clearly a MVP voter....please try to keep up

[Kc61]

There's no denying Bruce's lack of production this year. In looking at his stats, one thing really jumped out at me: his ground ball % is as high as it's ever been - much higher than his career average. Can someone smarter than me explain how this relates to his lack of production (if at all)?

I'm not smarter than you.

But when a power hitter strokes a bunch of ground balls, it's not a good thing. The power is going directly into the ground.

Last year, Frazier had this problem. Improved this season.

This year, it's Bruce.

I think it's a combination of mechanics (swing is off) and reaching for bad pitches that you can't elevate. Pitchers are no doubt taking advantage.

Bruce will undoubtedly get over this. But who knows it will be in nine months (next season) or in seven hours (tonight's ballgame).

[Tom Servo]

Sports. WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY (fair or not)? And when you are 27 years old, people expect you to be in your prime. I am not sure the last 7 seasons has anything to do with a guy who is in a major hitting funk this season. And of course he is very far from an All-Star level this season. It might be the knee. But he will not receive much sympathy if it is b/c the REDS like to keep these injury things top secret as if we are talking about a new nuclear weapon.

I like Bruce, but he has been pretty bad at the plate this year. I hope he somehow gets it together this season. And I also hope those who do not think it is fair for him to receive criticism understand it is deserved THIS YEAR.

I was referring to the idea that he's been a disappoint as a major leaguer, sorry if I didn't make that clear. Certainly this year has been a big disappointment as it regards to Bruce.

[dsmith421]

I was referring to the idea that he's been a disappoint as a major leaguer, sorry if I didn't make that clear. Certainly this year has been a big disappointment as it regards to Bruce.

I think he's been pretty good generally but this year he's fallen flat on his face. Unfortunately, due to factors beyond his control, this is a year where he absolutely could not fall flat on his face.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I was referring to the idea that he's been a disappoint as a major leaguer, sorry if I didn't make that clear. Certainly this year has been a big disappointment as it regards to Bruce.

I mean I understand the HR's have been pretty good in 2011, 2012, 2013... but those averages; those are nothing special. In fact they're pretty pedestrian. Playing in a bandbox like we do; it isn't like he's ever hit 40+ home runs which is really what I would have hoped. Either a sub .300 guy with about the power Bruce had those years or .270 + with 40+ homers and similar or a little better RBI totals. He's constantly left people wanting more.

[SweetLou1990]

Jay Bruce has most of the Tools needed. He's gotta be recovering from knee surgery. Right?