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Thread: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?




    Disclaimer: I've never even seen Rey Navarro play an inning of baseball and I probably wouldn't know him if I tripped over him. Also this is very unlikely to happen.


    The case for Navarro: 24 year old former 3rd round pick in 2007. Has hit very well across two levels (AA, AAA) this season, and had a strong year in AA last year as well. Seemed to get it together all together at around age 22. Has hit 23 home runs and 46 doubles over his last 215 games. Does not strike out a whole lot. Is a switch hitter. Would be under team control for several years.

    The case against Navarro: He's a 24 year old former 3rd round pick in 2007 who didn't start hitting at any sort of respectable rate until 2011. Does not walk much. Defense is an unknown (at least from my perspective) as there are various conflicting reports. Could be more of a second baseman than a shortstop.

    The case for Cozart: He can play defense very well, and people seem to like him. Probably would not be a popular decision to jettison him. He's still cheap, for now.

    The case against Cozart: He is kind of a human disaster at all non-defensive elements of baseball. He can't bunt, can't steal bases, can't make good baserunning decisions, can't walk, strikeouts a lot, doesn't hit for average, and now his power is gone. He even been out-slugged and thus out OPS'ed by the recently DFA'ed Darwin Barney.




    What do you, the reader at home, think? Could Navarro be better than Cozart, and if it were up to you, would you give him the chance to be?
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    PepperJack (07-23-2014)

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    I have said several times, I am highly curious as to what Navarro could be for the Reds.

    I don't know if he has the defense to stick at SS, nor do I know if could hit well enough in the bigs to be an everyday starter. But I want to find out. His skillset could be very valuable to the Reds. Maybe he could be the backup MIF that the Reds keep around, and do it cheaper, and maybe better, than what has been ran out there the last few years. He is younger than Cozart was when he made his debut as well.


    But a SH, SS/2B with a good average, decent plate discipline, and some pop in his bat? Yeah, let me see what that looks like.

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    Red Raindog (07-23-2014)

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Keep in mind, Cozart in AAA (age 24&25) in 213 games had 56 doubles and 24 home runs. And we already KNOW what his defense is like. AAA stats should be taken with a grain of salt.
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    AmarilloRed (07-23-2014)

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    I would love to hear from someone who knows something about his defense but if he could even be adequate I would give it a shot. You could always sub Cozart in late as a defensive replacement. Reds need to take an all hands on deck offensive approach if they're going to survive another 5 weeks with Votto and Phillips.

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    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Cozart had slightly better hitting stats in AAA in 2011, generally had a better hitting pedigree before that, has since advanced to his age prime years, and had years of MLB experience to learn and develop beyond that point.

    I appreciate the outside the box thinking, but we're going to need to look outside the organization for an improvement by Cozart. At this point Cozart is at least fielding the position at a near elite level, something Navarro probably wouldn't, and to answer your original question, Navarro could outhit Cozart, but there is probably an equal or better chance he wouldn't.

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    Larkin Fan (07-23-2014), _Sir_Charles_ (07-23-2014)

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    I donīt know.. cozart has still a 1.1 WAR (thanks defense...) while he has his worst hitting year of his career (avg and his SLG are way down, his k% is pretty good for him)

    he is 15th out of all shortstops in the MLB in war... while I doubt that heīll be a great mlb player I do think that he has a place in this league (as soon as he gets expensive heīll be a utility player) and his bat could be a bit better going forward

    I donīt know if navarro could get the same results...
    "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

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    Redeyecat (07-24-2014)

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    The case for Cozart: He can play defense very well, and people seem to like him. Probably would not be a popular decision to jettison him. He's still cheap, for now.

    The case against Cozart: He is kind of a human disaster at all non-defensive elements of baseball. He can't bunt, can't steal bases, can't make good baserunning decisions, can't walk, strikeouts a lot, doesn't hit for average, and now his power is gone. He even been out-slugged and thus out OPS'ed by the recently DFA'ed Darwin Barney.




    What do you, the reader at home, think? Could Navarro be better than Cozart, and if it were up to you, would you give him the chance to be?
    Actually, and somewhat surprisingly, Cozart doesn't strike out all that much. In the NL, he's #16 in AB/SO, going about 6 ABs for every strikeout. He's #18 in SO%, 15.2%.

    As far as warts offensively, he's 71st out of 75 qualified batters in XBH% (5.0). He's also #19 in K/BB, striking out about 3 times for every walk he earns. He's #4 in Infield Flies percentages, with 20% of his flyballs being on the infield. He only walks in 5% of his plate appearances (63rd) and his line drive rate is 24%, which is good for 52nd.

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Are we talking about Navarro as a spark to help this team the rest of the year or are we talking about as a replacement for the future?

    If it's the latter, let's give it a go and see what happens. If the former, I wouldn't expect a huge surge.

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by dwyerbrg View Post
    He's #4 in Infield Flies percentages, with 20% of his flyballs being on the infield. He only walks in 5% of his plate appearances (63rd) and his line drive rate is 24%, which is good for 52nd.
    This is all you need to know. The wasted AB's are incredible because of his inability to get the ball out of the IF.

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    I just saw on baseball reference earlier that Cozart is second in all of baseball in defensive WAR. I'm not a the world's biggest fan of that statistic, but I think it has some value and thus carries weight when it is coming from your most important defensive position.
    That said, if there was an easy way to get Navarro on the 40 man, i wouldnt mind bringing him up to play 2nd over Negron.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    I just saw on baseball reference earlier that Cozart is second in all of baseball in defensive WAR. I'm not a the world's biggest fan of that statistic, but I think it has some value and thus carries weight when it is coming from your most important defensive position.
    That said, if there was an easy way to get Navarro on the 40 man, i wouldnt mind bringing him up to play 2nd over Negron.
    True, and I do think that is important, but his offensive WAR is .11, worse than everyone besides Dustin Ackley for regular players.


    For qualified batters (3.1 PA per game), only Nate Schierholtz and Evereth Cabrera in all of baseball have been worse than Cozart in terms of slash line.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Cozart has a wRC+ of 57 on the year I think Navarro could be better than that but not better than cozart defensively. I say stick with cozart for the rest of the year though.

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    i'm not sure either way. i do remember when coazart came up he put up good numbers until he hurt his arm against the braves.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by toledodan View Post
    i'm not sure either way. i do remember when coazart came up he put up good numbers until he hurt his arm against the braves.
    He started off with a good 11 games, but he was never really expected to hit for an average or get on base. He had solid pop, and good pop for a shortstop. He is the catcher of shortstops. Has some power, can field but can't hit.

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    Re: Could Rey Navarro outperform Zack Cozart?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He started off with a good 11 games, but he was never really expected to hit for an average or get on base. He had solid pop, and good pop for a shortstop. He is the catcher of shortstops. Has some power, can field but can't hit.
    Reds and Padres have the lowest SS OPS in the league, as I said in another thread, this is a real issue for the Reds IMO.

    What's interesting to me is Cozart's power reduction. His SLG has gone from .399 in 2012 to .381 to .296. So he's over .100 points reduced in SLG over two years. His ISO power is down from .153 to .127 to, this year, .069.

    Normally you might expect a spike in ground ball rate. Not so. His batted ball rates have not significantly changed, indeed he's hitting fewer ground balls this year.

    He is a fairly good contact hitter, doesn't K that much. His swinging outside the zone has gone from 28.9% to 30.9% to 32% which may be relevant. But these numbers don't seem extreme, Frazier swings outside the zone at 33.9%, Mes 33.1%.

    Maybe he's just lost power for some reason. Or maybe it's simply that, just bad luck, he has only 2 homers this year, very low for him and pulling his power numbers down. Any thoughts on this?
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-24-2014 at 04:03 PM.


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