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Thread: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

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    Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    4-6 stretch, Reds now 55 W, 55 L, trail Brewers by 5.5 games, trail Pirates by 4, trail Cards by 3.5. Reds four games over .500 at home, four games under .500 away. Reds RS/RA at +13. In Wild Card race Reds 4 games behind the two leaders, Pirates and Giants, and Reds also trail Cards and trail Braves (by 2.5). Reds with 1 game lead on Marlins, 2 on Mets in WC. Reds 17-24 in one-run games, now with most one-run losses in MLB by wide margin (Mets and Royals with 21). Phillips and Votto still out on DL, Partch down, Hannahan up. Bruce missed three on bereavement list. Reds back to 12 pitchers and 5-man bench.

    Offense - Reds team OPS now .673, tied with Mets for 12th-13th in NL. Last time was .689, so OPS declined by 16 points this past stretch. Reds BA now 12th at .241, OBP now 13th-14th at .301 (tied with Cubs), SLG now .372, eleventh in league. On park adjusted basis, Reds wRC+ for non-pitchers is 92, tied with Cubs for 13th-14th in NL. Only team worse is Padres.

    By positions, based on ESPN stats including starters and backups --

    NL catcher OPS averages .702. Reds second with .826.
    NL first base OPS averages .774. Reds tenth with .737.
    NL second base OPS averages .680. Reds ninth with .668.
    NL third base OPS averages .730. Reds second with .774.
    NL shortstop OPS averages .695. Reds fifteenth with .560
    NL left field OPS averages .716. Reds eleventh with .695.
    NL center field OPS averages .723. Reds eleventh with .667.
    NL right field OPS averages .744. Reds thirteenth with .636.
    NL pitcher OPS averages .308. Reds seventh with .294.
    NL DH (few PAs involved) OPS averages .589. Reds eleventh with .513.
    NL pinch hitters (listed by BA) average .210. Reds fourth in NL with .250.

    Mesoraco now at 280 PAs with .939 OPS, Frazier at .800, injured Votto at .799, next best Ludwick at .717. Of position players, last fourteen days Mes at .821, next best Pena at .667 with Ludwick .656 and Negron .650. All others below .600 during that period.

    Pitching - Reds team ERA is now sixth in NL at 3.39 improved from 3.51 last time. Starters on a roll now 3.25 ERA, third in league trailing Dodgers (3.19) and Nats (3.24). Improvement from 3.37 last time. Relievers also improved, were 3.86 now 3.73, were at or near bottom now twelfth in NL with nice jump.

    Reds FIP now 3.87 tenth in NL with xFIP now eighth at 3.67. Team pitching WAR is seventh in NL (Fangraphs) at 8.8. Reds starters fWAR sixth in NL at 7.0, Reds relievers fWAR sixth at 1.8.

    Reds with seventh most saves in NL, 32, tied for 6th-8th in NL in blown saves with 14, Reds tied for 10th-11th in holds with 53. Reds with 71 quality starts, tied with Brewers for second most in NL, Braves with 77. Reds way ahead of Cards (57) and Pirates (55) in quality starts.

    Reds now with large number of pitchers below 4.00 ERA, with Bailey a recent addition at 3.89. Of currently active pitchers, only Hoover worse than 4.00 with 5.40 ERA. Cueto and Simon both 12-6, with respective ERAs of 2.05 and 2.84. Cingrani on DL at 2-8 WL, and Hoover active at 1-8 WL, total 3-16 so rest of pitchers collectively 52-39.

    Cueto second in NL in ERA among qualifiers trailing only Kershaw. Cueto second in NL in Ks, 166, one K behind leader Strasburg. For qualifiers, Cueto second in WHIP at 0.92 trailing only Kershaw. 12 wins for Cueto and Simon trail only three NL pitchers with 13. Cueto second in NL in pitching WAR (ESPN) 4.5, Kershaw leads. Chapman leads all NL pitchers in K rate with 17.58 and has pitched 47 consecutive games in relief with at least one K. Among NL relievers (Fangraphs) Chapman with highest WAR at 2.1 despite only 35 appearances due to injury.

    Fielding - Reds with 52 errors, still fewest in NL, Cards next with 55. Reds now well ahead in NL in team UZR with 33.7 and UZR/150 with 8.0. Reds first in NL at SS UZR by wide margin, 13.4 over, 8.5 (Braves). Reds also first in NL at CF UZR with 16.3 leading DBacks at 12.8 and Cards 11.2. Reds lowest positions in UZR are RF, twelfth, with -5.7, and first base, twelfth, at -2.0. No UZR ratings for catchers, Fangraphs does have a Def ranking showing Reds catchers eighth in NL at 8.5 with Nats leading at 14.4 and DBacks last at 5.5.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-03-2014 at 10:54 AM.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    I know there are several threads where the below comments may be appropriate, but the stats posted above and the drop in team offense to new lows over the last 10 games makes this seem like an appropriate place to me.

    It's incredible to me that a team this woeful across the board on offense would allow the trade deadline to pass without even a nominal attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. I love the lefty contingent this team runs out there. An offensive minded minor leaguer who has never hit at AAA, an offensive minded supersub who hasn't had an OPS+ above 100 since 2009. My favorite of the bunch is the defensive specialist who plays corner IF who physically can't throw.

    I'm skeptical that minor league journeymen like Felix Perez and Rey Navarro would succeed in the big leagues, but I see no excuse for not at least giving them a look at this point. I get that trades are hard to make and we don't want to burn our prospects, but rushing a guy like Hannahan back out of desperation is preferable to giving a couple of guys having good years (one of whom is only 24 and plays positions which are the organization's clearest glaring weakness) and cost nothing a look?

    Sorry. but this smacks of apathy on the organization's part and I can't believe they don't try something to improve the product. Activating a guy who can't even throw smells a lot like a team not even caring enough about it's customers to try.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    What I see from those stats is the obvious offensive deficiencies but just as important, for all the talk of how great the pitching is why are they just slightly above middle of the road in the NL in almost every category?

    I am not a stats expert like some so it's an honest question, I could be way off base here but it jumped out at me. I would love to hear from those who are more in tune with the advanced pitching stats.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    What I see from those stats is the obvious offensive deficiencies but just as important, for all the talk of how great the pitching is why are they just slightly above middle of the road in the NL in almost every category?

    I am not a stats expert like some so it's an honest question, I could be way off base here but it jumped out at me. I would love to hear from those who are more in tune with the advanced pitching stats.
    Marc, in doing this today I came to the opposite conclusion as you. Perhaps it doesn't come through in my OP.

    The pitching and defense has held up remarkably well considering their lack of offensive support. While some of the pitching stats (FIP) aren't great, when you look at the inter-related pitching and defense, you see a very strong run prevention unit with a very strong record.

    I didn't include this, but the Reds have scored, and have allowed, the third fewest runs in the league. Third fewest allowed is a really fine statistic in a pitching dominant league.

    Note -- allowing the third fewest runs in the league, while having the sixth best ERA, reflects that the Reds are allowing very few unearned runs, a tribute to the defense.

    The other thing that came out to me is how this organization is just incredibly wedded to the same players. Maybe I'm incorrect, but upon a quick read, I don't think they have added a single player to the Reds MLB roster who wasn't in the organization in spring training.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-03-2014 at 10:27 AM.

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    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Marc, in doing this today I came to the opposite conclusion as you. Perhaps it doesn't come through in my OP.

    The pitching and defense has held up remarkably well considering their lack of offensive support. While some of the pitching stats (FIP) aren't great, when you look at the inter-related pitching and defense, you see a very strong run prevention unit with a very strong record.

    I didn't include this, but the Reds have scored, and have allowed, the third fewest runs in the league. Third fewest allowed is a really fine statistic. Even the bullpen which began slowly has picked things up now that it's healthier. Starters with third best ERA in the NL.

    The other thing that came out to me is how this organization is just incredibly wedded to the same players. Maybe I'm incorrect, but upon a quick read, I don't think they have added a single player to the Reds MLB roster who wasn't in the organization in spring training.
    Thanks.

    I see that in absolute terms the total run prevention effort is amongst the best in baseball and at the end of the day that is all that matters.

    When I looked at the components of that run prevention I saw the staff as a whole in the "minus stats" (ERA-, FIP-, etc) were more middle of the road so obviously that leads me to believe the reds are excellent at defense and generally above average (as a team) at pitching.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Thanks.

    I see that in absolute terms the total run prevention effort is amongst the best in baseball and at the end of the day that is all that matters.

    When I looked at the components of that run prevention I saw the staff as a whole in the "minus stats" (ERA-, FIP-, etc) were more middle of the road so obviously that leads me to believe the reds are excellent at defense and generally above average (as a team) at pitching.
    When you look at run prevention, it's hard to ask for more than the Reds have provided IMO. You are right, it may be more defense than "pure" pitching, but it's hard to separate out.

    My only criticism about the pitching/defense this year is that I don't think you should have two pitchers who are 3-16 WL. Reds probably should have used them differently or been more aggressive in replacing them, in retrospect.

    But look, at the end of the day, it's patently obvious where the main problem on this club is, I don't think anyone would argue that point. Thanks for the thoughtful comments.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-03-2014 at 11:01 AM.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I know there are several threads where the below comments may be appropriate, but the stats posted above and the drop in team offense to new lows over the last 10 games makes this seem like an appropriate place to me.

    It's incredible to me that a team this woeful across the board on offense would allow the trade deadline to pass without even a nominal attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. I love the lefty contingent this team runs out there. An offensive minded minor leaguer who has never hit at AAA, an offensive minded supersub who hasn't had an OPS+ above 100 since 2009. My favorite of the bunch is the defensive specialist who plays corner IF who physically can't throw.

    I'm skeptical that minor league journeymen like Felix Perez and Rey Navarro would succeed in the big leagues, but I see no excuse for not at least giving them a look at this point. I get that trades are hard to make and we don't want to burn our prospects, but rushing a guy like Hannahan back out of desperation is preferable to giving a couple of guys having good years (one of whom is only 24 and plays positions which are the organization's clearest glaring weakness) and cost nothing a look?

    Sorry. but this smacks of apathy on the organization's part and I can't believe they don't try something to improve the product. Activating a guy who can't even throw smells a lot like a team not even caring enough about it's customers to try.

    Post this in the Enquirer notes..... send it to John Fay and have him do a write up, or many Rosecrans or I do not care if it's the guy who writes the Morning Line.

    Along with what KC wrote about being wedded to it's players, I would love for someone to directly ask Walt and Bob C about this.

    I think they think they deal with a majority of a fan base who only comes out to watch Votto, Phillips and Chapman. Too dumb to understand or see what a lot of people here see, so no point explaining it to them or what their reasoning is.

    Walt has done a very good job since coming here in most respects, but in a few others he has been very bad and has reached the point where the bad is starting to outweigh the good.
    There were reasons why he was let go in St. Louis....... but I never saw inertia and paralyzed by fear as one of them.

    It also goes hand and hand with some of Buckley's previous drafts that yielded some of the worst hitting prospects since I do not know when, and has basically hurt the big league club these last few years.

    I don't believe that they believe they are in it. They just want us to think they are and make sure those fans who sit on a fence or do not really delve too deeply into these kind of things....keep on coming in.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    It's amazing how quickly we've come back to the pack in terms of team defense. Playing guys out of position regularly will do that.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    It's amazing how quickly we've come back to the pack in terms of team defense. Playing guys out of position regularly will do that.
    Charles, in UZR rating the Reds have actually been expanding their lead in defense. In errors it's become closer but Reds still lead.

    I agree with you for some positions: first base (no Votto) and third base (Frazier not always there) and, of course, second base have become shakier. But overall the defense is still very good, thanks mostly to Cozart and Hamilton in key positions.

    But again, I think we will remember 2014 as a season where the pitching and defense were at a very high level and it was an opportunity wasted, assuming things don't change dramatically in August and September.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-03-2014 at 12:35 PM.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Great SP, great closer and setup man, great defense....everything else has been very bad.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    11th, 11th, 13th in the OF is a back-breaker.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Man. They gave up the third fewest runs in the league. All it would have taken was health, and one or two shrewd additions.

    Sigh. Get 'em next year.
    "Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    What exactly must Hoover do to get demoted?

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 110 Games, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    What exactly must Hoover do to get demoted?
    Lose the demeaning pics of Price


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