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Thread: From What I have Heard

  1. #31
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    The team has been battling a typhoon of injuries all year, so my expectations have remained pretty low, so a move to get better for 2015 is fine with me.

    Dropping 6 in a row kind of took the sail of adding pieces to make a run this year.

    Simon is a great asset to move this year before the deadline. I wouldn't count on him replicating this season next year.
    Last edited by villain612; 07-25-2014 at 04:55 PM.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

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  3. #32
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Choo?
    I suppose so. Though trading away two plus up-the-middle defenders with light bats wasn't exactly mortgaging the future. Unless you're of the mind that Didi is likely to be a reliable every day SS, I'm not sure he risked all that much.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #33
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Choo is the only one I can think of. And he wasn't exactly a big risk.
    Unless you consider Broxton and Marshall.. they came over as short timers.
    Not disagreeing with you at all. It's a good point.

    However, I will say this.. IF the Reds can get a rental player at 2b, 1b, or OF for a C level prospect with a short time commitment that is close to an average level starter,
    that would help a lot. That would be worth doing.
    I think where I take issue is the idea of something helping "a lot".

    - How many wins do we think the team as currently constructed will win? Considering the injuries and the over-performances, let's say they keep up their pace thus far and win 31 of their remaining 61. That's 82 wins. (this is also what BP and Fangraphs' projections have the Reds at -- well, 81 for FG)
    - If the team played .557 ball the rest of the way, a pace exceeded only by Milwaukee (.563) and San Fransisco (.569) thus far in NL, the Reds would win 85 games.
    - How many wins will it take to win the 2nd wild card game? 88? That would require a .607 pace, one exceeded by only the Athletics.

    In short, unless the Reds make trades that make them the best team in baseball, it's not going to shift the odds sufficiently to make a short-term move worthwhile, solely in the context of making the playoffs this year. What's adding 6 wins of talent in 60 games? It's adding 16 wins in 160. The Reds would have to improve their roster by a Mike Trout and a Clayton Kershaw to hit that 88 projected wins. Adding 2 or 3 league average players improves the team by about 2 wins.

    If one has what I would call a realistic appreciation for the quality of the team as currently constructed and the set of likely outcomes for the season, it's quite hard to justify any sort of short-term play. Now, if you can flip a few borderline prospects who are virtually fungible for an extra win or two, fine, it's hardly worth complaining about. But giving up real talent for a short-term play at a long shot strikes me as the way you slip in to prolonged mediocrity. Just ask the Royals.

    I know that Castellini wouldn't approve, but I'd be shopping Broxton, Parra, Ludwick, and maybe even Mike Leake. Let guys get healthy and try again next year. Don't throw good money after bad.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-25-2014 at 05:31 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  6. #34
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I would not spend one dime or one prospect on a rental player for this year.

    Everything needs to be focused on next season.

    If an acquisition also helps in 2014, all the better. Great. But IMO the Reds are too far behind to spend resources on this year.

    Focusing on games behind, number of teams ahead, and the expected time for Votto's rehab and to a lesser extent Phillips' rehab.
    I guess I Was thinking it would be ok to send a few Donnie Joseph level prospects to get rental help this year... none of the big prospects.
    Or heck, get Barney if he's free (passes waivers or whatever it's called).
    The Pirates didn't really give up a lot last year to get Morneau and Byrd, IIRC.
    Because honestly, having the entire bench starting and then overmatched AAA guys on the bench (with Leake as a PH option) is just not fun to watch.
    The bottom of this roster is so horrible, that it would be easy to make a modest upgrade..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #35
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I guess I Was thinking it would be ok to send a few Donnie Joseph level prospects to get rental help this year... none of the big prospects.
    Or heck, get Barney if he's free (passes waivers or whatever it's called).
    The Pirates didn't really give up a lot last year to get Morneau and Byrd, IIRC.
    Because honestly, having the entire bench starting and then overmatched AAA guys on the bench (with Leake as a PH option) is just not fun to watch.
    The bottom of this roster is so horrible, that it would be easy to make a modest upgrade..
    I'd like to see some new guys too. But the sound thing to do is focus on next year primarily.

    We'll see what the Reds do. Even the "continuity and patience" folks in the organization probably realize that some level of change needs to happen at some point.

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  9. #36
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    I think Simon, Leake, and Broxton all have cache enough to net someone of value.

    Even if the op is just rumor mongering, it's a solid strategy.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  10. #37
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Youre a pointless poster! But I think you're right and got the sense a few weeks that any moves made would be buy low hope high type deals.
    WOW...LOL!!!

  11. #38
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    More bits in the ether.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  12. #39
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Jayson Stark has heard something similar, but not really:


    Will the Reds be buyers or sellers? Any big names you see move from the Reds if they do sell?
    Jayson Stark (1:27 PM)

    They're buying, last I heard. Even after losing six in a row, they're still alive in the division and the wild card. They'd prefer a guy they can control next year, too, though. So Marlon Byrd or someone like Ben Zobrist are both fits.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  14. #40
    I don't want to grow up Red Raindog's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Come on guys, he is mrherd05, emphasizing the mr to all you skeptics.
    I couldn't help myself -- and we've probably all made posts/predictions/comments that could haunt us -- but I looked at some of the OP's older posts --- predicted Hamilton would be with another team in 2012 and said No to trading Stubbs for Choo ....

    like I said we've all been wrong -- except Raisor of course - who will change reality if needed
    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

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  16. #41
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Stubbs is actually have a pretty good year so far, to the tune of a .833 OPS in limited time.I'd still make the trade, and he's about to get expensive. Choo was a very big part of making the playoffs that year.

    I think the OP makes a lot of sense.
    Last edited by AmarilloRed; 07-25-2014 at 07:44 PM.

  17. #42
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Raindog View Post
    I couldn't help myself -- and we've probably all made posts/predictions/comments that could haunt us -- but I looked at some of the OP's older posts --- predicted Hamilton would be with another team in 2012 and said No to trading Stubbs for Choo ....

    like I said we've all been wrong -- except Raisor of course - who will change reality if needed

    Fair enough. Those, however, were opinions, not things that I have heard from someone who would know.

    I assure you, you would be SHOCKED who my source was, but thats cool.

    We shall see how it plays out.

  18. #43
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by mrherd05 View Post
    Fair enough. Those, however, were opinions, not things that I have heard from someone who would know.

    I assure you, you would be SHOCKED who my source was, but thats cool.

    We shall see how it plays out.
    See I like stuff like this. I take it at face value, but it is fun to maybe possibly have inside info.

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  20. #44
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    So I guess Rosie Red DOES kiss and tell...

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  22. #45
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    This isn't so hard to believe. Anybody who is signed for 2015 would qualify. David Price anyone?

    They can add to this year's team while still helping 2015. I'd still say it will be someone along the lines of Byrd or Zobrist with some secondary prospects as main pieces. Guys like Moscot, Corcino, Guilllon, SMB, possibly Y-Rod. No Stephenson, Lorenzen, Winker, Ervin. Probably not Lively or Travieso but maybe. Reds can make a pretty decent package for a team starved for youth (Philly?) without touching their top guys.

    Edit: Of course this is if they do anything at all.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-25-2014 at 09:03 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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