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Thread: From What I have Heard

  1. #46
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Well whoever the source is.... it makes sense. If you are not buying, you have to sell some stuff. I have no problem with it. I am not some run of the mill fly by night bandwagon fan.

    I know the score. I understand injuries have derailed this season and some people are just not performing to help at all. It is not like they will do anything close to a fire sale.

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  4. #47
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Stubbs is actually have a pretty good year so far, to the tune of a .833 OPS in limited time.I'd still make the trade, and he's about to get expensive. Choo was a very big part of making the playoffs that year.

    I think the OP makes a lot of sense.
    he is a product of Coors field. Nothing more. You can't buy that junk based on Colorado Home field mirage.

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  6. #48
    Member RedLegsToday's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Isn't Stubbs home OPS about 1 million, and his road OPS near 0.000?

  7. #49
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegsToday View Post
    Isn't Stubbs home OPS about 1 million, and his road OPS near 0.000?
    Pretty close to that:

    Home: .427 wOBA (145 wRC+ -- Miguel Cabrera)
    Road: .277 wOBA (72 wRC+ -- Adeiny Hechavarria)
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  9. #50
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    I will say, and this is just an observation...

    But one acquisition of a good hitting outfielder who will be here (or be ready) in 2015 and there is a clear path paved for Jay Bruce to leave Cincinnati in the next year.

  10. #51
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    You don't have to sell the future or 2015 away to make an impact to this Offense with a trade for Marlon Byrd. How much can he really cost?
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    REDREAD (07-27-2014)

  12. #52
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think where I take issue is the idea of something helping "a lot".

    - How many wins do we think the team as currently constructed will win? Considering the injuries and the over-performances, let's say they keep up their pace thus far and win 31 of their remaining 61. That's 82 wins. (this is also what BP and Fangraphs' projections have the Reds at -- well, 81 for FG)
    - If the team played .557 ball the rest of the way, a pace exceeded only by Milwaukee (.563) and San Fransisco (.569) thus far in NL, the Reds would win 85 games.
    - How many wins will it take to win the 2nd wild card game? 88? That would require a .607 pace, one exceeded by only the Athletics.

    In short, unless the Reds make trades that make them the best team in baseball, it's not going to shift the odds sufficiently to make a short-term move worthwhile, solely in the context of making the playoffs this year. What's adding 6 wins of talent in 60 games? It's adding 16 wins in 160. The Reds would have to improve their roster by a Mike Trout and a Clayton Kershaw to hit that 88 projected wins. Adding 2 or 3 league average players improves the team by about 2 wins.

    If one has what I would call a realistic appreciation for the quality of the team as currently constructed and the set of likely outcomes for the season, it's quite hard to justify any sort of short-term play. Now, if you can flip a few borderline prospects who are virtually fungible for an extra win or two, fine, it's hardly worth complaining about. But giving up real talent for a short-term play at a long shot strikes me as the way you slip in to prolonged mediocrity. Just ask the Royals.

    I know that Castellini wouldn't approve, but I'd be shopping Broxton, Parra, Ludwick, and maybe even Mike Leake. Let guys get healthy and try again next year. Don't throw good money after bad.
    That's not how it works. You don't play these games on paper.

    The REDS have demonstrated all too well that this game is played between the ears, not the baselines, not fangraphs, not WAR, nor any other stat one wants to throw up there...ESPECIALLY,... in August, September and October.

    Any team can win 20 games in August if an infusion of new blood enters the equation. Make that new blood an impact bat on this team and they might wake up.

    Jockety is a fool to not take advantage of the year Cueto is having. He would dominate a post-season run...with Chapman/Broxton closing.

    Phillps' injury proved how valuable his Defense is to this team. No stat geek can measure it, but it's obvious to anyone watching.

    I'd trade our 2012 and 2013 1st Round picks a long time ago to help this 2014 team. We don't need them. For what purpose do we need them? When Votto and Cueto are crippled and four-fifths of this team is gone. What we'd get in return we could keep and we could still deal Simon.

    Jockety tries too hard to not get ripped off and too many times ends up getting nothing since he's been a RED. There's been a few windows that have opened and closed since he's been here and this was the best year he ever had to win it all. But, all he wants to do is keep his cushy job.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 07-26-2014 at 01:03 AM.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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  14. #53
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think where I take issue is the idea of something helping "a lot".

    - How many wins do we think the team as currently constructed will win? Considering the injuries and the over-performances, let's say they keep up their pace thus far and win 31 of their remaining 61. That's 82 wins. (this is also what BP and Fangraphs' projections have the Reds at -- well, 81 for FG)
    - If the team played .557 ball the rest of the way, a pace exceeded only by Milwaukee (.563) and San Fransisco (.569) thus far in NL, the Reds would win 85 games.
    - How many wins will it take to win the 2nd wild card game? 88? That would require a .607 pace, one exceeded by only the Athletics.

    In short, unless the Reds make trades that make them the best team in baseball, it's not going to shift the odds sufficiently to make a short-term move worthwhile, solely in the context of making the playoffs this year.
    There are 60 games left. Playing .600+ ball for 60 games is very achievable, even with the team as it is right now, assuming Phillips gets back soon. Teams go on .600+ 60 game runs every year, especially after the make a solid addition at the trade deadline. Add in the fact that the Brewers haven't played any west coast games yet, and that the Cards are in just as as bad of shape as the Reds, and the Pirates are the Pirates, and it's very likely that this division will be won with less than 90 games.

    I do think it would be wise to sell off some parts at the deadline, but that more because it's a sellers market, I think the Reds still have a good chance to win the division, if the right moves are made. I'm just not sure the Reds can afford to pay that price.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  16. #54
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I will say, and this is just an observation...

    But one acquisition of a good hitting outfielder who will be here (or be ready) in 2015 and there is a clear path paved for Jay Bruce to leave Cincinnati in the next year.
    It's not nice to tease.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  17. #55
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by mrherd05 View Post
    Fair enough. Those, however, were opinions, not things that I have heard from someone who would know.

    I assure you, you would be SHOCKED who my source was, but thats cool.

    We shall see how it plays out.
    I'm suprised your imaginary friend told you anything of importance!

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  19. #56
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    That's not how it works. You don't play these games on paper.

    The REDS have demonstrated all too well that this game is played between the ears, not the baselines, not fangraphs, not WAR, nor any other stat one wants to throw up there...ESPECIALLY,... in August, September and October.

    Any team can win 20 games in August if an infusion of new blood enters the equation. Make that new blood an impact bat on this team and they might wake up.

    Jockety is a fool to not take advantage of the year Cueto is having. He would dominate a post-season run...with Chapman/Broxton closing.

    Phillps' injury proved how valuable his Defense is to this team. No stat geek can measure it, but it's obvious to anyone watching.

    I'd trade our 2012 and 2013 1st Round picks a long time ago to help this 2014 team. We don't need them. For what purpose do we need them? When Votto and Cueto are crippled and four-fifths of this team is gone. What we'd get in return we could keep and we could still deal Simon.

    Jockety tries too hard to not get ripped off and too many times ends up getting nothing since he's been a RED. There's been a few windows that have opened and closed since he's been here and this was the best year he ever had to win it all. But, all he wants to do is keep his cushy job.
    The game is not played between the ears. It's played on the field -- on the field where things like runs matter. I'm sure psychology matters a lot. But ask Kevin Towers in Arizona how well it works to build a team around psychology.

    Any team can win 20 games in August if it gets an infusion? Really? Says who? Because you assert it, the presence of new blood is the key factor? What if a team doesn't get an infusion, does that mean it can't win 20 games?

    Cueto would dominate a post-season run? You can tell this now? I bet that's how we felt in 2012 too when he pitched a grand total of 1/3 of an inning. I bet we felt pretty good in 2010 too... before we got no-hit that is. The playoffs are a small handful of games that are completely unpredictable. Acting otherwise is silly and ignorant of history.

    All of those things you talk about carry odds with them. We can't know those odds exactly, but we can make educated guesses based on history. And we can use those numbers to make smarter decisions. You can talk all you want about how making trades can help the odds of the team making a run and I would agree with you completely. The question is how much and at what cost. Show your work. What do you think the odds of the Reds winning 20 games in August are given their current roster? Now, add your middle of the line up bat. What are the new odds? I'm sorry if putting numbers on things gets knickers in a twist, but baseball isn't magic. We can use numbers to better understand our own logic.

    While my math surely over-simplified things, the reality is that you have a team sitting at .500, in fourth place behind three other quality squads and with two of its best players out for most of the rest of the seasons. Adding a few marginal upgrades simply does not change the odds very much.

    It's fun to talk about throwing caution in to the wind to make a run at it this year. You'd trade our 2012 and 2013 1st round picks. Well, that's a strategy you can only do every other year and which leaves your organization short of cheap, elite talent of its own. If we pursued your strategy, we'd have no Jay Bruce, no Devin Mesoraco, no Mike Leake, no Homer Bailey, and no Todd Frazier. Yours is a recipe for building an expensive team you can't afford to keep together. Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% in support of striking while the iron is hot to make a run. But you cannot do it every year. You have to pick your spots where you shift the odds enough to make the cost truly worth it. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the iron is not hot right now.

    A plan that involves having to play .600 ball to sniff the playoffs is not a plan I want to get behind. Playing .600 ball from this point forward is not impossible. But even .600 ball gets us to just 87 wins -- quite likely still on the outside looking in. We'd need .650 ball to reach 90 wins. Again, not impossible, but extremely unlikely. Even if the Reds add a lot of talent this afternoon, it's pretty unlikely they are the best team in baseball moving forward. If you truly believe that this team is a trade or two away from true contention, put some numbers of your own out there, something you can be held accountable against.

    Significantly weakening the organization to take a long shot is poor management; I'm glad Jocketty seems to get that. It's really easy to take big risks when you're not the one responsible for the aftermath of likely failure. Jocketty may lose his job, but you'll still be around next summer to assert again that the only thing preventing the Reds from winning the World Series is one more bat and better execution between their ears.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-26-2014 at 10:56 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  21. #57
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by mrherd05 View Post
    Fair enough. Those, however, were opinions, not things that I have heard from someone who would know.

    I assure you, you would be SHOCKED who my source was, but thats cool.

    We shall see how it plays out.
    Can you please ask your source if it's true or not that Votto did have an above knee amputation, so we can dispel with the conspiracy theories that keep cropping up here?

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  23. #58
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There are 60 games left. Playing .600+ ball for 60 games is very achievable, even with the team as it is right now, assuming Phillips gets back soon. Teams go on .600+ 60 game runs every year, especially after the make a solid addition at the trade deadline. Add in the fact that the Brewers haven't played any west coast games yet, and that the Cards are in just as as bad of shape as the Reds, and the Pirates are the Pirates, and it's very likely that this division will be won with less than 90 games.

    I do think it would be wise to sell off some parts at the deadline, but that more because it's a sellers market, I think the Reds still have a good chance to win the division, if the right moves are made. I'm just not sure the Reds can afford to pay that price.
    I sincerely hope that the Reds front office does not think this way. It is unrealistic. Even with Phillips there is not one objective fact about the Reds that supports a .600 winning percentage over two months of baseball.

    There's always "hope" if you are mathematically within reach but you can't plan a ballclub on the basis of "hope."

    Realistically, you focus on 2015 and if lightening strikes in 2014 (highly unlikely) you are thankful for the good luck. You don't use assets to fight the battle of nearly lost causes.

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  25. #59
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I sincerely hope that the Reds front office does not think this way. It is unrealistic. Even with Phillips there is not one objective fact about the Reds that supports a .600 winning percentage over two months of baseball.

    There's always "hope" if you are mathematically within reach but you can't plan a ballclub on the basis of "hope."

    Realistically, you focus on 2015 and if lightening strikes in 2014 (highly unlikely) you are thankful for the good luck. You don't use assets to fight the battle of nearly lost causes.
    Reds played .670 baseball for their final 82 games in 2011, mostly without Joey Votto. Very similar team.

    More importantly, no one in the division is playing well right now.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  27. #60
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    Re: From What I have Heard

    A plan that involves having to play .600 ball to sniff the playoffs is not a plan I want to get behind. Playing .600 ball from this point forward is not impossible. But even .600 ball gets us to just 87 wins -- quite likely still on the outside looking in. We'd need .650 ball to reach 90 wins. Again, not impossible, but extremely unlikely. Even if the Reds add a lot of talent this afternoon, it's pretty unlikely they are the best team in baseball moving forward. If you truly believe that this team is a trade or two away from true contention, put some numbers of your own out there, something you can be held accountable against.
    Reds just lost 7 games in a row. That changed the odds greatly. If they were to win the next 7 in a row, they would the. have to play .550 ball to get to 88 wins.

    That might sound highly improbable, but last week, it would have sounded just as improbable that the Reds would be at .500 right now.

    The odds were quite different last week, and likely will be different in another week. Teams go on big winning and losing streaks all the time. Assuming the Reds are a .500 talent team, incapable of making a big run, because of their current record is misguided, in my opinion.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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