Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 17

Thread: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playoffs?

  1. #1
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    988

    Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playoffs?

    Let's stipulate two things.

    Reds don't make any deals before the deadline.

    And Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips come back at the end of August.

    I chose August 26th because it is one month from today. I know the 7 game losing streak took the wind out of all the playoff talk, but the second wild card spot really does keep things possible for a team like the Reds. As it stands now, they're 3 games back in the WC, 5.5 in the division (depending on what MIL does tonight).

    Obviously, if they keep playing the way they have in the past week, then their season is done. But I think it's fair to assume that Hamilton, Frazier, Mesoraco, and even Bruce won't continue this for the rest of the season.


    So one month from today, when we get our guys back, how close do we need to be in the division and wild card standings to have a shot at a September run.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,000

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Others have mentioned having to play well over .600 ball from here on in. They've not done that except in minute stretches this season. My recommendation? Just enjoy the performances of the players.

  4. #3
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,383

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Within 5 games of first place, they should be fine.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  5. Likes:

    AmarilloRed (07-26-2014), Roy Tucker (07-26-2014)

  6. #4
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,684

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Others have mentioned having to play well over .600 ball from here on in. They've not done that except in minute stretches this season. My recommendation? Just enjoy the performances of the players.
    They played .667 ball over an entire month this season. Just last month.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #5
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,510

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    On August 26, there need to be in Cincinnati to play the Cubs. If they are not there then they have real problems.

  8. Likes:

    KYExtemper (07-26-2014), RedsManRick (07-26-2014), villain612 (07-26-2014)

  9. #6
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,489

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    If you aren't within 3 games with a month left, it's not a good bet to expect to make the playoffs. Yes, things can happen and three games doesn't seem like a big margin, but it really is.

  10. Likes:

    757690 (07-26-2014)

  11. #7
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,000

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    They played .667 ball over an entire month this season. Just last month.
    Bruce is going to have to turn into a 1.100 OPS player for the next two months.

  12. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,038

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    It comes down to what you mean by realistic. What odds count as realistic?

    Coming in to today's game, BP's Odds Report had the Reds at a 20% chance to make the playoffs. For me, that's pretty much the dividing line. But if we're at 30 games left, I think Doug is probably about right. If you're not within 3 games of that spot, it's awfully hard to be optimistic.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #9
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,860

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Look at the offense since the AS break. They are going to have to win a whole lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games to stay in contention - the subs they have just aren't that good as everyday players. Every one is primarily a glove first guy. I'd agree with Doug. 3 games with 30 to go is hard to overcome. So is having to climb 3 teams. Even the 2nd WC is a long shot if there are 3 games and multiple teams ahead. I'd say they have to gain 3 games between now and the last week of August to have any real shot at all.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  14. #10
    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    overland park, kansas
    Posts
    1,947

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Be within 3 games and have votto and Phillips back healthy.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

  15. #11
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,445

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If you aren't within 3 games with a month left, it's not a good bet to expect to make the playoffs. Yes, things can happen and three games doesn't seem like a big margin, but it really is.
    All 3-game deficits are not created equal.

    3 GB behind only 1 team = very doable
    3 GB behind 3 teams = very unlikely

  16. Likes:

    757690 (07-26-2014), RedsManRick (07-26-2014), toledodan (07-26-2014)

  17. #12
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,684

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    All 3-game deficits are not created equal.

    3 GB behind only 1 team = very doable
    3 GB behind 3 teams = very unlikely
    Yep. I would add not just being 3 games behind, but in second place as well, at least 2 games ahead of the third place team. Which is why I find the BP Odds Report of 20% to be rather optimistic.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  18. Likes:

    Norm Chortleton (07-26-2014)

  19. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amarillo,Texas
    Posts
    4,370

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    5 games back of the division, 5 games back of the wild card, they have a chance.

  20. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,489

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yep. I would add not just being 3 games behind, but in second place as well, at least 2 games ahead of the third place team. Which is why I find the BP Odds Report of 20% to be rather optimistic.
    The adjusted odds are just 13%, which seems a lot more likely.

  21. Likes:

    757690 (07-26-2014)

  22. #15
    There's no Walt only Zuul villain612's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    988

    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    On August 26, there need to be in Cincinnati to play the Cubs. If they are not there then they have real problems.

    Well, if they do end up making a run, that's a perfect team to start it against.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25