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Thread: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playoffs?

  1. #1
    Chicks dig the wRC+ villain612's Avatar
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    Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playoffs?

    Let's stipulate two things.

    Reds don't make any deals before the deadline.

    And Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips come back at the end of August.

    I chose August 26th because it is one month from today. I know the 7 game losing streak took the wind out of all the playoff talk, but the second wild card spot really does keep things possible for a team like the Reds. As it stands now, they're 3 games back in the WC, 5.5 in the division (depending on what MIL does tonight).

    Obviously, if they keep playing the way they have in the past week, then their season is done. But I think it's fair to assume that Hamilton, Frazier, Mesoraco, and even Bruce won't continue this for the rest of the season.


    So one month from today, when we get our guys back, how close do we need to be in the division and wild card standings to have a shot at a September run.
    Quote Originally Posted by fipp View Post
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    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Others have mentioned having to play well over .600 ball from here on in. They've not done that except in minute stretches this season. My recommendation? Just enjoy the performances of the players.

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Within 5 games of first place, they should be fine.

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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Others have mentioned having to play well over .600 ball from here on in. They've not done that except in minute stretches this season. My recommendation? Just enjoy the performances of the players.
    They played .667 ball over an entire month this season. Just last month.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    On August 26, there need to be in Cincinnati to play the Cubs. If they are not there then they have real problems.

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    If you aren't within 3 games with a month left, it's not a good bet to expect to make the playoffs. Yes, things can happen and three games doesn't seem like a big margin, but it really is.

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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    They played .667 ball over an entire month this season. Just last month.
    Bruce is going to have to turn into a 1.100 OPS player for the next two months.

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    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    It comes down to what you mean by realistic. What odds count as realistic?

    Coming in to today's game, BP's Odds Report had the Reds at a 20% chance to make the playoffs. For me, that's pretty much the dividing line. But if we're at 30 games left, I think Doug is probably about right. If you're not within 3 games of that spot, it's awfully hard to be optimistic.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Look at the offense since the AS break. They are going to have to win a whole lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games to stay in contention - the subs they have just aren't that good as everyday players. Every one is primarily a glove first guy. I'd agree with Doug. 3 games with 30 to go is hard to overcome. So is having to climb 3 teams. Even the 2nd WC is a long shot if there are 3 games and multiple teams ahead. I'd say they have to gain 3 games between now and the last week of August to have any real shot at all.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Be within 3 games and have votto and Phillips back healthy.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

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    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If you aren't within 3 games with a month left, it's not a good bet to expect to make the playoffs. Yes, things can happen and three games doesn't seem like a big margin, but it really is.
    All 3-game deficits are not created equal.

    3 GB behind only 1 team = very doable
    3 GB behind 3 teams = very unlikely

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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    All 3-game deficits are not created equal.

    3 GB behind only 1 team = very doable
    3 GB behind 3 teams = very unlikely
    Yep. I would add not just being 3 games behind, but in second place as well, at least 2 games ahead of the third place team. Which is why I find the BP Odds Report of 20% to be rather optimistic.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    5 games back of the division, 5 games back of the wild card, they have a chance.

  20. #14
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yep. I would add not just being 3 games behind, but in second place as well, at least 2 games ahead of the third place team. Which is why I find the BP Odds Report of 20% to be rather optimistic.
    The adjusted odds are just 13%, which seems a lot more likely.

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  22. #15
    Chicks dig the wRC+ villain612's Avatar
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    Re: Realistically, where do the Reds need to be on Aug 26 to make a run at the playof

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    On August 26, there need to be in Cincinnati to play the Cubs. If they are not there then they have real problems.

    Well, if they do end up making a run, that's a perfect team to start it against.
    Quote Originally Posted by fipp View Post
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